Making Green from Red or Blue
As investors, we tend to be well informed about our nation’s political affairs and to have clear-cut ideas about US economic policy. So no doubt, at least half of you will be disappointed in the outcome of the presidential election, and might even be contemplating getting out of the market altogether. Don’t do it.
There was similar talk four years ago, when after the 2008 election investors told me they planned to liquidate their stocks in favor of cash. In the middle of the financial crisis, they didn’t think the economy could weather a liberal Democratic presidency. I hope that was just post-election ranting; those who actually stayed out of the market have missed a nearly 70 percent gain in the S&P 500 since then.
Successful investing depends upon keeping our personal political views separate from our investment decisions, while understanding the political agendas of the president and Congress. Regardless of their party affiliation, our elected officials are in the business of creating winners and losers in the economy through regulation and taxation. As long as we understand their motives, and how they’re likely to act, we can still make money even if we don’t agree with prevailing policies.
Another thing to keep in mind: It likely won’t make much of a difference who’s in the White House, as circumstances will constrain their policymaking. In this month’s “Insider’s Edge,” Josh Strauss points out that inflation is just about the last arrow left in the Federal Reserve’s quiver, so easy money is probably here to stay. The ideological entrenchment on both sides of the aisle will also likely forestall success in addressing the hard issues, such as meaningful debt reduction and the reforms necessary to make our social safety net more sustainable.
Unfortunately, Strauss’s view is largely the consensus. Over the past several months, the election has inevitably come up in every conversation I’ve had with portfolio managers, and nearly all of them have voiced similar concerns. While the election’s outcome will boost investor sentiment by removing a huge amount of uncertainty, from a policy perspective, there is unlikely to be real progress. In this issue, we bring you lots of ideas about what the next four years might mean, and how to best position your holdings. So let’s get to work, and forget about politics for a while.
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