Since You Asked
I’m worried about the political unrest in the Middle East and the effect it will have on energy prices. Is there a way to play the crisis? –via email
It would be comforting to imagine that the repercussions of the unrest spreading across the Middle East will be isolated to that region alone. But these protests reverberate through global markets. That’s created additional volatility in US equity markets because of the rising cost of oil and worries that key US allies in the region may be toppled.
There are a number of ways to play the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
PowerShares MENA Frontier Countries (NSDQ: PMNA) has sold off by about 10 percent since the first riots started in Tunisia. As Tunisians took to the streets, investors pushed toward the exits in anticipation of a major crisis. As a result, a long position in the fund would be a bullish bet that the current unrest settles. This fund will benefit if the region maintains the status quo or makes a peaceful transition to governments favorable to the West.
Currently commanding a 2 percent premium to net asset value, the fund is a bit pricy. That’s largely a result of the fund’s large 15 percent exposure to Egypt, a country whose stock markets were closed for an extended period during its own riots. That market closure helped push the fund into premium territory; it was impossible to create or redeem creation shares in the fund. If you expect a positive resolution to this unrest–as we do–that 2 percent is worth the extra cost.
To play a continued rise in the cost of crude oil, United States Brent Oil (NYSE: BNO) is the best play at these price levels, though it would need to be closely watched. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has long been the key benchmark contract in crude oil and has historically traded at a premium to Brent oil. That relationship has broken down in recent months because of a temporary storage glut at the Cushing, Okla. delivery point. The unrest in MENA threatens supplies of Brent oil–which is primarily produced in the MENA region–to Europe. As a result, Brent has been trading at some of the highest premiums ever seen relative to WTI crude.
Once the crisis subsides, we expect to see the relationship between WTI and Brent revert to the mean. Until then, look for the price of Brent oil to move higher at a faster clip than WTI.
I’ve been told that Asia is driving global economic growth, but I’m uncomfortable investing in China because of its government. What other Asian countries should I turn to? – Dave Wilkens
Investors should recognize that any investment in Asia, to some extent, will be a bet on China’s continued economic growth. China is already Japan’s No. 1 export market and the mainland will increasingly play an integral role in the region’s economy.
That being said, we recognize that some investors choose to avoid direct investments in China, either for moral reasons or concerns about corporate transparency.
Singapore is a natural alternative to mainland China. A truly international city-state, Singapore boasts a stable democracy, rule of law and a robust economy. Singapore’s economy grew by 14.5 percent last year, reversing a 0.8 percent decline in 2009. Manufacturing of electronics and biomedical products helped drive a 29.7 percent surge in manufacturing activity in 2010.
\Like many other Asian countries, Singapore is experiencing strong inflationary pressures. Inflation reached 5.5 percent in January, but the government is combating rising prices with tax breaks and cash grants to small and medium sized businesses. Inflation notwithstanding, the government has forecast that Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 4 to 6 percent in 2011.
The real benefit to investing in Singapore is its stable of transparent, world-leading companies. One of our favorites is Keppel Corp (OTC: KPELY), a conglomerate involved in three primary business lines: offshore and marine, property and infrastructure. Its mighty offshore and marine division is a leading manufacturer of offshore oil rigs and provides exposure to rising global energy demand. Its Keppel Land division is the city-state’s largest office landlord, providing investors with access to Singapore’s thriving real estate market.
South Korea is another logical choice for investors seeking to play the ex-China Asian growth story. The country’s president Lee Myung-Bak, a former mayor of the capital city of Seoul, is widely seen as pragmatic and pro-business. Lee once served as chief executive of Hyundai Construction, one of the country’s most prominent corporations.
South Korea is also grappling with inflation, which came in at 4.1 percent in January. But there are preliminary signs that inflation is beginning to moderate, and by and large we believe Asian inflation will subside by midyear.
Strong economic growth has also helped bring the country’s financial house in order; preliminary data shows that the country’s fiscal deficit–widely seen as an indicator of the country’s financial health–amounted to less than 2 percent of GDP in 2010, beating the government target of 2.7 percent. The South Korean market trades at about 9 times 2011 forward earnings, a reasonable valuation.
LG Display (NYSE: LPL) is the world’s No. 2 maker of thin-film transistor (TFT) liquid crystal display (LCD) panels behind another South Korean firm, Samsung Electronics. LG Display endured some hard knocks during the financial crisis. But as the global economy trudges forward, we expect to see an uptick in consumer spending on electronics.
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