The Cures of the Week

Central banks around the world–and some fiscal authorities, at least in one Middle Kingdom–are applying their balms, salves and elixirs, again, as it becomes ever clearer that there are in fact no panaceas for what ails the global economy.

Only time and effort can eliminate the overhang of private debt in the Western world, and we are further troubled by public debt burdens that limit the ability of government entities to apply countercyclical measures to offset this drag on aggregate demand.

In the US we are experiencing a secular credit contraction for the first time since the Great Depression. As must be painfully obvious by now by all who care to observe such phenomena two rounds of quantitative easing, “Operation Twist” and a commitment to keep its benchmark rate effectively at the zero bound haven’t helped the Fed lift the US out of its lumpy, jagged and ultimately unsatisfying growth trajectory that’s characterized the post-Great Recession economy.

It should be noted too that in his highly touted Aug. 31, 2012, Jackson Hole speech Ben Berrnanke didn’t make any promises about announcing QEIII following the Fed’s September meeting. Announcements of prior rounds of non-traditional monetary policy follow bad periods for the stock market, not a series of bad economic data.

Those expecting Helicopter Ben to infuse a little more this week should take note of the fact that US equity indexes are near four-year highs, not that the Labor Dept reported yet another month of underwhelming hiring data last Friday.

At least as many eyes are on events across the pond. Last week European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced plans to buy unlimited amounts of government bonds of countries struggling to manage their debts, including Spain and Italy.

Countries that want ECB assistance must first seek emergency aid from the bailout funds managed by the 17 countries that use the euro and submit their economic policies to the scrutiny of the International Monetary Fund. Spain and Italy had resisted such requirements, but this tenet will make the new plan more acceptable politically across the region.

Unveiling of the ECB plan–dubbed Outright Monetary Transactions, or OMT–drove yields on government bonds across Europe lower and stock markets higher. The short-term reaction is positive, but the reality is that Europe is hobbled by similar long-term problems that hamper US growth. Lower borrowing costs–the aim of the OMT–provide relief in the short term but don’t resolve problems of solvency and unsustainable debt.

Now attention has turned to the German Constitutional Court, which will rule on Wednesday on the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism, the eurozone’s permanent bailout fund aimed at stemming the sovereign debt crisis, and whether the fiscal pact on states’ budget limits are in keeping with German law.

The EUR500 billion ESM was due to become operational earlier this year, but a requirement that it be ratified by the parliaments of many eurozone member states has caused delays. The German parliament has ratified the bailout fund, but President Joachim Gauck hasn’t signed it into law. Injunctions filed in the German Constitutional Court suggest the ESM violates the country’s authority over its own budget.

The German court is unlikely to undo the ESM in its entirety. But it could well impose conditions that require German parliamentary review of future efforts to provide aid. A final decision won’t come until December. But the court’s ruling on the current injunctions will telegraph that decision and dictate whether the ESM can take effect in October, as is now planned.

As for events Down Under, on Sept. 4 the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its overnight cash rate steady at 3.5 percent, the highest benchmark interest rate among major developed economies. Governor Glenn Stevens noted in a statement announcing the decision that although domestic consumption was “quite firm” in the first half of the year, commodity prices have fallen “sharply” in recent months and China’s growth outlook is more uncertain.

Nevertheless, in Australia “growth has been running close to trend, led by very large increases in capital spending in the resources sector,” noted Mr. Stevens. “Labor market data have shown moderate employment growth, even with job shedding in some industries, and the rate of unemployment has thus far remained low.”

A quarter of Australia’s exports, or about 5 percent of gross domestic product, goes to China, and 60 percent of those shipments are iron ore. “Growth in China remained reasonably robust in the first half of this year, albeit well below the exceptional pace seen in recent years,” Mr. Stevens said in the Sept. 4 RBA statement. “Some recent indicators have been weaker, which has added to uncertainty about near-term growth.”

Looking up from an Australian economic perspective, perhaps the most important of recent policy developments of course comes from China. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Tuesday that his nation will meet its official growth target of 7.5 percent GDP growth in 2012.

At the same time, however, Mr. Wen acknowledged that the Chinese economy is in a perilous situation. “It is true that the Chinese economy is under notable downward pressure, but with our efforts to shift our economic model, better allocate resources and implement more reform and opening up, we have the ability to keep the economy in good shape,” Mr. Wen said in a speech at the World Economic Forum’s meeting in Tianjin, according to a statement released by WEF.

Mr. Wen, who is due to retire in a few months, also said that China’s growth may be slowing but that it is more stable. “We will give greater priority to stabilizing growth and maintaining the continuity and stability of our policies,” he said.

There’s no question that China is slowing. Industrial production growth in August decelerated to 8.9 percent year over year from 9.2 percent in July. Fixed-asset investment, a key source of GDP growth, slowed to 20.2 percent in August from 20.4 percent in July. Imports contracted by 2.6 percent compared with a 4.7 percent expansion in July. Exports grew 2.7 percent in August, helping the trade surplus hit USD26.7 billion.

The contraction in imports is significant in light of the 7.5 percent decline in imports for consumption, as it suggests weakening of domestic demand.

But total planned investment for new projects started in August rose 33 percent year over year, up from 25 percent in July. Total planned investment is forecast to grow more than 40 percent this year. Last week China’s National Development and Reform Commission announced new subway and highway projects on top of the power stations, wind farms and airports and water supply, sewage treatment, and waste incineration projects previously revealed.

These efforts combined are worth an estimated RMB1 trillion (USD158 billion), or approximately 2.1 percent of GDP. Local governments have also pledged about RMB11.6 trillion in development projects for completion over the next three to five years. That’s about USD1.83 trillion, or 23 percent of GDP.

The Peoples Bank of China will also do its part to support the Chinese economy.

New rounds of stimuli, no matter how significant, can’t obviate the fact that China must undertake structural reforms that reorient the economy toward domestic consumption. In Asia, as in the West, there are no panaceas.

In the short term, however, such efforts will help the Middle Kingdom maintain growth targets and the relative domestic tranquility necessary, in the eyes of the Communist Party of China, as it embarks on its once-a-decade power transition later this year.

And these efforts certainly bode well for Australia.

The Roundup

Here’s a final batch of earnings summaries for the current reporting period.

Conservative Holdings

Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF) posted a company record net profit after tax of AUD74.2 million for the year ended Jun. 30, 2012, a 26 percent increase over fiscal 2011. Basic earnings per share grew by 9.7 percent to AUD0.6173. It’s the eighth consecutive year Cardno has posted a record profit and earnings per share growth since it listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in 2004.

Cardno’s board declared a final dividend of AUD0.18 per share, to be paid Oct. 12, 2012, to shareholders of record as of Sept. 14, 2012. Last year’s final dividend was AUD0.166523; combined with the AUD0.18 interim dividend Cardno will pay AUD0.36 in respect of fiscal 2012, up 5.9 percent from fiscal 2011.

Revenue climbed 16 percent to AUD965.8 million, while earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were up 28 percent to AUD128.7 million. Operating cash flow was AUD72.6 million. Cash on hand as of Jun. 30 was AUD107.9 million, up from AUD84 million a year ago. Net debt is relatively low at AUD198.84 million, with just AUD44 million coming due before the end of 2013.

The engineering services firm continues to trade on its experience in traditional infrastructure work, including highways, water treatment plants and mine-site expansion, and it’s successfully added to its competencies, including high-profile environmental disaster response such as BP Plc’s (London: BP, NYSE: BP) 2010 oil-platform explosion in the Gulf of Mexico.

Cardno is also building a new niche in the delivery of “social” infrastructure to developing nations, from running elections in Papua New Guinea to delivering education in Indonesia to creating health registries in Armenia.

Cardno worked on major projects including Rio Tinto Ltd’s (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO) electrical and controls system upgrade in the Pilbara, a prolific mining region in Western Australia, the Barangaroo redevelopment project in Sydney, the Gold Coast Light Rail project in Queensland, Atlanta Airport and significant environmental impact studies (EIS) work  for the US Dept of Defense.

Managing Directord Andrew Buckley, in a statement announcing results, noted, “The outlook for Cardno remains positive across our business especially in the mining, energy and oil and gas sectors, where Cardno continues to grow a stronger presence.” He added that the company maintains a healthy pipeline of acquisition opportunities.

Work in hand as of Jun. 30 was AUD671 million. In a recent presentation prepared for investors Cardno noted that “global market conditions are variable and improving slower than expected” but highlighted its view of an “improving” US economy and that “Australian economic growth” continues to be “bolstered by resources and energy.”

Cardno is a strong buy under USD8.05.

M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF) posted an 8 percent decline in revenue to AUD393.5 million from AUD427.9 million a year ago but also recorded a company record statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of AUD33 million, up 20 percent from fiscal 2011. Underlying NPAT was up 22 percent to AUD38.1 million.

Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) climbed 24 percent to AUD60.1 million. Management guided to fiscal 2013 EBITDA of between AUD108 million and AUD118 million, 79.7 percent to 96.3 percent higher than fiscal 2012. M2 expects fiscal 2013 net profit of AUD43 million to AUD48 million on revenue of AUD610 million to AUD650 million.

This growth will be driven by the recent acquisition of Primus Telecommunications. The transformative acquisition lifted M2’s net debt to AUD125.2 million at the end of June 2012 from AUD17.3 million a year ago. But net debt is expected to fall back to about AUD100 million by the end of 2013. Primus added significant scale and positions the business to maximize opportunities presented by the deployment of Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN).

M2 paid full-year dividends of AUD0.176732 for fiscal 2012, up 14.6 percent from a year ago. This amount equates to a payout ratio based on reported earnings per share of 70 percent. M2 Telecom is a buy under USD3.45.

Aggressive Holdings

Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY) produced 2.29 million ounces of gold during fiscal 2012, lower than initially planned but in line with a revised guidance from April, owing to slower production at its Lihir operation on the Niolan Island of Papua New Guinea, and heavy rainfall at its Cadia East mine, in New South Wales.

Newcrest reported a 23 percent increase in statutory profit after tax (NPAT) for the 12 months ended Jun. 30, 2012, to AUD1.1 billion on higher realized gold prices. Gold sales were 6 percent lower at 2.3 million ounces, as production was off by 10 percent.

Underlying profit increased by 2 percent to AUD1.08 billion, while operating cash flow was flat at AUD1.7 billion. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization rose 4 percent to AUD2.1 billion. Revenue was up 8 percent to AUD4.4 billion. Gold revenue was up by 10 percent to AUD3.7 billion, while copper revenue decreased by 4 percent to AUD613 million on a 9 percent decrease in the realized copper price. This was partially offset by an increase in sales volumes. Gold accounted for 85 percent of total sales revenue.

Newcrest declared a final dividend of AUD0.23 per share, payable Oct. 19, 2012, to shareholders of record as of Sept. 28, 2012. This is 15 percent higher than the final dividend for fiscal 2011. Full-year distributions totaled AUD0.35, up 16.7 percent from the regular full fiscal 2011 payout of AUD0.30.

Management has guided to fiscal 2013 output of 2.3 million to 2.5 million ounces.

Newcrest is targeting gold production growth of between 35 percent and 55 percent over the next five years and copper output growth of 20 percent to 30 percent. Newcrest is aiming to increase gold production by more than 1 million ounces, setting a 2017 target of between 3.1 million and 3.5 million ounces.

Cadia East would contribute between 30 percent and 40 percent of its five-year growth, Lihir 50 percent to 70 percent.

Newcrest is targeting copper production of between 100,000 and 110,000 metric tons by 2017, from a target of between 75,000 metric tons and 85,000 metric for 2013 and actual output of 76,000 metric tons in 2012.

In a statement announcing results Newcrest noted that fiscal 2013 would be a period of transition as it integrates two major growth projects into existing operations. Capital expenditure is forecast to fall from AUD2.5 billion to between AUD1.8 billion and AUD2 billion for the current fiscal year, reflecting the completion of the Cadia East project and the Lihir million-ounce plant upgrade in calendar fourth quarter. Management noted that CAPEX would decline to less than a third of its current rate after fiscal 2013.

Newcrest Mining is a buy under USD32.

Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY) reported a 6.2 percent decline in net profit after tax (NPAT) to USD107.5 million from USD114.5 million in the prior corresponding period. Revenue rose 7.4 percent to AUD385.78 million from USD359.35 million. Higher exploration costs were the main reason for the drop in profit, with production down slightly from the previous first half but sales revenue higher.

Total cash costs in the first half of 2012 were 39 percent higher than in the previous first half, at USD84.98 million.

That equated to USD21.04 per barrel of oil equivalent. Oil Search forecast costs for the full year to be in the range of USD23 and USD25 per barrel of oil equivalent. “The strong underlying oil field performance recorded in the first half of 2012 is expected to continue in the second half of the year, with continued good contributions from 2011 development wells and from recent successful workovers,” the company said in a statement.

Oil Search had recent drilling success with the P’nyang South well, which could support an expansion of the key USD15.7 billion PNG LNG project to three processing units from the currently planned two. Drilling of the Trapia-1 well is progressing, as is fresh drilling at the Hides prospect.

The company is also attempting to find a partner for other assets located in the Gulf of Papua. Oil Search said it has received “a range of competitive offers” after closing a data room for the assets and that talks with potential partners are at an advanced stage.

Oil Search will pay an interim dividend of USD0.02 per share, consistent with a year ago.

Oil Search recently suspended loading operations at its Kumul Marine Terminal in Papua New Guinea after a minor oil spill. Production for the 2012 full year is still expected to be within the previous guidance range of between 6.2 million and 6.7 million barrels of oil equivalent. The stock remains a buy under USD8 on the Australian Securities Exchange.

Worley Parsons Ltd (ASX: WOR, OTC: WYGPF, ADR: WYGPY) reported net profit after tax (NPAT) of AUD353 million, down 3 percent from AUD364 million in fiscal 2011. Underlying NPAT was AUD346 million, up 16 percent from AUD299 million. As management forecast, results improved from the first half to the second half of fiscal 2012; NPAT in the second half was up 28 percent over the first.

Revenue for the fiscal year reached a company record AUD7.36 billion, up 25 percent, while operating cash flow grew 49 percent to AUD438 million.

Worley now employs 40,800 people, up from 35,100 at the end of fiscal 2011. The company won 77 project and long-term contract awards during the year.

The company reported an increase in the volume of projects in the unconventional oil and gas market, particularly related to shale gas in the US, oil sands in Canada and coal seam gas in Australia. Management noted in a statement that current market uncertainty has resulted “in near-term caution” in the mining sector, with the Australian market having weakened toward the end of the fiscal year as commodity prices fell and worries over the outlook for global growth weighed on sentiment.

Worley is also focused on “globalizing” its minerals, metals and chemicals arm, with plans to expand in Latin America and Africa, largely through coal, copper and iron ore developments.

“Subject to the markets for our services remaining strong, we expect to achieve good growth in financial year 2013 compared to 2012 underlying earnings,” said Managing Director John Grill, who is due to be succeeded by the group’s finance managing director, Andrew Wood, in October.

Worley will pay a final dividend of AUD0.51 per share on Sept. 28, 2012, to shareholders of record as of Sept. 7. The full-year dividend of AUD0.91 is up 5.8 percent from fiscal 2011. WorleyParsons is a buy under USD30.

Following are links to our discussion and analysis of recently announced results for Portfolio Holdings as well as dates for announcements by companies that don’t report on the normal schedule.

Conservative Holdings

Aggressive Holdings

Stock Talk

Guest One

Edward Seiler

Please show the yield, potential for yield growth and the business of the company in the first sentence. It appears that some of these articles do not show the yield at all. Please have a “bottom feeder” award for the month. I love buying stocks within 10-20% of their 52 week low and you can put a picture of a flounder next to the good company that has fallen a great deal.

Guest One

Michael Silane

Buy recommendations are in what market? e.g. Telstra is a buy under 3.50. I own it at 21.32 in my Fidelity account. We need to know the recommendation in the markets that are available to us.

Thank you.

David Dittman

David Dittman

Hi Mr. Silane,

Our advice is in US dollar terms based on US dollar translations of Australian Securities Exchange prices. We quote the ASX-listed ordinary share of Telstra Corp Ltd, which trades Down Under with the symbol TLS. Your Telstra ownership is in the US over-the-counter (OTC) listed American Depositary Receipt (ADR), which represents five ordinary ASX listed shares and is represented by the symbol TLSYY. There is no fundamental difference between owning the ASX-listed shares and owning the ADR.

Best regards,

David

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