There were multiple historic outcomes when all the ballots were counted after Monday’s election in Canada, to the upside for Prime Minister Stephen Harper and New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jack Layton. As for the Liberal Party of Canada, it’s searching for a new message, a new leader and a path back to relevance, while the Bloc Quebecois are a separatist party where serious desire for independence no longer seems to exist.

What all this means for the American investor looking for high yields in Canada is, as was the lead up to the election, tertiary. The primary driver of Canada’s long-term upside will be what we now refer to as “emerging” markets, led by China and India. The secondary factor from an economic perspective is what happens in the US, still the other half of what remains the largest bilateral trade relationship on the planet.

Mr. Harper’s Conservative Party of Canada surpassed the most favorable final poll numbers and the fondest hopes of its supporters on its way to winning 167 seats in the House of Commons, 13 more than the 154 needed to claim a majority. Mr. Harper led the way with a 63-point victory in his own riding, as the Tories won 39.7 percent of the national vote. He’ll form his first majority government in the next couple weeks and settle in for a fixed, four-year term.

The NDP turned big swaths of the Great White north orange during this five-week campaign, benefitting from the perhaps final collapse of the Bloc to win 58 seats in Quebec and 30.6 percent of the national vote. The affable Mr. Layton’s leftist troupe will form a more definite official opposition party, as it surged to 101 seats from just 36 at dissolution of the 40th Parliament to overtake the Liberals.

The Grits no longer can claim to be Canada’s “natural governing party.” Michael Ignatieff, the former Harvard academic who returned home after 27 years abroad as a sort of savior, has already resigned his post as leader of the Liberals after losing his seat in Parliament. The party is headlong into its ritual soul searching, this one the most serious yet. In their eyes a chasm has opened up between Tories and the NDP, to be filled, naturally, by their “centrism.”

The Bloc Quebecois got wiped out. Gilles Duceppe lost the seat in Parliament he’d held since winning a by-election in 1990 and immediately resigned as leader of the party. Founded more than 20 years ago, the Bloc had become the federal voice of those within Quebec who pushed for independence. Under Mr. Duceppe’s leadership the Bloc peaked at 42 seats in Parliament after the 2006 election, but a slide that began in 2008 is now complete.

There’s great potential for high drama based on a new calculus that looks a lot simpler, a lot more like the binary, zero sum game we enjoy in the US. But there’s likely to be little heat, as the Prime Minister simply doesn’t need the help of any his vanquished foes. And excluding Quebec’s 75 seats from the equation Mr. Harper won 49.7 percent of the vote and 161 of the 233 available seats, as close to a mandate as is possible in Canadian politics these days.

Despite his dramatic surge, Mr. Layton still must provide responsible opposition, and he must do so with a caucus full of neophytes and socialists. Mr. Harper’s major challenge is a dual one. He must keep his own caucus together while avoiding any movement toward partisan excess. Leading minority governments for five years, when getting legislation passed depends, as a matter of mechanics, on getting other parties to sign on, has given him valuable experience.

What we’re guaranteed is that Mr. Harper and his Conservatives now have four years to govern without the constant threat of being toppled. A program of corporate tax reduction will run its course, taking Canada’s down to 15 percent by Jan. 1, 2012, lowest among the Group of Seven. A budget tabled in March will likely be passed with only minor adjustments, and a fiscal plan to get back to surplus by 2014-15 will continue.

Canada is unlikely to pursue carbon regulation without movement on same by the US; the new Conservative majority is, however, likely to continue to support the build-out of renewable capacity as a means of attacking the global warming problem. Another way to look at it is that oil and gas producers won’t face the hostility an NDP/Liberal coalition would have meant and they don’t have to deal with corresponding cost uncertainties.

What we have here is one of the world’s most stable, investor-friendly environments. That would have been the case had Mr. Layton and his social democrats won enough seats to establish a government, because the policy differences on the major issues aren’t that stark–the NDP said it would simply stop, not roll back, corporate tax reductions, and it, too, is committed to a budget plan that restores Canada to balance by 2015.

The country is well positioned to benefit from a return to normal economic growth in the US and as more and more emerging market consumers join the global middle class, with all the implications for consumption of natural resources that this implies. The commitment to the Canadian form of universal health care is strong across the parties; but so, too, is the commitment to responsible exploitation of the country’s hard and soft commodities.

The market’s reaction to what was probably the best possible outcome from an investor’s perspective–a resounding win by the Conservatives, a majority government formed by Mr. Harper of energy-rich Alberta–reflects the fact that the domestic situation is of lesser importance than external factors. Oil, sensitive to global growth metrics as well as geopolitics, was down, and so was the S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Index.

Canada has done well, however, to trust the investor-friendly Mr. Harper and the Tories with a majority government for four years. It’s good news for the Canadian dollar. It’s good news for energy producers. It’s good news, too, for wireless competition, as the Conservatives favor loosening rules to allow greater foreign investment in the domestic telecom industry and therefore the funding of new market participants.

The Roundup

Higher crude oil prices and increased production paved the way for an impressive first quarter for the biggest pure play on Canada’s oil sands, and management, as it’s often done in the past, made sure to spread the joy, boosting the quarterly dividend by 50 percent to CAD0.30 per share.

Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (TSX: COS, OTC: COSWF) earned CAD324 million during the first quarter, a CAD0.67 earnings per share mark beating a consensus estimate of CAD0.62. Cash flow more than doubled to CAD478 million.

The stock is up 23.9 percent in 2011 in US dollar terms as of Wednesday’s close, as Syncrude has continued the consistent production performance that began with the fourth quarter of 2010. A series of unplanned outages last year caused many analysts and energy market observers to question whether Syncrude, of which Canadian Oil Sands owns 36.7 percent, would ever meet its considerable potential. Management maintained its 2011 production forecast and reiterated its plan to spend CAD979 million on capital maintenance and improvement in 2011. Turnaround work on a coker at the Syncrude project is scheduled for early fall 2011.

Syncrude averaged 319,300 barrels per day (bpd) of production in January, following up December’s blockbuster 345,800 bpd. Total capacity at present is about 350,000 bpd. The joint venture, whose partial owners include Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE: XOM) Canadian unit Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO, AMEX: IMO), Suncor Energy (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU), Nexen Energy (TSX: NXY, NYSE: NXY) and China Petroleum & Chemical Company (Hong Kong: 0386, NYSE: SNP), also known as Sinopec, produced 336,100 bpd in February and 309,700 in March.

For the quarter production averaged 121,000 bpd net to Canadian Oil Sands. Syncrude is able to produce about 350,000 barrels of oil per day. And Syncrude continues to enjoy what’s becoming a durable premium for the price of its light, low-sulfur synthetic oil over West Texas Intermediate.

Management forecast 2011 Syncrude production of 110 million barrels, which works out to 40.4 million barrels net to Canadian Oil Sands. The range is 102 million to 115 million barrels, roughly an average of 301,400 barrels per day, 110,700 net to Canadian Oil Sands.

Canadian Oil Sands’ results were quietly received on Bay Street, as all 12 analysts who cover the stock maintained their current opinion in the aftermath of the announcement. Two rate the stock a hold, nine rate it a hold, while three say to sell. The stock closed Wednesday at USD32.66, within a volatile day’s trading of the USD34 average analyst target price. We’ve bumped our buy target to USD33, where the stock would yield 3.8 percent based on the newly raised dividend.

Here’s the first-quarter earnings announcement schedule for the CE Portfolio. Those companies that have reported or will report by close of business Thursday will be covered in the May Portfolio Update on Friday afternoon. We’ll cover the remainder via Flash Alert between now and the June issue.

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–May 2 (announced)
• Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–May 4 (announced)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–May 5 (estimate)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Daylight Energy Ltd (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–May 6 (estimate)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–May 10 (confirmed)
• Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–May 13 (confirmed)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–May 9 (confirmed)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–May 13 (estimate)
• Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–May 5 (confirmed)
• Perpetual Energy (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–May 12 (estimate)
• PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)–May 11 (confirmed)
• Vermillion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF)–May 5 (confirmed)

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–May 5 (confirmed)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–May 12 (estimate)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–May 11 (confirmed)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)–May 12 (confirmed)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–May 9 (confirmed)
• Capstone Infrastructure Corp/Macquarie Infrastructure Corp (TSX: CSE, OTC: MCQPF)–May 4 (announced)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–May 12 (confirmed)
• CML Healthcare Inc (TSX: CLC, OTC: CMHIF)–May 5 (estimate)
• Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–May 4 (announced)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–May 10 (confirmed)
• Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–May 6 (estimate)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JSTEF)–May 20 (estimate)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–May 10 (confirmed)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Jun. 14 (confirmed)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–May 6 (estimate)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–May 19 (confirmed)
• TransForce (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–May 17 (confirmed)