Australia: The Undiscovered Country
Half the country was once literally a dumping ground for the worst criminals in Great Britain. But the number of convicts shipped to New South Wales and other penal colonies pales compared to the immigrants who arrived in Australia in the 1851-to-1871 gold rush, a boom that lifted the population from around 400,000 to more than 1 million.
Now, Australia is the envy of the developed world, a market thriving because of its successful management of a vast store of natural resources and its proximity to fast-growing emerging Asian economies. And Australian companies pay higher dividends than just about any other country in the world, with an aggregate yield as of Dec. 31, 2010, surpassed only by shaky Spain.
Australia was the only developed economy that didn’t contract during the 2007-09 Great Recession, which seemed to knock the entire global economy off track. And in the second quarter of 2011 it grew by an annualized rate of 4.9 percent, news that came as the Group of Seven prepared to meet to discuss further coordination of fiscal and monetary efforts to stave off another downturn.
It’s a combination of in-demand commodities such as coal, natural gas, minerals and base metals that give it emerging-market growth characteristics and stable and transparent institutions that make Australia a second-to-none destination for North American investors looking to build wealth over the long term.
The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), as of Dec. 31, 2010, the ninth-largest stock market in the world in terms of trade value, is home to 16 FT Global 500 companies, including mining giants BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, OTC: RTNTF). BHP, the biggest miner in the world, provides a great look back at Australia generally during the 2000s, as it generated a total return of more than 1,000 percent in US dollar terms from the end of 2000 through 2010. It’s currently yielding 2.9 percent.
Although its reputation is rooted in its vast resources, Australia is a highly developed economy with a structure that looks similar to its Western cousins’, meaning it’s heavy on services, particularly in the financial sector. Despite traditional resistance to mergers among the country’s four largest banks, the group has managed to punch well above what domestic metrics would suggest its outer growth bounds to be, as they’ve all taken advantage of opportunities in emerging Asia.
Australia is also represented on the Global 500 by four of the most stable, globally significant banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (ASX: CBA, OTC: CMWAY, CBAUF), the No. 1 bank Down Under with a market cap of AUD72.1 billion; Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC, NYSE: WBK), the second-largest with a AUD58.4 billion market cap; Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANZBY, ANEWF), No. 3 at AUD50.2 billion; and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB, OTC: NABZY, NAUBF) is No. 4 at AUD47.9 billion.
Note that these banks pay among the highest dividends in the world–an average of 7.7 percent–and that four were ranked among Global Finance magazine’s “World’s Safest Banks” for 2010. Investors want consistent cash flow, and Australia’s Big Four provide it. We’ll take a closer look at the “four pillars” of the Australian financial system–its biggest four banks–in a coming issue of Down Under Digest.
“High dividends” is a common theme for the entire Australian share market. Data compiled by Skloff Financial Group reveals that Australia has never ranked lower then No. 6 among the top 20 global markets, including developed as well as emerging economies, in terms of overall dividend yield by country, and since 2003 it’s never been lower than No. 3. As of Dec. 31, 2010, Australia’s dividend yield was 4.09 percent, second only to struggling Spain, at 6.16 percent, in the global rankings. The US was yielding 1.86 percent, good for No. 17 in the world.
Other Australian names among the FT Global 500–the Financial Times ranks companies by market capitalization in US dollar terms as of Mar. 31, 2011–include diversified retailer Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES, OTC: WFAFY, WFAFF), oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX: WPL, OTC: WOPEY, WOPEF), Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TLSYY), the biggest telecommunications in Australia, food and drug retailer Woolworths Ltd (ASX: WOW, OTC: WOLWF), real estate investment trust Westfield Group (ASX: WDC, OTC: WFGPY, WEFIF) pharmaceuticals and biotechnology outfit CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHY, CMXHF) and QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE, OTC: QBIEY, QBEIF), which sells basically everything but life insurance, are repeat members of the Global 500.
Three Australian companies–gold producer Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGY, NCMGF), industrial metals and mining outfit Fortescue Metals Ltd (ASX: FMG, OTC: FSUMY, FSUMF) and multi-utility Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGY, OGFGF)–ascended to the 2011 Global 500, raising Australia’s total representation from 13 in 2010, as no Australian companies fell off the list.
All these companies pay dividends, several will be included in the Australian Edge Portfolio-which will debut in October–and all of them will feature in AE’s How They Rate coverage universe. Last week we focused on APA Group Ltd (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF). APA isn’t among the FT Global 500, but it does rely for most of its cash flow on fee-based and contracted revenue, and it does yield north of 8 percent. We’ll take another look at APA Group in the context of Australia’s high-total-return energy and mining infrastructure industry in an upcoming DUD.
That the ranks of Australian companies big enough to list among the world’s biggest has grown by 23 percent is further reflection of the country’s enduring presence amid a rapidly evolving global economic landscape. So was the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Sept. 7 report that second-quarter GDP grew by 1.2 percent sequentially and 1.4 percent year over year. This report belied consensus expectations of 1 percent quarter-over-quarter expansion and 0.7 percent year-over-year expansion.
It’s a healthy reversal from the weather-driven contraction in the first quarter of 2011 and a sign that Australia’s commodity-rich economy is more resilient than even the experts understand. That Australia turned in a robust growth number is nothing new. In fact Australia has grown at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent for almost 20 years, well above the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development average of 2.5 percent.
What’s startling about the most recent GDP figure is how it stands out relative to the rest of the world, against Australia’s fellow developed economies in particular. In the Northern Hemisphere talk among the cognoscenti is of recession, as in a second leg down following the historic 2007-2009 contraction. The consensus forecast is moving up from about a 33 percent chance of “two consecutive quarters of negative GDP” to 50 percent.
Meanwhile, Australia rebounded strongly from near-catastrophic level flooding in Queensland and other natural disasters that disrupted coal and agricultural production and dampened growth from January to March. Unemployment, though it ticked up to a 10-month high in August–to 5.3 percent from 5.1 percent. That’s another stark contrast with the 9.1 percent–and rising, again–in the United States. Another former British Commonwealth Nation that’s become a 21st economic champion, Canada, is the only developed country that comes close, with unemployment at 7.1 percent.
Of course, Canada’s major trading partner–with which it forms the largest bilateral trade relationship on the planet–is the US, which is still suffering the effects of the collapse of the 2000s credit bubble. That the Great White North has been able to survive and thrive despite the considerable headwinds American weakness presents is testimony to its ability to diversify its international trade relationships, most critically with, and unsurprisingly, China.
One of the key drivers of Australia’s economic resilience in since 2000 has been its growing trade relationship with emerging Asian nations, including the Middle Kingdom and India. It also has a robust trade relationship with Japan. Next week we’ll dig deeper into Australia’s export relationships, what’s driving growth now and what will propel the economy–and investor returns–in years ahead.
Stock Talk
Add New Comments
You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account