The Toll-Takers of Trade
Most investors would likely prefer to buy shares of a stock while it has upward momentum. Although there are numerous successful momentum-based investment strategies, they all essentially rely on an endless supply of “greater fools” who are willing to chase overvalued investments ever higher.
By contrast, a beaten-down stock requires extraordinary patience. A company’s shares may trade at a level that suggests rare value, but it could always drop even further before the macro environment improves or the market recognizes a change in the company’s underlying fundamentals.
At the moment, global economic uncertainty reigns supreme, as most investors expect a protracted slowdown. Depending on an investor’s fortitude, anxious times can also provide the best entry points.
Among the numerous industries suffering amid anemic global trade, non-asset third party logistics (3PL) providers offer an intriguing opportunity. During boom times, some of these firms trade at relatively high valuations. But as international freight volumes declined in recent quarters, the valuations of 3PL providers have become less frothy.
These firms are among our favorite toll-takers that facilitate global trade. For the most part, 3PL companies don’t bother with maintaining a capital-intensive fleet of transportation assets. Instead, they purchase cargo space in bulk from carriers and use their vast network to coordinate the shipping of goods around the world via multiple modes of transportation. Some analysts liken them to the travel agents of global commerce.
Expeditors International of Washington (NSDQ: EXPD) is among the top names in the 3PL space, providing firms with air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, as well as other key supply chain logistics via a worldwide network of nearly 250 locations on six continents. However, the firm missed earnings estimates by an average of 7.9 percent over the past two quarters, and shares of its stock have dropped toward the lower end of its 52-week trading range, from a normally rich price-to-earnings ratio in the low 30s to a P/E of 22.8.
Airfreight tonnages, which account for 46.8 percent of revenue, fell 9 percent during the first quarter from a year ago, despite a 5 percent increase in the number of shipments handled. That led to a 3 percent drop in top-line revenue and a 2 percent decline in net income.
However, the company has a substantial $1.4 billion in cash on its balance sheet and no long-term debt, so it has the financial strength to endure until demand improves. The firm tends to grow organically rather than through acquisitions, and management is considering deploying some of that excess cash to support shares through a repurchase program.
Expeditors has grown its revenue 14 percent annually over the past 10 years and typically earns returns on invested capital in the low 20s. Management defies the short-term demands of the Wall Street earnings mill by taking a long-term perspective toward their business. That means management will maintain its network during lean times by not paring the firm’s employee headcount to goose earnings. Patient investors should carefully build a position in anticipation of an eventual rebound in global trade.
Australian firm Toll Holdings (Australia: AU) is one of the leading integrated logistics companies in the Asia-Pacific region, but it’s currently suffering from a weak demand environment from serving more cyclical industries, such as retail and manufacturing. On the domestic front, the firm is engaged in a pricing war with Linfox, which has eroded margins. In the wider region, Toll is in the first phase of an aggressive expansion of its global forwarding business, which currently accounts for roughly 20 percent of revenue.
Toll’s shares recently took a hit after the company acknowledged write-downs of at least AUD202 million for its Japanese business Footwork Express and its commercial property portfolio. The Japanese firm had been acquired in 2009 under Toll’s previous CEO, who had pursued a policy of bolt-on acquisitions to increase the company’s scale.
Despite such straits, Toll still has a solid balance sheet, with AUD462.7 million in cash and just AUD1.7 billion in debt. Over the trailing 10-year period, the company has grown revenue 17.6 percent annually. Its shares trade toward the lower end of its 52-week trading range, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.4 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.1.
Toll’s shares currently yield 5.7 percent, which should reward shareholders while they await a turnaround in the global economy.
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