From the Great White North to the Land Down Under
Welcome to Australian Edge.
Needless to say it’s an interesting time to start a new investment advisory–particularly one focused on Australia, particularly just as the Standard & Poor’s/Australian Securities Exchange 200 Index is hitting two-year closing lows.
What seems inauspicious at first glance is likely to prove a short-term buying opportunity, however, as the forces that have made the Land Down Under compelling investment story thus far in the 21st century are likely to persist throughout its second decade.
Our goal at Australian Edge is to identify high-quality businesses capable of sustaining and growing dividends and building wealth for investors over the long term. In Brief–the segment you’re reading now–is the “executive summary” of the monthly issue. Here you’ll find commentary and context on markets and the economy as well as synopses of current-issue content. We’ll also summarize changes to Portfolio buy/hold/sell advice. Use In Brief as a guide to points of interest.
Why Australia now? For one thing, despite the turmoil in the global markets and weakness in many developed-world economies, Australia remains in the pink of health. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ report released Sept. 7 showed GDP in the second quarter grew by 1.2 percent sequentially.
That’s essentially a 4.8 percent annualized rate that beat both the year-over-year 1.4 percent growth rate and previous expectations for 1 percent quarter-over-quarter expansion.
Australia is the largest provider of basic resources needed to run the economies of China, India and Japan. The latter continues to suffer from the aftershocks of this year’s combination earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people.
But it’s still sucking down large amounts of Australian energy, particularly as so much of its nuclear power fleet has been taken down. Meanwhile, trade with the Middle Kingdom remains robust and commerce with fellow English-speaking democracy and Commonwealth country India is only beginning to pick up steam.
The value of Australia’s resources and energy exports reached a record in 2010-11 because of higher commodity prices driven by Asian demand. According to the Bureau of Resources & Energy Economics, exports of coal, iron ore, gold, natural gas and other commodities grew 27 percent year over year to AUD175 billion, 9 percent above the previous record, AUD160 billion, set in 2008-09. The mining sector now accounts for some 59 per cent of the country’s total goods and services exports.
Mighty yields, superior long-term growth prospects and a high degree of near-term safety–even if the global economy does slump as so many expect–sum up Australia’s edge for investor’s today.
Australia is a second-to-none destination for North American investors looking to build wealth over the long term. And none of that is going to change anytime soon.
In Focus
Each month we’ll zero in on an investment theme specific to Australia and identify companies within the story well-suited to sustain and grow dividends over time.
This month we discuss mining and energy services and infrastructure in Australia. Asian demand for energy is driving an investment boom in Western Australia and other key regions. China’s appetites for iron ore and coal are well known. But in the aftermath of the tragic earthquake/tsunami that caused meltdown at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant Japan is hot after new sources of energy–and that means its eyes are turning to Australia, too, and its copious reserves of offshore and onshore natural gas.
There are many ways to profit from Asian demand from Australia. Here are six ways to start.
Sector Spotlight
In every issue of Australian Edge we’ll provide two in-depth studies of a particular company in a particular sector or industry that has the stuff of a solid, long-term wealth-builder. In this preview issue we Spotlight Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANA, OTC: ANEWF), which we cover in the Financials section of How They Rate, and thermal coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC, OTC: NHPEF).
ANZ, as it’s widely known, is one of the pillars of Australia’s solid domestic banking system. With solid growth prospects in similarly resource-rich New Zealand and solid deposit funding of its expanding loan portfolio ANZ and its 7 percent yield is a great way to tap into the Australia story.
New Hope is basically a single-product outfit, but what a product it is: Thermal coal prices are back on the climb, as buying interest, particularly from China, has begun to pick up again.
An overhang of excess coal in Newcastle in the third quarter is starting to disappear, as exports of coal from Newcastle port, which handles most of the country’s thermal coal exports, increased 18.4 percent during the first week of September.
China’s overall coal imports are expected to pull back from a record level in 2010, despite strong domestic demand, as growth in local production and transportation capacity helps meet overall demand. But in general the potential for a shift from nuclear–inspired by events in Japan–ironically bodes well for thermal coal.
New Hope rebounded well from the global recession and is poised for solid growth whether King Coal resumes his reign or merely settles into a prominent role in satisfying global fuel demand.
Portfolio Update
This month in Portfolio Update we reveal six of the eight charter members of the Australian Edge Portfolio. Conservative Holding Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF) and Aggressive Holding New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC, OTC: NHPEF) are discussed in Sector Spotlights, ANZ here and New Hope here.
We’ll keep you up to date with the business performance of Australian Edge Portfolio companies each month in the Portfolio Update, as well as in Flash Alerts and AE Weekly, all of which are complementary with your subscription. That includes definitive advice on when to sell and why, as well as when downturns are buying opportunities.
Over the next several months, we’ll be adding new positions to both the Conservative and Aggressive Holdings until we reach a portfolio size of roughly 20 or so companies. These will be presented as Sector Spotlights. You can generally expect one new Conservative and one new Aggressive holding every month well into 2012. But we’ll be trying to time our purchases to get the best entry points, so that occasionally we may add two in the same category.
In Closing
The Comments section of How They Rate this month includes information on US American Depositary Receipts (ADR) that represent ownership in Australia-based companies. ADRs–discussed more fully in How to Buy Australian–allow US investors to bypass some of the costs associated with buying of foreign-listed shares.
In the meantime, thank you for subscribing to Australian Edge. We hope you find the information we provide both informative and profitable. And we look forward to hearing feedback about how we can improve the service.
David Dittman and Roger S. ConradEditors, Australian Edge
Stock Talk
Giulio Leone
With markets in decline, would it not be a better idea to give a lower buy price target to shoot for rather than an upper buy target? Your other services buy limit targets have been close to stock price peaks recently. Many of the stocks with those limits are now selling at a discount of 10-50% .
Would a macro view superimposed on your fundamental work be better for those of us looking for lower stock prices in this possible bear market? Thanks.
David Dittman
Mr. Leone,
Thanks for writing. Our “buy under” (“buy <") prices are set to reflect a level at which the stock in question will build real wealth for us over both the long and short term, without regard to short-term, fear-driven fluctuations in the market. We certainly intend to provide analysis of the macro situation; although we are mindful of and concerned about the view from 30,000 feet, the emphasis of our work is on the ability of individual companies to sustain and grow dividends. Of course commerce does not take place in a vacuum, but we're concerned with larger economic issues to the extent they impact the ability of our stocks to pay dividends. At the end of the day we buy businesses.
Thanks,
David
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David Dittman
I’ll add that we’ll have more on the macro situation in today’s AE Weekly and in the Oct. 14 Australian Edge. — DD
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David Dittman
Mr. Leone,
In thinking again about your question regarding “buy under” prices, there are cases where our limit is based on an NYSE-listed or OTC-traded ADR that may represent more than one ASX-traded common share. An example is Alumina Ltd (ASX: AWC, NYSE: AWC). Our quote service draws the ASX price, then converts it to USD. Alumina’s posted price of 1.50 makes our “buy < 9" advice look silly; that advice, however, is based on the NYSE-listed ADR, which represents four ASX-listed common shares. The NYSE-listed ADR closed at USD6.44 per today.
Our ability to download the full range of data available on Australia-based, ASX-listed stocks is based on using the ASX symbol as the root of our communication system. This will sometimes result in price/advice inconsistencies such as you identified. We'll do our best to point out where these situations may arise and explain their causes.
Thanks again for writing,
David
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