Climb the Credit Ladder
The broad market, as measured by SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY), has jumped almost 19 percent over the trailing six months. Meanwhile, high- yield junk bonds, as measured by iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (NYSE: HYG), have risen by almost 5 percent. By contrast, iShares Barclays Intermediate Credit Bond (NYSE: CIU), which tracks investment- grade debt of intermediate duration, has gained a scant 2 percent over the same period.
That performance differential derives from the fact that the Federal Reserve has been very effective at keeping bond yields at rock-bottom levels. The improvement in investor confidence has been another major driving force behind the outperformance of risk assets.
Unfortunately, we expect a correction in the near term as the Fed begins withdrawing the stimulus it’s provided over the past few years and gas prices continue rising. Additionally, the European sovereign-debt crisis could reassert itself. The confluence of these events could compel investors to abandon equities and junk bonds in favor of safer assets.
Once a market correction is underway, investors’ first instinct will be to flee to the relative safety of Treasuries. However, even after the pullback in Treasuries over the past two months, yields remain near historic lows and that means potential upside is limited.
Instead, investors would be better served by building a position in investment-grade corporate bonds.
While consumer confidence will be the core issue during a correction, the odds are remote that the US economy will suffer another recession any time soon. Although US economic growth is sluggish, the economy is growing nonetheless. The employment situation and consumer spending have made tremendous improvements over the past three years and the US economy is largely shielded from the effects of a European recession.
And with their rock-solid balance sheets and improving earnings, the average corporation is in sound financial condition, so US corporate bonds are unlikely to experience a wave of defaults. Indeed, they should provide solid returns over the coming years if purchased at attractive levels.
While nearly two-thirds of the bonds held by iShares Barclays Intermediate Credit Bond are at least A-rated or better, the fund’s average credit rating is BBB because of its substantial 31.6 percent allocation to bond holdings at the lower rungs of the investment-grade credit ladder. While that does add a minimal element of credit risk, it also creates an attractive 3.6 percent yield at current prices. And if shares are purchased at around $100—a level that should be reached during a correction—the yield will become even more attractive, while subjecting investors to much less volatility than junk bonds or equities.
The fund’s portfolio has an average duration of 4.3 years, so it does have some exposure to interest rate risk. With an annual expense ratio of just 0.2 percent, the fund makes an excellent long-term holding.
So rather than heading for the hills when the market dips, investors should use iShares Barclays Intermediate Credit Bond to boost their portfolio’s yield while adding minimal additional risk.
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