The Trouble with RIM

What defines the smartphone space right now is a race to produce new products that answer questions more than just tech junkies are asking. The whole world–especially Asia and Latin America–wants new mobile features for their handheld devices. Pressure to compete in this race is intense, on the ground and in the popularity contest that is the stock market. Not even clean balance sheets, huge piles of cash and track records of industry-leading innovation satisfy investors, or even company insiders.

Market research firm IDC forecast global smartphone unit growth of 55 percent in 2011 and for worldwide sales to approach a billion by the end of 2015. Smartphone makers shipped 305 million units in 2010, which should rise to 472 million this year. According to IDC, “The smartphone floodgates are wide open.”

Right now Research in Motion (TSX: RIM, NSDQ: RIMM)–Canada’s most important technology company–seems to be foundering.

It’s now been several months of profit warnings, product delays and a sliding share price for the company that essentially created the smartphone way back in the 20th century. Drama from this huge-money game spilled out onto the Internet this week, as a “high level” executive from RIM leaked an unsigned “open letter” to the tech-centric blog Boy Genius Report that eviscerated the company’s top leadership for failing to keep up with the times.

RIM’s stock price is below USD29 on the Nasdaq today (it’s Canada Day in the Great White North, and the Toronto Stock Exchange is closed), a far cry from the peak it reached in June 2008 near USD145. Shareholder value has been cut in half in 2011. In mid-June management announced a second-quarter revenue forecast of USD4.2 billion to USD4.8 billion, with earnings per share of USD0.75 to USD1.05 excluding one-time charges; both estimates are below Wall Street expectations.

RIM isn’t the only player to be hit by rising competition in the smartphone space. The vaunted Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) is headed for its worst first half in terms of stock price performance since 2008. It’s been more than a year since Apple entered the tablet market with the iPad, and the next iteration of the iPhone isn’t due until September. Shareholders want a new golden goose, even though Apple has reported profit growth of 75 percent over the past two quarters.

Even Google (NSDQ: GOOG), seen by many observers as the primary threat to Apple’s dominance, is down 13 percent this year. And although it will continue to lead the global market (38.9 percent share, according to IDC, compared to 18.2 percent for Apple), in the US the next iPhone will eat Android up as customers, particularly from Verizon Wireless, which added Apple as a supplier this year, grab the shiny new object. In March the iPhone accounted for 29.5 percent of the US market, up from 17.2 percent in December. Android accounted for 49.5 percent, down from 52.4 percent in December.

Much of the criticism leveled at RIM focuses on its leadership. The company is run by the guy who founded the company and now serves one its co-CEOs, Mike Lazaridis, and the guy he hired to help him run the business, Jim Balsillie. Mr. Lazaridis and Mr. Balsillie also co-chair RIM’s board of directors. This morning the Toronto Globe & Mail reported that, finally caving to outside pressures, the co-CEOs/co-chairmen have surrendered somewhat, agreeing to the creation of an independent committee of the board that will study the bipolar arrangement.

RIM introduced its first BlackBerry in 1999, turning founder Mike Lazaridis’ desire to send and receive e-mail on a cell phone into a communications revolution. Apple (NSDQ: AAPL) has since made a mockery of RIM’s mockery of its desire to put a computer on a phone. And, in turn, Google, the search firm that’s redefined computing, is casting a monster shadow over a vulnerable Apple with its Android “software stack” for mobile devices.

RIM’s setup provides an easy, unfavorable comparison to its recent better, Apple, and its seeming one-man show, Steve Jobs. Mr. Jobs’ health is a perpetual concern, however, and he has recently been on a leave of absence to receive medical treatment. It’s worth noting, too, that the biggest threat to Apple’s new era, Google, once struggled with the question of dual leadership, which resulted in Eric Schmidt’s successful run as CEO.

RIM’s descent from dominance to desperation in a matter of months is as much about vicissitudes of consumer demand and investor sentiment as it is about management. Yes, accepting the anonymous dispatch to BGR.com at face value Mr. Lazaridis and Mr. Balsillie have fallen out of step with end-users, and the challenge to recapture their imagination is undeniably difficult. But this is far from a question of competence–imagination, perhaps.

A business with no debt, billions in cash and a still-formidable market position–including dominance of the corporate market, where its secure, proprietary e-mail platform is a major plus–is a solid one. It may not be spectacular anymore, but that’s not what we’re focused on at Canadian Edge. We’re about building wealth over the long term. That’s about locking in high, sustainable yields at solid valuations.

RIM is likely a long way off from declaring its first dividend, but at these levels there’s a compelling value story, even potential for considerable upside should it become the target of a takeover attempt or its still-respectable development team hit the mark with its next smartphone or tablet.

RIM, as management argued in its response to the anonymous letter posted at BGR.com, has CADD3 billion in cash, generated net income of CAD695 million and grew considerably in international markets in the first quarter–67 percent year over year. It shipped 100 smartphones per minute, 24 hours per day, during the first 12 weeks of 2011, a total of 13.2 million BlackBerrys.

It may not be as fast-growing in North America as it once was, but RIM and its BlackBerry still form a ubiquitous bramble.

The Roundup

The price of oil, as we’ve often noted in this space and in regular monthly issues of Canadian Edge, is a key determinant of the health of Canada’s economy. When crude’s on the rise, Canadians’ wealth increases; when the sticky stuff loses value, so, too does purchasing power in the Great White North erode.

The idea that we’ve entered a new era of permanently high prices for oil–at least relative to what we knew in the 20th century–was once again reinforced in recent weeks, as an aggressive effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to bring down oil prices seems to have had precisely the opposite short-term affect.

The IEA announced last week that its 28 member countries had agreed to release 60 million barrels from their combined strategic stockpiles, with the US contributing half the total and entirely easily processed sweet crude. Thirty million barrels represents about 10 percent of the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) of 293 million barrels of sweet crude oil, about 4 percent of the entire 727 million barrels stockpiled in the SPR.

When the SPR release was announced on Jun. 23 the price of Brent crude fell 6.1 percent, West Texas Intermediate 4.6 percent. Today WTI has recovered to above USD95, while Brent is north of USD110 again.

Myriad factors contribute to movements in the price of oil. Today, so goes the explanation, the market is pleased with recent measures of manufacturing activity in the US. (The Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing was stronger than anticipated in June; its main index spiked to 55.3 from 53.5 in May, against a consensus expectation for a drop to 52.) But next week it’s likely that employment numbers from the US Dept of Labor will undermine whatever confidence this metric inspired among the skittish.

The long-term problem of satisfying demand for oil from emerging middle class consumers in Asia and other high-growth regions is the primary cause of triple-digit oil prices. This factor is constantly changing, and to the further stress of existing resources. Explorers and producers are drilling deeper, in more remote areas, at greater cost. A one-time release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve–or even more, until this supply runs dry–does nothing to alter the basic equation of rapidly rising demand and increasingly constricted supply.

Because of its ample resource base–particularly oil–in proportion to its population Canada will continue to enjoy an advantaged position during what’s still a wrenching transition period for the global economy.

Another former member of the British Commonwealth, Australia, is blessed with similar resource-to-people metrics. And it’s much closer to the engine that’s driving rising demand for commodities, China. Roger and I took a look at the Land Down Under for the current issue of Personal Finance. “With investors fixated on near-term challenges rather than long-term growth potential,” we write, “now is a great time for income-seeking investors to buy Australian equities.”

As a special Independence Day preview, here’s anexcerpt from the Jun. 22, 2001, PF, featuring actionable advice on three Australian wealth-builders.

Cement, concrete and lime products are essential to any construction project. So are clinker, fly ash and slag. Building materials giant Adelaide Brighton (ASX: ABC, OTC: ABDCF) holds the No. 1 or No. 2 position in many key categories and complements its product offerings with a full range of integrated services. Business has been particularly strong in Australia’s resource-rich regions.

The company’s history of steady dividend growth underscores its ability to grow in all economic environments. Management expects the company to post robust earnings growth in the back half of 2011 and has invested AUD100 million on expansion efforts. Buy Adelaide Brighton’s American depositary receipt (ADR) up to USD3.50.

Australia’s largest owner of natural gas transmission and distribution assets, APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF) continues to add to its track record of reliable dividend growth. Management’s latest forecast calls for the company to boost its annualized payout by another 5 percent.

Australian companies pay dividends twice annually, typically disbursing a smaller interim payment and a larger final dividend. APA Group has raised both payouts for six consecutive years, a testament to the company’s steady earnings growth.

Over the course of its 11-year existence, the company has accumulated AUD8 billion in assets that now ship approximately half of Australia’s gas–and that’s excluding stakes in other companies. Management’s agenda includes an additional AUD1 billion in expansion projects.

In the first half of its fiscal 2011, APA Group’s net income surged 10.4 percent, yielding a payout ratio based on operating cash flow of 53.6 percent. Dividend growth is supported by “net tangible asset per security” growth, a key metric that hit an annualized rate of 9 percent in this six-month period.

The company’s balance sheet is solid, with internal cash flow funding some 67 percent of investment expenditure, and the company has hedged aggressively against rising interest rates. Buy APA Group’s ADR up to USD5.

Foster’s Group (ASX: FGL, OTC: FBRWY) controls 50 percent of Australia’s beer market, boasts a globally recognized brand and a sustainable dividend. Management’s new strategic tack should also pay off for investors. Earlier this year, the company spun off its wine production operations to focus solely on beer. Although unit-price growth has slowed in Australia, a loyal customer base ensures that the company generates a reliable stream of cash flow. Management also has done well to manage costs.

We’re not the only ones interested in Foster’s Group’s growth story; rumors suggest that the company is a potential takeover target for Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP). Buy Foster’s Group’s ADR up to USD5.

Following are estimated (in most cases) and confirmed (for a handful) second-quarter reporting dates for the CE Portfolio. We’ll update the list as official dates are announced.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Jul. 29 (estimate)
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Aug. 11 (estimate)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Aug. 5 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPUF)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • Capstone Infrastructure Corp (TSX: CSE, OTC: MCQPF)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Aug. 12 (estimate)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Jul. 7 (estimate)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–Aug. 5 (estimate)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–Aug. 4 (estimate)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Aug. 10 (confirmed)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JUSTF)–Aug. 12 (estimate)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Aug. 3 (confirmed)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Aug. 9 (confirmed)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–Aug. 5 (estimate)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Jul. 29 (estimate)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Aug. 1 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–Jul. 27 (confirmed)
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Aug. 11 (estimate)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Aug. 4 (estimate)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Jul. 28 (estimate)
  • Daylight Energy Ltd (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–Aug. 3 (estimate)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–Aug. 5 (confirmed)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Aug. 5 (estimate)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Aug. 12 (estimate)
  • Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–Aug. 4 (estimate)
  • Perpetual Energy Inc (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–Aug. 10 (estimate)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–Aug. 11 (estimate)
  • PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–Aug. 5 (estimate)
  • Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)–Aug. 11 (estimate)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Aug. 9 (estimate)
  • Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF)–Aug. 5 (estimate)

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account