Keep Your Head
Wall Street analyst’s stature in the industry is largely determined by how much airtime they get on the major cable networks. Outlandish predictions—particularly bearish forecasts—garner significant attention, and many analysts understandably predict doom and gloom while under the camera’s glare. Although this can lead to volatility in the markets, objective investors can find opportunities amid the noise.
After correctly predicting the 2008 banking crisis, analyst Meredith Whitney commands respect on the Street. In a December appearance on the television show 60 Minutes, she predicted 50 to 100 municipal defaults with a price tag of hundreds of billions of dollars. The municipal markets went into a tailspin the next day.
Her prognostications made for compelling TV. They were also misguided.
Although 14 municipalities have defaulted on their debt this y ear, to the tune of some $600 million, that’s a far cry from the doomsday scenario Whitney predicted. Municipalities across the US still face serious fiscal challenges. But tax receipts in most parts of the country are rising, while budgets have been trimmed to more manageable levels.
Marshall Intermediate Tax-Free (MITFX) is one of the best municipal bond funds available and has been relatively unscathed by the market’s volatility.
Co-managers John Boritzke (who’s been at the helm since the fund’s 1994 inception) and Duane McAllister, follow a low-risk approach to running their portfolio. That conservative bent has paid off. The fund remained in the black in 2008, returning 0.7 percent while the majority of its peers lost money as the credit crisis intensified.
Avoiding riskier issues such as airlines and tobacco bonds, Boritzke and McAllister maintained a high-quality portfolio—they bumped up average credit quality to AA in 2007 and 2008.
Management prefers revenue bonds over general obligation bonds. Though the credit risk associated with general obligation bonds is often overblown, they are tied to the overall tax revenues of the issuer. This makes them more sensitive to swings in the economy than revenue bonds.
While revenues generated by facilities such as airports and utilities can decline in response to a sagging economy, the presence of a recurring income stream makes revenue bonds more secure. Currently the majority of the fund’s assets are held in revenue bonds.
The managers also take pains to limit volatility. They aren’t afraid to hold a large cash stake, generally between 5 to 10 percent of assets. The fund has also nearly doubled the portfolio to 578 holdings to dampen the effect of issuer-specific credit worries. The fund also eschews derivatives, financial instruments that can lead to big swings in performance.
Such a conservative bent has its downside. The fund tends to underperform in bull markets, when quality is less of a concern; this makes the fund suitable for long-term investors.
The payoff is worth the wait. Marshall Intermediate Tax Free has outperformed about 90 percent of its peers over a 10-year cycle and ranks in the top 5 percent of its category on a three- and five-year basis.
An expense ratio of 0.55 and a tax-advantaged yield of 3.4 percent will ensure that you’ll be well paid in the meantime.
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