New Beginnings and Old Rules
Even as we leave behind a decade marked by a lesser and greater recession, asset bubbles and inflationary and deflationary threats, we’re being handed a warning that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Investors have continued to pour money into offshore investments; emerging markets were by far the top performers in 2009 and one of the best performing investment themes of the past ten years. Over the past decade the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has booked an annualized 8.2 percent gain, while the S&P 500 has given up 0.6 percent. Over the past 12 months emerging markets have returned 83.9 percent, while the S&P 500 is up a paltry 25.2 percent.
But global investors were caught off guard in early December when Dubai World, Dubai’s debt-laden sovereign wealth fund, sought a standstill agreement with its creditors. Analysts and investors had long assumed that the government would back Dubai World in the event of trouble, enabling the fund to build high-profile stakes in MGM Mirage, London banks and infrastructure projects around the world.
Accordingly, markets were shocked when the Emirate asserted that Dubai World’s debt was just that–Dubai World’s own.
The threat of the largest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001 sent ripples through emerging markets, triggering stock market declines around the world. Quickly differentiating between Dubai’s troubles and the rest of the world, investors regained confidence in markets outside of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and took advantage of the pullback to pick up high-quality names at an attractive discount.
Despite the quick rebound, the situation in the UAE underscores an important point. As growth remains sluggish in developed economies and money remains cheap, the quest for higher returns has drawn investment dollars into some of the riskiest corners of the world. And while analysts will continue to quibble about whether the huge inflows into emerging markets represent a bubble, some of the early warning signs are definitely there.
Although the situation in Dubai is likely the exception rather than the rule–the Emirate assumed a substantial amount of debt to make it both a tourist and financial destination–this debacle should remind investors that risks always exist. Emerging markets are extremely dynamic, and the economic situation can turn on a dime.
As we head into both a new decade and a new normal, don’t forget that the traditional rules of the road still apply. The time-tested buy and hold approach will continue to work, and broad diversification will still yield the best results. As always, selectivity is the key. And you can rest assured that our pages will continue to feature the top money managers’ top picks.
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