ExxonMobil Gets the Worm
As the shale oil and gas revolution has picked up steam over the past several years, several important trends have emerged that will separate the winners from the losers.
The combination of depressed natural gas prices in North America and robust oil prices has prompted independent producers to ramp up drilling activity in fields rich in oil, condensate and natural gas liquids (NGL) while reining in operations in Louisiana’s Haynesville Shale and other dry-gas plays. By many accounts, natural gas production has become incidental to these higher-value hydrocarbons.
Besides focusing on a company’s production mix, investors must also evaluate the economics and quality of a producer’s acreage. First movers in oil- and liquids-rich plays have the opportunity to snap up the best acreage at a fraction of the costs incurred by late entrants.
For example, Marathon Oil Corp (NYSE: MRO) recently paid $3.5 billion for 141,000 acres (about $21,000 per acre) in the Eagle Ford Shale from Hilcorp Resources Holdings LP. The deal surpassed the $16,000 per acre that Korea National Oil Corp paid to Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) to establish a foothold in this liquids-rich shale play.
Integrated energy giant ExxonMobil Corp (NYSE: XOM), which in 2010 forked over $41 billion to purchase shale-gas producer XTO Energy, has apparently learned this lesson.
In late August, ExxonMobil announced that it will spend as much as $76.3 million to explore and develop 45 percent of Canadian junior producer Americas Petrogas’ (TSX-V: BOE) leasehold in Argentina’s Neuquen Basin, one of the more exciting emerging shale plays outside the US. The company will drill its first well in the region in the fourth quarter.
Spanish energy giant Repsol (Madrid: REP, OTC: REPYY) in July announced that its Bajada de Anelo X-2 exploration well had yielded 250 barrels of oil per day from the Vaca Muerte shale formation.
US operator EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) added 100,000 acres in the Neuquen Basin to its exploration portfolio in the second quarter and plans to sink two wells in this acreage in early 2012. During a recent conference call, CEO Mark Papa noted that he expected results from the play to help operators overcome a lack of hydraulic fracturing and other equipment in the country:
[T]he major service companies are in a process of shifting additional frac [hydraulic fracturing] equipment down there, and for the first couple wells, it’s going to be kind of one-off deals that we’ll have to schedule months and months in advance to get the fracs done. But our logic is if this shale turns out to be something that is commercial and productive, that you’ll see, particularly the major service companies, just move equipment in there in a 2013 through 2015 time frame. We’re pretty optimistic about the quality of that shale. We charged our people with the only way we’d go outside North America is if we could find a shale–an oil shale that we thought looked superior to the Eagle Ford, and we believe we’ve found one there. So time will tell.
Despite the rising interest in the Nequen Basin and the oil- and gas-rich Vaca Muerte formation, Argentina’s tax laws and a lack of infrastructure are formidable challenges. Producers themselves are also in the very early stages of exploring this play.
ExxonMobil recently revealed to the Wall Street Journal that it’s building a leasehold in the red-hot Utica Shale, a formation that lies beneath the Marcellus Shale but extends from Tennessee into Canada. Thus far, the Marcellus has attracted the most attention from investors and producers, though interest has picked up in the Utica–particularly the shallow portion in Ohio and Western Pennsylvania.
For example, Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) has assembled an 110,000-acre leasehold in the play’s oil window and recently noted that a vertical test well indicated that the formation features excellent permeability. During Devon Energy’s conference call to discuss second-quarter results, the head of its exploration and production operations noted that the play’s oil window “could offer some of the best economics in the play.”
CEO Aubrey McClendon and his team at Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) likewise highlighted the firm’s position in the Ohio portion of the Utica during the company’s July 29 conference call. One of the first movers in the play, Chesapeake quietly amassed 1.25 million net acres–by far the largest position in the field–and drilled some of the first test wells, including nine verticals and six horizontals. Over this period, the company has also analyzed 3,200 feet of core samples and more than 2,000 well logs.
McClendon compared this portion of the Utica Shale to the Eagle Ford in South Texas, noting that the field includes three phases: a dry-gas zone in the east; a wet-gas window in the middle; and an oil-rich phase on the western side.
The outspoken CEO boldly suggested that the emerging field would generate better returns than the red-hot Eagle Ford: “[W]e believe the Utica will be economically superior to the Eagle Ford because of the quality of the rock and location of the asset.”
Not only is much of the company’s acreage already held by production, but the relative shallowness of these oil and gas reserves should limit drilling costs. Although management demurred from sharing well results, McClendon did indicate that his team was sufficiently encouraged to ramp up the rig count from one at the beginning of 2011 to eight units by year-end. At the same time, the play will require a substantial investment in midstream infrastructure to process and transport the oil, NGLs and natural gas to market.
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With the US economy likely to grow at a lackluster pace over the next few years, expect the stock market to suffer through a period of extreme volatility as investors adjust to the new normal. The EU’s ongoing sovereign-debt crisis will also continue to enervate investors. Throw in “Black Swan” events such as the civil war in Libya, and it’s easy to see why investors are on edge. A fearmongering media that focuses on worst-case scenarios rather than the likely outcomes doesn’t help matters.
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