As we close the books on 2012, I’m using this issue of Global Investment Strategist to examine two countries I expect to outperform in 2013. Both have been relative laggards this year, but I expect their economic stars to align next year as developed economies continue to gain forward momentum, driving both demand and investment dollars in the new year.

I’ll use next week’s issue, when I’ll have complete performance data, to take a look back at how we did in 2012.

While I’m leery of the troubled situation in Europe, despite the strides authorities are making there, Poland has become increasingly interesting because it has resisted the widespread slowdown in the region.

Gross domestic product growth (GDP) in Poland has slowed sharply, but the country continues to run at surprisingly low levels of public and private debt.

According to data from the World Bank, the Polish debt-to-GDP ratio was 55.4 percent last year, placing it about in the middle of the pack on a global basis. At the same time, private credit drove only about half its private sector GDP growth last year.

GDP growth has slowed significantly in Poland in recent quarters, down from an average 4 percent last year to 1.4 percent in the third quarter. However, much of that slowdown stems from the Polish government’s budget cuts to bring its deficit below the European Union’s 3 percent of GDP threshold, rather than a marked slowdown in private business activity.

The country’s banking sector is also surprisingly healthy, considering the fact that banks are floundering in much of the rest of Europe. Based on World Bank data, the capital-to-assets ratio in Poland is currently 7.9 percent, while government debt makes up only about 9 percent of the banking sector’s assets.

Polish banks are also surprisingly prudent lenders, considering some of the weak credit practices of many European institutions in recent years. Polish bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans are currently estimated at 4.5 percent, down from 8.1 percent last year.

Poland is also making strides in developing its critical infrastructure, which has been a continuing challenge since the country’s days as a Soviet satellite.

Casting off some of the last vestiges of the country’s communist past, Polish authorities are working on a plan to begin selling national stakes in industries such as mining and finance. Under the plan currently in the works, the Polish government will pass its shares in many major Polish companies along to its state-owned bank and a special purpose vehicle that will sell them to finance approved infrastructure projects. In all, about 20 billion zlotys are expected to be raised and projects won’t be hard to find.

The Polish government has been long hesitant to significantly expand the country’s debt burden, but it has recognized the need for infrastructure modernization for more than a decade. A plethora of projects are essentially shovel-ready but haven’t been started for lack of funding. Most of those approved projects involve electricity generation and grid improvement, highway construction and the country’s energy sector.

Based on the plan floated by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the country’s Treasury, eventually the special purpose vehicle that will fund these projects will be taken public on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, creating a massive, publicly traded private Polish infrastructure company.

While the plan will likely be several years in the works, it’s an excellent indication of the proactive stance the government is taking on infrastructure modernization and, eventually, reducing the state’s role in those projects.

Poland’s positive economic momentum has been attracting a growing number of international investors, as foreign direct investment in the country hit $18.8 billion in 2011. That figure represents a 46 percent increase over 2010 and it’s expected to grow by a further 12 percent when data is released for full-year 2012.

Finally, both the service and industrial sectors have remained surprisingly strong in Poland, thanks to membership in the European Union, which allows it tariff-free access to the region’s markets. The country’s products have remained in high demand in Europe, largely because its use of the zloty rather than the euro (1 zloty is currently valued at 24 euro cents) gives its output a distinct cost advantage in the euro zone.

If the European economy improves as we expect in 2013, Poland’s economy will likely prove a regional leader, as demand for its exports picks up. The country also has been largely shielded from the region’s debt crisis, another advantage.

The Asian Edge

In Asia, Thailand is one of my favored countries in 2013. It is one of the few countries in the region that hasn’t seen its growth forecast for this year cut. The World Bank has maintained its expectation that Thai GDP growth will come in at around 6.1 percent for the year; next year its economy is forecasted to grow by more than 5 percent.

Thailand has been lucky. It doesn’t have much in the way of direct financial ties to Europe, unlike countries such as Malaysia or even Australia, the bastion of development in the Asia-Pacific region. Europe also is a major destination for Thai exports, which are relatively few to begin with because the nation’s economy depends primarily on its services sector for growth.

Tourism, the primary source of income in the country, has also remained robust, with arrivals up 8.7 percent this year. Considering that Europeans are the main travelers to the country, it’s surprising to see such a healthy increase despite the lingering European debt crisis.

Domestic consumption has also shown resilience; auto sales shot up by more than 50 percent in 2012 while bank lending is up by 8 percent.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country has also remained extremely strong, nearly doubling in 2012 versus 2011 and it is expected to nearly double again in 2013. Much of this year’s investment has been focused on the country’s automotive industry, which not only feeds domestic demand but does a booming business in part exports.

Much of next year’s FDI is expected to be earmarked for infrastructure projects. The nation’s government, a constitutional monarchy, has committed to an ambitious infrastructure development program that’s slated to reach THB2.3 trillion over the next decade. Not only will that investment program fund the construction of roads, seaports and airports, it will also transform the country’s central region into a manufacturing base through the development of transport and electrical grids, as well as a sophisticated flood control system.

The latter project is particularly promising, considering the number of electronics manufacturers based in the area. A global shortage of computer chips occurred last year after massive floods hit Thailand’s central region. None of those manufacturers chose to relocate in the wake of that disaster, thanks to Thailand’s relatively low wages, educated workforce and extremely favorable corporate tax scheme.

While the epic flooding was devastating to Thailand’s economy over the short term, the silver lining is that it opened the government’s eyes to the country’s huge potential and much of its flood control work is expected to be completed by the middle of 2013.

When that work is completed, I expect that a number of manufacturers, especially some of those that are currently based in China, will relocate to Thailand to take advantage of its low taxes and favorable demographics.

See this week’s Stock Spotlight for the best ways to tap into these two growth markets.