Real Profits
US investors seeking exposure to emerging markets often look to the East, but there are plenty of opportunities in South America
With its beautiful landscapes, surreal Carnival and strong resource-based economy, Brazil is a country that’s alluring to tourists and investors alike. But although travelers continue to flow into the country, investment inflows have waned a bit.
Whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Average is roughly 1,000 points off its post-recovery high and the S&P 500 has shed more than 200 points, the Brazil’s Bovespa Index is still within spitting distance of its peak.
This outperformance has prompted both individual investors and money managers to wonder whether the market has become too rich—a valid question. Brazilian equities have benefited from considerable tailwinds over the past year: Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) announced significant oil discoveries; the country will host the 2016 Olympics; and low leverage insulated the nation’s banking industry from the worst of the financial crisis.
That being said, plenty of catalysts exist to keep the run alive.
For one, China’s continued economic growth should continue to fuel demand for Brazil’s natural resources. Close ties with the world’s most dynamic emerging market have pushed Brazil’s unemployment close to all-time lows and fueled substantial earnings growth. With a burgeoning middle class, domestic demand continues to expand.
And although Centro Banco do Brasil is in the midst of a tightening cycle, both consumer and corporate credit have continued to expand.
Investors may need to pick their spots a bit more carefully to lock in profits, but don’t expect the party to end anytime soon.
T. Rowe Price Latin America (PRLAX) has endured a bumpy ride since Jose Buck took the helm in December 2008, but despite our initial concerns about his lack of management experience, none of that volatility has been due to poor decisions on his part.
Having worked closely with his predecessor Gonzalo Pangaro for the better part of eight years, Buck has left the portfolio largely intact and continues to follow a moderate-growth strategy. Seeking out inexpensive blue chips that have the potential to grow earnings year-over-year, Buck steered the fund to a 114 percent gain in 2009. This year the portfolio is up about 0.5 percent, while the Bovespa Index is down 2.5 percent.
Lately Buck has built stakes in consumer-oriented names such as credit card service providers, clothing manufacturers and retailers to gain exposure to a growing middle class.
The fund boasts a peer-leading expense ratio of just 1.29 percent and an extremely low annual turnover of 21.2 percent—an unusual combination for funds focused on Latin America.
T. Rowe Price Latin America owes its success to sectors that are the nuts and bolts of the region’s developing markets: financials, materials, energy and the consumer. Resource rich, Brazil and other Latin American economies have benefited from increasing demand for agricultural products, oil and natural gas and minerals.
Brazilian equities account for 68 percent of the fund’s investable assets, but solid performance in Colombia, Chile and Peru also boosted returns.
Exchange-traded funds (ETF) offer targeted exposure to specific segments of the Brazilian market.
Global X Brazil Mid Cap (NYSE: BRAZ) is attractive because its holdings should benefit most from domestic economic growth, and unlike peers such as iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE: EWZ), the fund doesn’t have an overweight position in materials. Although mineral wealth continues to drive growth, the sector can be extremely choppy, depending on the economic news of the day. Investors seeking exposure to the Brazil’s growth story needn’t endure this volatility, and almost any resource fund will include the major Brazilian materials outfits.
Global X Brazil Mid Cap focuses on sectors that will benefit from rising household incomes and soaring consumer spending: Utilities account for 20 percent of investable assets, consumer staples receive a 17 percent allocation and industrial, financial and consumer-discretionary names also figure prominently. This balanced mix results in a portfolio that better represents the Brazilian economy.
EG Shares Brazil Infrastructure Index (NYSE: BRXX) is another attractive option.
Over the past decade, only 2.1 percent of Brazil’s gross domestic product has been invested in infrastructure. Blackouts and other service disruptions have been a problem, and less than 20 percent of the country’s roads are paved.
These shortcomings pose a significant problem; Brazil will host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. To meet these demands, the government announced that it would expand the Programe de Aceleracao do Cresimento (PAC)—Program for Accelerated Growth—which was initially slated to invest more than $250 billion in critical infrastructure between 2008 and 2010. PAC 2 calls for a further $878 billion in infrastructure investments, with the host cities receiving over $59 billion.
Whereas investors seeking to profit from the US stimulus program had to be nimble and predict which firms would benefit the most, Brazil’s infrastructure initiative is a bit more focused.
EG Shares Brazil Infrastructure Index holds names such as toll-road operator Companhia de Concessoes Rodoviarias (Sao Paolo: CCR03), steel producer Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SA (Sao Paolo: CSNA3, NYSE: SID) and aircraft manufacturer Empresa Brasileira de Aeronautica (Sao Paolo: EMBR3, NYSE: ERJ), as well as a number of construction firms, raw materials producers and utilities. All portfolio holdings stand to win contracts or attract direct investment as Brazil builds out its infrastructure.
Despite the geographic distance, the tenets of successful investing remain the same. Identify macro trends that offer long-term growth opportunities and take advantage of short-term sell-offs to secure attractive entry points. Mutual funds and ETFs simplify this process considerably, and the three funds discussed in this article provide exposure to structural trends in the Brazilian economy.
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