A Basket of Commodities
Commodity investors suffered volatility alongside equity investors in 2011. Copper and corn prices hit all-time highs early in the year only to plunge during the second half; crude oil and wheat initially skyrocketed only to fall toward the end of the year.
Fears of another global recession drove much of this volatility, as investors anxiously monitored the European sovereign-debt crisis and slowing growth in China. But Europe has largely managed to contain its crisis and has a tentative plan to address its debt burden. China has started to loosen its monetary policy and reinvigorate economic growth.
We expect anemic gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Europe this year and a mild recession in the region is possible. However, China’s shift in monetary policy should produce GDP growth in excess of 8 percent in 2012. In addition to China, we ex-pect brisk growth from emerging markets as a whole.
As such, demand from emerging markets should push all manner of commodities higher—particularly those that are already in tight supply, such as corn, copper and crude oil. And with most commodities well off their 2011 highs, there’s plenty of room to run.
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE: DBC) is the largest and most liquid broad-basket commodity exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the market, with almost $5.5 billion in assets. The ETF owes much of its popularity to its first-mover advantage; the fund was one of the first commodity ETFs to hit the market when it launched in 2006.
Additionally, the ETF uses what it terms an “optimum yield” strategy to minimize the effects of “contango” on its returns. Contango occurs when longer-dated futures contracts command prices above current spot prices. When contango is present in the futures markets, commodity ETFs that use futures contracts can lose money when they roll short-dated contracts into longer-dated contracts. But this ETF’s optimum yield strategy allows it to purchase contracts as far out as 13 months in order to achieve the best prices on its rolls. As a result, it has less of a performance hurdle to overcome than many of its peers.
The ETF maintains a heavy allocation to energy, with more than 50 percent of assets devoted to energy commodities such as heating oil, crude oil and gasoline. But the ETF only has a 4.8 percent allocation to natural gas. It’s a favorable mix for investors. Abundant supplies will depress natural gas prices, while oil demand is expected to spike.
The ETF allocates 20 percent of its portfolio to agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat, soybeans and sugar. Although agricultural commodities may not perform as strongly as energy commodities such as oil, they should experience continued growth in demand as the global population increases and living standards improve.
With an annual expense ratio of 0.85 percent, PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund is a cost-effective vehicle for gaining exposure to an improving commodities market.
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