The More Things Change the More They Stay the Same
Over the next couple days dozens of Canadian income trusts will complete conversions into tax-paying corporations. When trading opens on Monday, investors who own trusts may have difficulty tracking down up-to-date unit prices, as many companies will change both their Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and their US over-the-counter (OTC) symbols.
Rest easy, folks. We’ll be tracking changes and updating the Canadian Edge How They Rate and Portfolio tables as quickly as we can; we’ll mitigate as much of the confusion as possible. The situation, however, is likely to mirror what happened way back in the fall of 2006: The anticipation of the consequences of Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s Halloween bombshell proved much more frightening than the reality. It’s hard to tease this out, what with the damage wrought to the global financial system and the world economy in recent years, but the four years since Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government backtracked on a campaign promise and decided to tax trusts out of existence have turned out much better than those who heard death knells in Flaherty’s announcement.
Be sure to check in at www.CanadianEdge.com frequently next week. We’ll be publishing updated conversion completion information and new ticker symbols, where necessary, in as close to real time as we can manage. We’re prepared to deal with this latest round of short-term confusion, all the while with an eye on the bigger picture. Looking from the US north to Canada, the view is certainly attractive. Solid if unspectacular governance, rising appetites in emerging economies and the hints of a durable recovery in the US: These are the elements of Canada’s strength heading into the second decade of the 21st century. Our neighbor is a model for the world on several key issues, and it remains an important market for US investors.
The Great White North is now known the world over for the quality of its financial system. Canada’s Big Six banks, now expanding again into the US, are the envy of major institutions for their ability to withstand the recent crisis and expand their footprints in its aftermath. These are circumstances borne of a rational approach to regulatory oversight.
Although the Canadian system is highly concentrated, the Big Six derive most of their strength from domestic retail operations. Headline-grabbing quarter to quarter earnings per share figures have been driven by trading recently, but long-term health is determined by the soundness of the deposit base.
Fortunately, the employment situation in Canada is markedly different than in the US. At the headline level the comparison could hardly be more favorable: The unemployment rate in Canada is down to 7.6 percent, more than two full percentage points lower than in the US and the lowest rate in more than two years.
That the Canadian employment situation didn’t deteriorate is a function of the federal government’s ability to respond with a stimulus package that made up for demand lost because of weakness in the US and other markets. The seeds of Canada’s strength were planted in the aftermath of its “Great Recession,” which took place in the early 1990s. The sitting Liberal government, prompted by similar belt-tightening actions at the provincial level, undertook a massive budget-cutting effort that is, too, becoming a model for other governments, such as the UK.
Prudence on the regulatory front obviated a debilitating subprime crisis, while austerity in the decade preceding made what was a Great Recession elsewhere routine. Canada, unique among the developed economies, isn’t burdened by bloated public debt levels, and its ability to respond to future crises hasn’t been compromised.
Another factor that separates Canada from its developed peers is its resource base, particularly the promise stored within Alberta’s oil sands. Energy information provider Platt’s reported in early December that Chinese oil demand reached 9.3 million barrels per day in November, a record for the Middle Kingdom. And US commercial supplies declined three times faster than analysts anticipated for the most recently reported week. The per barrel price of oil, reacting to these signs of gathering economic strength, surged past USD90.
New demand from Asia, old demand in the developed world and a desire from investors for hard assets will keep the per barrel price of oil elevated over the next 12 months. And that, in turn, will keep the Canadian dollar elevated versus the US dollar.
The Canadian Leading Indicators Index, like the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, includes 10 components that “lead” cyclical economic activity and together represent all major categories of GDP. The index rose 0.3 percent in November, (data for December 2010 will be available Jan. 21), the same as in October. Six of the 10 components were higher, three were unchanged and one declined.
The housing index recorded the largest turnaround, as both starts and existing sales firmed after sizable retreats from their highs in the spring. Furniture and appliance sales leveled off after four straight declines, reflecting the upturn in housing. Spending on other durable goods continued to advance steadily. Manufacturing demand continued to improve, as new orders rose 0.7 percent. The ratio of shipments to inventories was unchanged for a third month, as the growth of inventories has caught up to the recovery of sales.
The Toronto Stock Exchange posted a 2.8 percent gain in November, driven by strength in commodity prices. The US leading indicator component rose a modest 0.2 percent.
The factors that allowed Canada to avoid the worst of the Great Recession now will allow it prosper amid a rapidly shifting global economic landscape. Multiple governments led by different parties have made responsible decisions on financial regulation and fiscal policy. And Canadians have long benefitted from provincial and federal management of natural resources.
To call this “The Canadian Century” would be hyperbole. It’s no stretch to say, however, that American investors interested in preserving and building wealth for the long term needs to have exposure to the Great White North.
Canadian income trusts will give us one final bout of bureaucracy-driven confusion. This, too, shall pass. And when it’s over we’ll still be looking at a set of solid businesses spinning off the highest yields in the world. That’s the way to build wealth over the long term, “Canadian income trusts” or not.
The Roundup
Many of the issues surrounding the last days of 2010 and the first days of 2011 are covered in a Dec. 20 Flash Alert that also details the curious circumstances with now former Portfolio Holdings Bell Aliant Regional Communications Income Fund (TSX: BA-U, OTC: BLIAF) and Canfor Pulp Income Fund (TSX: CFX-U, OTC: CFPUF).
The most critical information, regardless of organizational structure or tax status, remains what comes out during quarterly reporting season. Here are estimated reporting dates (except where noted) for Portfolio Holdings.
Aggressive Holdings
- Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Mar. 11, 2011
- ARC Energy Trust (TSX: AET-U, OTC: AETUF)–Feb. 9, 2011
- Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Feb. 24, 2011
- Consumers’ Waterheater Income Fund (TSX: CWI-U, OTC: CSUWF)–Mar. 1, 2011
- Daylight Energy Ltd (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–Mar. 2, 2011
- Enerplus Resources Fund (TSX: ERF-U, NYSE: ERF)–Feb. 25, 2011
- Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Mar. 2, 2011
- Parkland Income Fund (TSX: PKI-U, OTC: PKIUF)–Mar. 2, 2011
- Penn West Energy Trust (TSX: PWT-U, NYSE: PWE)–Feb. 18, 2011
- Perpetual Energy (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–Mar. 9, 2011
- Peyto Energy Trust (TSX: PEY-U, OTC: PEYUF)–Mar. 10, 2011
- Phoenix Technology Income Fund (TSX: PHX-U, OTC: PHXHF)–Mar. 3, 2011
- Provident Energy Trust (TSX: PVE-U, NYSE: PVX)–Mar. 11, 2011
- Vermillion Energy (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Mar. 3, 2011
- Yellow Media (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF)–Feb. 11, 2011
Conservative Holdings
- AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Feb. 23, 2011
- Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Mar. 16, 2011
- Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Mar. 29, 2011
- Bird Construction Income Fund (TSX: BDT-U, OTC: BIRDF)–Mar. 11, 2011
- Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)–Feb. 9, 2011
- Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–Feb. 24, 2011
- Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund (TSX: CGX-U, OTC: CPXGF)–Feb. 11, 2011
- CML Healthcare Income Fund (TSX: CLC-U, OTC: CMHIF)–Mar. 4, 2011
- Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Feb. 24, 2011
- Davis + Henderson Income Fund (TSX: DHF-U, OTC: DHIFF)–Mar. 2, 2011
- IBI Income Fund (TSX: IBG-U, OTC: IBIBF)–Mar. 17, 2011
- Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Mar. 22, 2011
- Just Energy Income Fund (TSX: JE-U, OTC: JUSTF)–Feb. 11, 2011
- Keyera Facilities Income Fund (TSX: KEY-U, OTC: KEYUF)–Feb. 18, 2011
- Macquarie Power & Infrastructure Income Fund (TSX: MPT-U, OTC: MCQPF)–Mar. 2, 2011
- Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Mar. 17, 2011
- Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–Mar. 3, 2011
- RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Feb. 9, 2011
- TransForce (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Mar. 2, 2011 (confirmed)
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