The Fed Underwhelms Again

After its July/August meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued the typical boilerplate statement we’ve grown accustomed to during the past two years. But this time around, there were two notable comments.

First, the Committee acknowledged that “economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year.”

In an attempt to bolster growth, the Fed reaffirmed that it will maintain its current interest rate policy and continue Operation Twist—the central bank’s effort to force long-term rates lower—through the end of 2012. No surprises there.

Then toward the end of the statement, the Committee stated it will: “closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.”

In Fedspeak, this essentially means that if the unemployment rate doesn’t begin falling soon, the Fed will implement another round of quantitative easing (QE).

The following day, the president of the European Central Bank urged European leaders to begin their own round of quantitative easing by purchasing regional government bonds under the auspices of its own bailout fund.

For the time being, it looks as though monetary authorities are waiting to see if simply talking about additional stimulus measures will be enough of a confidence booster to get the global economy growing again. If not, it appears increasingly likely that we will see a coordinated effort by global central banks to inject additional stimulus sometime in the next several months.

But one can’t help but wonder: If two rounds of QE haven’t done the trick, will the third time work like a charm? I doubt it.

While the introduction of QE3 would likely provide a quick boost to stock and commodity prices, it simply won’t correct the underlying crisis of confidence that is dragging on the economy. And as the markets have come to expect additional easing whenever economic fundamentals lag, I suspect QE3 will likely prove less effective than its previous iterations.

At some point, global monetary authorities will have to overcome their band-aid mentality and address the mountains of sovereign debt that have buried us under this crisis. The digging-out process will be painful. As Jerry Jordan points out in this month’s Insider’s Edge (pages 4 and 5), Congress will have to increase taxes and cut spending; that’s the only way out of this mess.

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