Updates to Elliott’s Best Buys List
1. I’m removing land driller Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR) from the Best Buys List as of this issue. I continue to like the company’s long-term growth story the new CEO’s strategy of selling off noncore assets and reducing Nabors debt burden. The firm will also benefit from continued strong drilling activity in US unconventional oil plays such as the Bakken Shale of North Dakota.
But Nabors Industries lacks immediate upside catalysts and weak sentiment surrounding names with exposure to weak drilling activity in shale gas plays will weigh on the stock. The Best Buys list is intended to be a list of our most timely recommendations. For investors with a longer time horizon, Nabors Industries rates a buy up to 20 in the Aggressive Portfolio.
2. Units of Mid-Con Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: MCEP) pulled back earlier this month when an analyst at Raymond James Financial (NYSE: RJF) downgraded the stock to “Market Perform” from “Outperform.” Normally, a single brokerage downgrade wouldn’t have much of an impact on a stock, but Mid-Con Energy Partners LP is still new to the public market and has averaged about 40,000 in daily trading volume. That means it doesn’t take much selling pressure to hit the stock and trigger other investors’ stops.
Investors should regard this temporary dip as an opportunity to accumulate units of Mid-Con Energy Partners. The master limited partnership (MLP) focuses almost entirely on crude oil production and has no exposure to depressed natural gas prices. Meanwhile, Mid-Con Energy Partners appears on track to grow its production as it outlined in its S-1 registration statement, enabling the MLP to pay out a full-year distribution of $1.90 per unit–equivalent to a distribution yield of about 9 percent. Buy Mid-Con Energy Partners LP up to 26.50.
3. Linn Energy LLC’s (NSDQ: LINE) distribution growth story continues to get better. The company announced the $1.2 billion purchase of properties in the Hugoton Basin from BP (LSE: BP, NYSE: BP) in late February, a $400 million joint venture with Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) in early April and the $175 million acquisition of properties in East Texas shortly thereafter.
This is the fastest pace of acquisitions for Linn in some time, and all these deals should be immediately accretive to cash flows. The company has very little commodity or economic risk, thanks to its aggressive hedge book. Linn Energy has the scope to grow its distribution at a roughly 7 percent to 10 percent annualized pace over the next few years. Linn Energy LLC is a buy under 40.
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