800-Pound Gorilla

Share prices of most uranium producers plummeted in the immediate wake of the Fukushima. Since then, the group for the most part has traded sideways; investors have remained on the sideline, awaiting greater clarity on the impact of the accident on global nuclear demand growth.

Many countries announced a pause in the construction of new reactors and/or a comprehensive safety audits in March, a process that takes time to complete. But recent announcements from China, Japan, India and the UK have affirmed that nuclear power’s future remains bright. Germany and Switzerland’s decisions to phase out their nuclear power programs shouldn’t damage the industry’s growth prospects.

It took a few months for shares of deepwater drillers to stabilize after last year’s Gulf oil spill. The same is true of the uranium mining stocks in the wake of the disaster at Fukushima Dai-ichi. The other factor weighing on all stocks is the macroeconomic picture 

Here’s a look at my top uranium mining play.

Cameco Corp (TSX: CCO; NYSE: CCJ), the 800-pound gorilla of the uranium mining industry, is the largest pure-play miner of yellowcake and is a must-own for investors interested in profiting from rising demand for uranium.

In 2010 Cameco produced 22.8 million pounds of uranium oxide, a significant portion of the 180 million pound per annum global uranium market. Production was up roughly 10 percent from 2009 levels and 32 percent from 2008.

Management’s long-term, “double-U” strategy calls for the company to increase its uranium output to about 40 million pounds per year by 2018. To accomplish this, Cameco plans to maintain or slightly increase output from its existing major mines, including MacArthur River and Key Lake in Canada and the Inkai mines in Kazakhstan. These are some of the richest and cheapest-to-produce uranium mines in the world.

In addition, the company has a series of major projects underway. The largest is the long-delayed Cigar Lake mine in Canada. The company appears to have finally brought its water flooding issues at the facility under control and expects the facility to produce about 1 million pounds annually from the mine by 2013. The mine’s annual output could ram up to at least 5.6 million pounds by the latter half of the decade.

Cameco also owns US mines that are produced using in-situ leach (ISL) technology, whereby water and some chemicals are pumped into the ground to dissolve the uranium. The water and uranium mix is then pumped to the surface and the uranium extracted. The firm’s ISL projects in the US are being expanded, and management’s latest guidance is for production to grow from 2.5 million pounds per annum to 3.8 million pounds per annum by 2015.

With the potential to double its uranium production in less than a decade, Cameco Corp rates a buy under USD33 in the Nuclear Power Field Bet.

Note that I’ve lowered the buy target to reflect Cameco’s post-Fukushima trading range– not because my assessment of the company’s underlying value has changed. As uranium prices rebound in late 2011 and into 2012, the stock could easily hit USD50 per share.

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