Betting on the Next Buffett
Although Warren Buffett’s investing prowess is legendary, even he acknowledges that the heady gains of Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE: BRK-B) first few decades will be difficult to replicate in the future. That’s because Berkshire now operates at such a large scale that it literally has to buy whole companies in order to meaningfully move the needle in book value per share, the metric by which Buffett measures his success as an investor and allocator of capital. But as evidenced by the $38.1 billion in cash idling on Berkshire’s balance sheet, there aren’t too many opportunities to deploy that capital in accordance with Buffett’s strict investment criteria.
While the famed holding company’s book value per share has grown 19.8 percent annualized over the past 47 years, the pace of that growth has slowed in recent years. From 1976 through 2000, only one of the rolling five-year periods by calendar year produced an annualized gain in book value below 20 percent. Since then, there have been six such periods in which those gains were in the mid- to high-single digits.
Even so, Berkshire’s growth in book value per share has still managed to beat the S&P 500’s dividend-reinvested return in each of these periods since Buffett took the helm in 1965. In Berkshire’s most recent annual report, however, Buffett conceded that should the S&P 500 produce a five-year winning streak, it will “almost certainly snap” this impressive record.
Nevertheless, these are relatively enviable problems with which most investors would love to grapple. But while individual investors will likely continue to be well served by holding Berkshire in their portfolios, particularly during downturns, there are other holding companies that have similarly successful track records. And they still operate at a scale where their acquisitions can actually have an observable impact on their bottom line.
Although Danaher Corp (NYSE: DHR) traces its lineage back to a real estate investment trust, it began to assume its present form as a diversified manufacturing conglomerate once the era of leveraged finance commenced in the 1980s. During that period, Steven and Mitchell Rales built Danaher by shrewdly using junk bonds to help finance their acquisitions.
But unlike Buffett, who tends to let the management teams of his acquisitions operate independently, Danaher specializes in wringing operational efficiencies from its companies through the application of its “Danaher Business System” (DBS). DBS originally began as a method to improve manufacturing processes, but it has since blossomed into an overarching management philosophy that integrates the four facets of Danaher’s customer-oriented approach of quality, delivery, cost and innovation.
Over the last decade, Danaher has reoriented its manufacturing business toward the science and technology industries. It now derives nearly 90 percent of its revenue from these market-leading businesses, including life sciences and diagnostics, electronic measurement instruments, and industrial technologies. In 2011, Danaher further enhanced its portfolio of companies with its $6.8 billion acquisition of biomedical instruments manufacturer Beckman Coulter.
Danaher produces tremendous amounts of free cash flow, and in 2011, it enjoyed its 20th consecutive year in which free cash flow exceeded net income. Additionally, Danaher’s net income has grown 22 percent annualized over the trailing 10-year period.
Danaher has just over $1 billion in cash on its balance sheet and $4.8 billion in long-term debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71.
Like Buffett, the management team at Leucadia National Corp (NYSE: LUK) is principally focused on increasing book value per share, which has grown 18.5 percent annually since 1979.
During the downturn, Leucadia teamed with Berkshire to acquire the assets of GMAC’s former commercial mortgage unit to create one of the largest non-bank owned commercial mortgage origination and servicing companies in the US. Beyond that, Leucadia also owns a diversified portfolio of businesses, including plastics, lumber, wineries and energy. In late December, Leucadia acquired a 79 percent stake in National Beef Packing for $867.9 million.
Leucadia has been paring debt from its balance sheet and now has $1.4 billion in long-term debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.40. Although the company suffered a $2.5 billion loss in 2008 at the height of the downturn, its revenue has still grown 15.4 percent annually over the past decade.
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