Go East for Dependable Income

The most expensive presidential election in US history is finally over, with a cumulative $6 billion spent by both parties in their competition for the White House. The election was supposed to be a clear referendum on the proper size of government; it was not.

Americans split their vote, re-electing President Obama but giving Republicans in the House of Representatives another large majority. The Democrats increased their controlling margin in the Senate by two seats, to 55-45, falling short of a filibuster-proof majority.

The upshot: Many investors are anxious and uncertain about how the newly elected—and rancorously divided—government in Washington will affect their tax liabilities and portfolios.

The nation’s leaders are struggling to reduce the deficit and reach a compromise on fiscal and tax policy. Single individuals making more than $200,000 a year and married couples making more than $250,000 a year are likely to see their tax brackets as well as capital gains and dividend taxes hiked.

A congressional battle is brewing over whose taxes will be increased and by how much. Specifically, investors are concerned about how their dividend-paying stocks will perform. Many seem worried that a mass exodus from this investment asset might occur, quickly decimating gains made over the past two years.

The executive teams at a number of American companies clearly share those fears, declaring the payment of special dividends before the end of this year to help investors avoid higher dividend taxes likely to kick in next year.

Nonetheless, I believe that concern over a crash in the value of dividend payers is largely overblown.

While the George W. Bush-era tax cuts and the more favorable treatment of dividends certainly added to the appeal of equity income strategies, the tax breaks didn’t drive a tidal wave of cash into them.

In reality, the near-zero percent interest rate strategy of the US Federal Reserve to help stimulate the economy has driven investors into dividend-paying equities. As soon as savings accounts and certificates of deposits began paying virtually non-existent interest rates and the 10-year Treasury coupon fell below 2 percent, corporate bonds and high-yield debt came into vogue almost immediately.

Since 2009, investment strategists have been arguing whether junk bonds have become overvalued, something which should be obvious to anyone who looks at historical coupon rates. Corporate borrowers who are rated below-investment grade—or aren’t even rated at all—can borrow money in the bond market at less than 5 percent. Many junk bond mutual funds are now yielding little more than 4 percent, a payout many investors don’t find commensurate with the risk.

Considering that the Fed isn’t likely to raise interest rates any time soon, I find it difficult to imagine a mass flight from dividend-paying stocks until some sort of replacement income is available. That’s particularly true since the Fed is still providing direct economic assistance in the form of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities a month, under its open-ended, third round of quantitative easing (QE3).

Even demographic trends support the argument that dividend stocks are here to stay.

Income streams are tough to come by and inadequate at best, but millions of baby boomers are turning age 65 every year. Numerous studies have shown that baby boomers are among the worst financially prepared generations for retirement in recent memory. Many of those who are or will soon be retired are dependent upon their investment incomes to fund their golden years.

At the same time, these aging boomers can’t afford to tuck all of their nest eggs into bonds and cash and hope to outlive their retirement funds. They’ll have little choice but to keep sizable allocations in dividend-paying equities to generate current income while still capturing capital gains.

The Income Haven of Global Markets


Despite all the arguments against a crash in dividend stocks, it is a real fear for many income investors. A fairly easy answer to the conundrum of where to turn can be found in the international markets.

As emerging market equities became the rising asset class of the 2000s, companies began looking for ways to separate themselves from the herd and attract foreign investors. Many struck upon the solution of dividends.

Not only do foreign investors find the income streams attractive, especially if their currency is weaker than the one in which the dividend is being paid, but dividends also provide another layer of accountability for management.

Regardless of whether a company is based in the US or in, say, Thailand, the surest way to crash a stock is to announce a dividend cut. As a rule, management teams at dividend-paying companies can ill afford to take reckless risks and tend to be excellent stewards of investors’ capital.

Thanks to that trend, you can now find dividend-paying equities in markets spread from Asia to Latin America. Itochu (Tokyo: 8001) and Television Broadcasts Limited (Hong Kong: 0511) are two of my favorites.

Itochu is a true Japanese conglomerate with businesses spanning from thermal coal mines in Colombia to shale oil and gas producers in the US. Last year alone, it invested JPY380 billion in the energy sector.

Itochu expanded its retail tire centers in the UK by purchasing a competitor, Kwik-Fit Group. It also made a substantial capital investment in a Chinese textiles group. Itochu is also a major manufacturer of industrial machinery and produces a wide range of specialty chemicals.

The company is divided into six operating divisions, two of which are particularly interesting. The company’s metals and minerals division is by far its largest, generating 47.3 percent of its JPY300.5 billion in revenue last year.

Under the banner of metals and minerals, Itochu operates iron ore mines in Brazil and western Australia, aluminum operations throughout Australia and a coal mine in Columbia. The division is currently working to develop uranium mines in Canada and Australia and platinum group metals and nickel mines in South Africa and Alaska.

Last year, the division saw overall profits decline by 1.6 percent due to the generally weak economy, but its net income attributable to Itochu shot up by 27.9 percent, thanks to improved volumes and prices in its iron ore operations.

The company’s next largest division is food. Although dwarfed by metals and mining, food-related operations generated JPY43.8 billion in revenue last year, or 14.6 percent of Itochu’s total. Producing sodas and liquor, frozen foods and a variety of grains, this division trades in vast quantities of raw materials and manages a huge food distribution network spread throughout Asia and particularly China.

The company is looking to further diversify its metals and minerals division by securing interests in rare earth element (REE) and non-ferrous metals mining. Both metal groups, particularly the REEs, have experienced growing demand despite the weak global economy, thanks to the use of these materials in a wide variety of popular consumer products. Because of global economic weakness, the company has picked up a number of properties and interests on the cheap, particularly in coal, and will realize a big pickup in earnings when the global economy eventually recovers.

The company’s food division is also an interesting play on growing global food demand. While Itochu has traditionally focused on serving the Japanese market, food demand there is expected to slow in the coming years due to the country’s aging demographic profile and low birth rate. The company is beginning to focus on the Chinese market where food demand is growing and it’s only a matter of time before it pushes into other nations.

Even as Itochu attracts future growth prospects, it’s an operationally sound company today. The company struggled to cope with natural disasters in Japan and the European debt crisis, but it managed to generate record net income of JPY300.5 billion in fiscal 2012, thanks to a well-conceived corporate reorganization, bargain hunting for attractive assets and cost cutting. That blew its forecast for net income of JPY240 billion out of the water.

Currently yielding 6 percent, the company also has a consistent dividend policy and a solid track record of distribution growth. Each year it pays out 20 percent of its net income up to JPY200 billion and 30 percent of any net income exceeding that amount. Last year’s total dividend exceeded 2011 by 240 percent and with a current payout ratio of just 23.1 percent, there’s plenty of room for future growth.

Television Broadcasts Limited is a leading Hong Kong television broadcaster and produces programming for both the local and international markets. It is one of the largest producers of Chinese language programming in the world and distributes its content to more than 40 countries, reaching nearly 300 million households.

Largely because of extremely strong ratings in Hong Kong, in its fiscal second quarter Television Broadcasts Limited was able to command 5.7 percent growth in advertising revenue, which hit HKD1.3 billion. It also saw a 9 percent increase in its program licensing and distribution earnings, driven by the popularity of its programs.

A much simpler company than Itochu, Television Broadcasts Limited’s attractiveness stems from recently received approvals from China’s central government to distribute its programming on the mainland through a joint venture with Shanghai Media Group and China Media Capital.

China is a surprisingly youthful country and dramas geared toward the 20- and 30-something audiences are extremely popular. But much of that type of programming in China is produced by state media companies and not particularly appealing, frequently panned as bland and unexciting by audiences.

Television Broadcasts Limited’s programs are likely to garner great success with this younger, uninspired audience in China, giving it additional leverage on licensing and distribution fees. That should fuel additional distribution growth from its current 4.1 percent yield.

Buy Itochu under JPY850 and Television Broadcasts Limited up to HKD65.

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