Portfolio Update: Earnings Projections for Two Newbies

Super investor Warren Buffett said: “In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”

To make profitable decisions, you must look through the windshield.

Here’s a summary of fourth-quarter and full-year 2017 projections for the most recent additions to the Breakthrough Tech Profits portfolio: 22nd Century Group (NYSE: XXII) and Vuzix (NSDQ: VUZI). I also provide 2018 projections.

These numbers are based on the consensus of Wall Street. I’ve also factored in my own calculations. These two holdings are volatile small-caps. Their prices fluctuate. As with many of our holdings, they aren’t for the risk-averse. But the long-term payoff could be huge.

Let’s roll up our sleeves and crunch the data.

  • 22nd Century Group

This marijuana and tobacco biotech is expected to report a fourth-quarter loss per share of 2 cents, compared to the per-share loss of 4 cents in the same quarter a year ago. For the full year, the per-share loss is expected to come in at a penny, compared to a loss of 15 cents last year.

At first glance, earnings projections are less than stellar. But losses are narrowing. That’s a good thing.

My methodology for BTP is to remain patient with a lack of solid earnings, as long as I see revenue growth. That’s the reality with fast-evolving, small-cap tech firms. That’s especially true for biotechs such as XXII. Profits can come later, if growing revenue is getting plowed back into the business. XXII meets these criteria.

XXII’s revenue growth in Q4 is projected to come in at nearly 100%. For 2017, it’s projected to reach 45.40%. For 2018, it’s pegged at 20.40%.

XXII’s THC-reduced marijuana products enjoy tailwinds. According to a report released on Dec. 11 by Grand View Research, the global medical cannabis market is expected to reach $55.8 billion in revenue by 2025. This revenue came in at $11.4 billion in 2015.

Currently, 29 states allow the sale of medical cannabis, while cannabis for recreational use is legal in 8 states.

XXII also creates genetically engineered tobacco plants that have 97% less nicotine than conventional strains, the lowest tar-to-nicotine ratio in the cigarette industry. The low-nicotine variety has proven effective in helping smokers kick the habit. It’s gaining the support of tobacco scientists worldwide.

The company this year has hired top scientists. It has added executives from the tobacco industry. And it has recruited lobbyists who are expert at regulations.

One prospect that excites me: 22nd Century Group could partner with large tobacco companies. Or it could get acquired.

XXII remains a buy up to $7.00.

  • Vuzix

Vuzix is expected to report a fourth-quarter per-share loss of 18 cents, compared to the per-share loss of 37 cents in the same quarter a year ago. For the full year, the per-share loss is expected to come in at 90 cents, compared to $1.23 last year.

The same dynamic for XXII applies to VUZI: shrinking earnings losses, accompanied by strong revenue growth.

VUZI’s revenue growth in Q4 is projected to come in at 26.10%. For 2017, it’s projected to reach 26.10%. For 2018, it’s pegged at 38.90%.

A growth catalyst for VUZI occurred December 7. That’s when Vuzix announced a supply agreement with Toshiba (OTC: TOSBF). Under the deal, Vuzix agreed to sell customized smart glasses exclusively to Toshiba. The deal will last 12 months. Toshiba must submit a minimum of $5 million in orders.

TOSBF is based in China. That’s a springboard into Asia. Emerging markets should boom in 2018. Japan’s economy is off the ropes.

Vuzix recently announced that its M300 Smart Glasses are supported by the Vuforia augmented reality (AR) platform from PTC (NSDQ: PTC). Vuforia is the world’s most widely used software platform for AR applications.

Vuzix is expanding production. The company also is shifting its factories to Asia. The goal is to better meet demand in that region. Japan is a vast potential market. This pivot is facilitated by the Toshiba deal.

VUZI remains the stock to watch for the AR revolution. As with XXII, Vuzix is a ripe candidate for acquisition by a tech giant.

Silicon Valley stalwarts such as BTP holding Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) are reportedly eyeing VUZI for a deal or buyout.

VUZI is a buy up to $12.00.

John Persinos is chief investment strategist of Breakthrough Tech Profits.

 

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