Drink and Be Merry
Sin stocks are verboten to many investors. Good for them. But these investments are often more attractively valued than other dividend-paying equities. Although sin stocks tend to be cyclical, emerging-market names have displayed impressive defensive qualities due to strong growth in their domestic markets.
A handful of North American breweries have performed well over the past half-decade. But these lucky few have been the exception to the rule. Most of these names have struggled as consumers curtailed discretionary spending. Not so in the developing world, where rising incomes have fueled robust demand.
Companhia de Bebidas das Americas (NYSE: ABV), or AmBev as it’s known in North America, is a subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD). It’s the largest brewer in Latin America and the world’s fifth largest brewery. AmBev is also the largest bottler of PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) products outside of the US.
AmBev commands more than 95 percent of the beer markets in Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay. It holds a 76 percent share of this market in Argentina, almost 70 percent in Brazil and more than 40 percent in Canada.
In addition to its dominance in these markets, AmBev boasts a number of attributes that warrant the attention of US-based income investors.
Rising incomes mean that premium beer sales have far more room to grow in Latin America than in the developed world, and Am-Bev’s dominance in the total beer market augurs well for its ability to capture a large share of this growth. Premium beers offer higher margins than less expensive fare and account for only 5 percent of volume sales in Brazil—up from just 2 percent three years ago. Premium beers represent an even smaller percentage of total sales in other South American countries.
By contrast, premium beers account for about 15 percent of sales in the US. Europeans are even more discerning when it comes to their favorite drafts; in some countries across the pond, premium beers account for almost half of total sales.
US beer sales have been lackluster over the past few years as cash-strapped consumers have cut back on discretionary purchases. Although sales in Latin America haven’t exactly been on a tear, a 2 percent boost in sales last year proves there’s still fizz in the bottle. Most important, AmBev has been able to mitigate rising commodity prices by passing on costs to customers.
AmBev’s sports a net margin of almost 30 percent, far higher than that of its parent company, which runs at about 11 percent, close to the industry average. AmBev’s fat margins are a sign of a lean company: AmBev has squeezed almost every efficiency from its production and distribution systems.
Stronger growth and higher margins allow AmBev to pay a 3.8 percent yield, compared to a 2 percent payout from parent company Anheuser-Busch InBev. With a payout ratio of just 45 percent and average yearly revenue growth of 9 percent, there’s plenty of room for that payout to grow.
Emerging-market plays are generally perceived to incur higher risk than investments in the developed world. But when it comes to investing in sin stocks, the emerging world can be the safer bet for growth.
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