Whatever Happened to …?

Each month, we conclude our coverage of at least two companies listed in our “Now vs. Then” portfolio table on the preceding page. But just because we no longer track a particular stock doesn’t mean that our opinion has changed or that our investment thesis has come undone. In fact, the majority of these companies continue to produce gains, albeit with the exception of the occasional market laggard.

Still Smokin’

When cable channel A MC faces criticism each time a character on its popular television show “Mad Men” lights a cigarette, that underscores the fact that it’s tough to be a smoker in America these days. Las Vegas is about the only locality left in the US where smokers can reliably find a spot to enjoy t heir v ice indoors.

Anti-smoking education has been extremely effective in the US. By 2008, for example, the percentage of American smokers fell below 20 percent for the first time since the 1960s. And more smokers quit w it h each passing year, as evidenced by data from the US Surgeon General’s Office showing that the number of smokers is now declining by about 3 percent annually.

Nevertheless, if you still hold shares of Altria Group (N YSE: MO) since we first recommended the stock in October 2010, you’ve enjoyed gains of almost 47 percent and have handily outperformed bot h the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Altria owns the iconic Marlboro brand of cigarettes, as well as Black & Mild cigars along with several brands of discount cigarettes and smokeless tobacco. Because of its strong brand portfolio, Altria currently holds a nearly 50 percent share of the US tobacco market, which gives it substantial pricing power.

Although the number of smokers may be in a long-term downtrend, Altria has successfully pushed through a number of price increases in order to maintain earnings.

In addition to its tobacco business, Altria owns a 27 percent stake in SABMiller (London: SAB, OTC: SBMRY) as well as Ste. Michelle Wine Estates, both of which provide some diversification to the company’s revenue stream.

Even after Altria’s international assets were spun off as Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM), Altria still manages to pay an attractive dividend, as its board of directors pays out at least 80 percent of earnings. It is also currently engaged in a $1 billion share buyback program, which has added considerable value for investors.

So while tobacco’s popularity may be on the wane in the US, Altria’s 5 percent dividend yield means that the stock remains popular among income investors.

Fashion Backward

By contrast, Guess? (NYSE: GES) was one pick that did not perform as we’d anticipated.

We first profiled the company in our June 2010 issue, and when we w rapped up our coverage of the stock a year later, the shares were down by 4.3 percent.

Thereafter, the company has had a tough run and its shares are now off by 34.9 percent since our initial recommendation. The company missed last year’s earnings estimates by a wide margin and issued weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for its current fiscal year.

Management expects slower sales grow t h in Europe, a key market that accounts for more than a third of the company’s overall revenue. And same-store sales in the US have declined for the past five quarters.

While we were initially quite positive on the company due to its steadily growing earnings, most of that growth has been driven by rapid location expansion, rather than growing same-store sales. When its expansion finally slows, earnings will stagnate. That’s not a recipe for long-term success.

However, there are some bright spots for the company. It has licensed its brand for a variety of fashion accessory items, and those deals are making a positive contribution toward margins. And it’s also successfully expanding into Asia. Still, that hasn’t been enough to offset generally declining sales growth.

While Guess? could once again rise to the pinnacle of mid-price fashion, its significant exposure to Europe makes it a speculative bet until the Continent’s economic turmoil subsides. As such, all but the most aggressive investors should stand aside.

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