New Year, Similar Tune
The lingering effects of the global financial crisis continued to roil financial markets in 2010. As the new year approaches, investors remain concerned about whether Europe can resolve its sovereign debt crises. Ireland accepted a bailout package from the EU and the International Monetary Fund to prop up its banking system, alleviating some concerns. But Spain and Portugal also will likely require a bailout. Slow growth in the developed world is another concern, with US gross domestic product expected to grow just 2.5 percent.
This will be a bullish year for many commodities, though coal and oil should lead the pack.
US energy demand hasn’t recovered to pre-recession levels but is growing. Meanwhile, demand from developing nation continues to rise at a rapid clip. In 2010 China eclipsed the US as the world’s top energy consumer, and the nation shows no sign of resting on its laurels; analysts expect China’s oil consumption to grow by 4.8 percent and its net coal imports to increase by about 100 million tons.
This uptick in demand occurs against a backdrop of tightening supplies. Saudi Arabia halted oil exploration activities in mid-2010. Many major energy companies reduced exploration and production budgets during the recession. Moreover, most new finds are located in deepwater fields and other expensive-to-produce areas that will take some time to bring onstream.
Expect tightening supply and recovering demand to push energy prices higher in 2011.
Precious metals were big winners last year and should do well in 2011, albeit to a lesser extent. Last year central banks stepped up purchases of gold, as governments sought to reduce exposure to the US dollar. Ongoing sovereign debt concerns in Europe and the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program also lured investors into the gold market. These trends should hold in 2011; any weakness in gold prices will likely draw more buyers. But with investors slowly regaining confidence in markets, the parabolic rise in gold prices should moderate.
This should be a bullish year for equities, particularly in foreign markets. Most Asian economies are humming along and the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are steadily developing domestic consumer-driven markets. A new influx of wealth from rising commodity prices should continue to spur consumption in resource-centric economies, making the BRIC markets extremely attractive. These trends will redound to the benefit of US and European multinationals that sell their products to these markets.
My outlook for the bond market isn’t quite as sanguine. Hyperinflation isn’t lurking behind the next bend, but rising input prices could prompt central banks to raise interest rates–likely by midyear. This would prompt investors to favor equities and commodities, to the detriment of bond prices.
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