Shopping in Brazil

Given the economic slowdown in both Brazil and China, foreign investors have begun to look beyond the so-called BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India and China—for growth opportunities. What many don’t realize is that such slowdowns often create attractive opportunities.

Brazil is an excellent case in point. Over the past year, Brazil’s economic growth has stalled, dropping from 7.5 percent annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) to a flatline in the second quarter of 2012, largely because of a drop in raw materials exports and industrial output. The simmering European debt crisis and weakened Chinese demand are largely to blame.

However, the slowdown in Brazil’s economy has yet to significantly affect the average Brazilian. Unemployment in the country remains at a record-low 6 percent, with more than 1 million jobs created so far this year, and this has maintained upward pressure on wages.

So far, the Brazilian government and central bank have effectively deployed stimulus measures—such as slashing interest rates and investing heavily in infrastructure— to keep the economic engine warm. As a result, an investment bet on Brazil’s newly expanding middle class continues to make sense.

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao (NYSE: CBD), which does business as Grupo Pao de Acucar, is Brazil’s largest retailer, operating a chain of more than 1,500 supermarkets, department stores and hypermarkets throughout the country. Think of CBD as the Brazilian Wal-Mart, offering a wide variety of consumer goods and commanding 13 percent of Brazil’s retail food market. The company also has a sizable real estate operation, as it continues to acquire, build and develop sites for its growing number of stores.

Despite Brazil’s slowing economy, retail sales in the country have been growing an average of 7 percent per month for the better part of three years. That’s largely thanks to rising incomes, which have increased about 11 percent annually over the past decade. This has created a large and growing consumer class that’s eager to enjoy the fruits of a higher standard of living.

As a result, CBD has seen sales and revenues consistently rise for more than four years. During the first half of 2012, the company’s same-store sales growth was a clear indication that domestic demand is holding up well. Same-store sales grew 7.6 percent compared to the year-ago period, while gross sales rose 8.4 percent, to BRL27.1 billion. There was a softening in the net profit margin (to 1.4 percent) largely because of price deflation in goods such as fresh produce. Nonetheless, CBD was able to increase earnings a stellar 48 percent, to BRL331 million, during this same period.

Largely sanguine in its outlook, CBD management is continuing its BRL1.8 billion investment program for 2012. Since CBD already owns a substantial portfolio of properties in the areas in which it plans to expand, most of the new investment will go into construction.

Pushing forward is probably a wise decision given that in late August Brazil’s central bank lowered its benchmark overnight rate to 7.5 percent, a 500 basis point drop (inflation is running about 5 percent annually). This is a clear signal that the government is trying to stave off further weakness in the economy, and it will radically drop CBD’s borrowing costs.

Companies that can afford to expand during weak times enjoy a greater share of the eventual economic boom. As the ranks of shoppers in Brazil continue to swell, CBD will be open for business.

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