Solid Numbers, Big Moves
High-quality energy assets with effective monopoly positions that generate virtually recession-proof fee income: That’s the hallmark of the six master limited partnerships that populate the MLP Profits Conservative Portfolio and the secret of their extremely reliable and rising distributions.
It’s also why these MLPs are safe enough for even the most cautious investors as well as appropriate for anyone who wants to build wealth. If you’re interested in safe income that won’t bounce around with energy price swings, now’s as good a time as any to establish positions, particularly in the three below that have already announced earnings.
Since our last roundup of Conservative picks, two have consummated major moves. Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) completed its merger with the former TEPPCO Partners LP to form the country’s largest energy infrastructure MLP.
Both Enterprise Products and the former TEPPCO are effectively controlled by billionaire Dan Duncan and have cooperated extensively in the past. Joining forces provides key opportunities for synergies at existing projects–particularly in crude oil and refined products–as well as a bigger and more secure platform for future growth. Adding TEPPCO assets also boosts the percentage of Enterprise Products’ overall income coming from extremely steady fees and gives it a considerable presence in barge transport as well.
Enterprise Products’ third quarter results were extremely solid, with distributable cash flow (DCF) covering the payout by a comfortable 1.3-to-1 margin, not including one-time expenses associated with the merger and related TEPPCO debt repurchase. And even with those expenses, coverage was a solid 1.03-to-1.
Natural gas pipeline volumes were up 9 percent from a year ago. Natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation volumes were up 10 percent to a new record. Gross operating volumes for NGL pipelines and services surged 17 percent. Petrochemicals saw a 35 percent jump in gross operating margin.
Ultimately, any fee-based MLP’s ability to grow depends on finding profitable new projects and financing them at good rates. Enterprise Products spent nearly $1.8 billion in growth ventures in 2008 before cutting that roughly in half this year in the face of the recession and lessened activity in the energy patch. The MLP, however, has a wealth of new projects and has been able to issue 30-year debt at less than a 200 basis point spread to Treasuries.
The boost in the distribution to 55.25 cents per share per quarter–effective with the November 5 payment–is the 21st consecutive quarterly increase. The results and TEPPCO merger say there’s a lot more of that ahead.
Yielding a little less than 8 percent–mostly protected as tax deferred return of capital–Enterprise Products Partners LP remains a bedrock buy for those who don’t already own it up to 30.
The other major mover was Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP), which has now officially consolidated its former general partner Magellan Midstream Holdings. The MLP won’t announce its third quarter results until November 3 and isn’t likely to bump up its distribution until the transition is completed. We’ll have more when the numbers are announced.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) is always among the first to get its numbers out in any quarter.
This time around unitholders were treated to solid performance at all the MLP’s division, except for its carbon dioxide operations, which continued to be hit by lower oil patch activity and oil prices that remain well below last year’s. Those comparisons should improve substantially going forward, though division results likely won’t return to mid-2008 heights unless oil prices do.
Elsewhere, results were universally a marked improvement from earlier in the year. Products pipelines enjoyed a 19 percent jump in third quarter segment earnings, putting Kinder on track to meet or beat management’s full-year growth target of 10 percent. That was despite what turned out to be still-soft demand for refined products, which suppressed transport volumes and therefore fees. Positives included an increase in tariffs, cost controls, continued robust demand for ethanol and expansion of facilities.
Natural gas pipelines produced a 10 percent boost in income thanks to contributions from newly completed projects, including the MidContinent Express Pipeline which it owns jointly with MLP Growth Holding Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP). This business should get another lift in coming months from the recent purchase of Crosstex Energy LP’s (NSDQ: XTEX) natural gas treating business.
The terminals business saw earnings rise 9 percent, thanks to increased storage capacity for energy liquids. Growth was actually well below budget of 14 percent, as the bulk side of the business lagged on continued tough steel handling sector conditions. The weak economy is likely to continue affecting this arm of the business, though conditions in steel handling were reportedly improving later in the quarter.
Finally, Kinder’s Canada business beat expectations with 20 percent growth in segment earnings, more than twice the 9 percent growth rate as budgeted. One reason is a “significant” increase in ship traffic through the Port of Vancouver, no doubt a beneficiary of the growing economic recovery of developing Asia.
In recent quarters, Kinder’s distribution has exceeded its distributable cash flow by a slight margin. Management has consistently maintained DCF would bounce back to cover the payout by a comfortable margin later in the year. Third quarter DCF of $1.12 per share made good on that promise, exceeding both the quarterly distribution of $1.04 per share and Wall Street consensus estimates of $1.05. That sets the stage for more growth going forward. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP remains a strong buy up to 60.
Genesis Energy LP (AMEX: GEL) will announce its third quarter numbers on November 5. The diversified owner of bedrock energy infrastructure, however, has already given investors a good idea of what to expect, boosting its payout for the 17th consecutive quarter to a rate of 35.25 cents per unit.
That’s a total increase of 9.3 percent over the past 12 months, a clear sign that its growing asset base continues to product. Buy Genesis Energy LP–still the highest yielding of our Conservative picks–up to 20.
Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP) will be announcing numbers on November 6. But like Genesis, it’s given investors a good reason to be optimistic for its prospects.
Effective with the November 13 payment, the MLP’s new distribution will be 40 cents per unit. That’s a huge 5.3 percent increase from the August 14 payment and is 14.3 percent above year-earlier levels.
The boost is the eight consecutive quarterly raise for Spectra, which has hiked its payout every quarter since inception. And it illustrates parent Spectra Energy’s (NYSE: SE) commitment to growing the MLP as a way to maximize its own cash flow from extremely reliable assets. Spectra Energy Partners LP has surged since our original recommendation but remains a solid buy up to 27.
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP’s (NYSE: SXL) third quarter numbers didn’t measure up to consensus Wall Street expectations. And the result was a late month selloff in the units to its current level in the high 50s.
In our view, however, the selling and the disappointment were far more the result of investor expectations that rose too far and too fast rather any indication of real weakness at Sunoco.
That’s certainly the contention of management, as the MLP simultaneously boosted its distribution to a new quarterly rate of $1.065 per unit effective with the November 13 payment. The boost was also the 18th consecutive quarterly increase–the 25th in the last 26 quarters–and lifted the full-year rate a huge 10.4 percent above year-ago levels.
Breaking down the results, investors seemed to focus on net income, which was slightly lower than year-earlier levels due to income timing for certain positions to take advantage of the energy price cotango. Overall distributable cash flow, however, was up to $1.20 per share, resulting in solid coverage of 1.13-to-1.
Meanwhile, Sunoco Logistics completed a $90 million expansion of its storage and transport project serving the Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. And it acquired cash generating storage/transport assets in Michigan and Oklahoma. The refined products pipeline division overall boosted operating income by 40 percent, despite the fact that volumes slipped not including asset additions. Terminal facilities posted even better numbers, featuring a 51 percent jump in operating income. And management continued to maintain its previous projection of full-year 2009 operating cash flow of $340 million to $360 million.
All that points to more steady results in coming quarters, as the MLP adds assets and the impact of the contango swings levels off. The upshot will be fatter cash flows and more growth in the already generous 7 percent plus tax-advantaged yield. There’s a lot more gas in this MLP’s tank. Buy Sunoco Logistics Partners LP if you haven’t already up to 65.
On a final note, two Aggressive Holdings reported this week, Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM) and Williams Partners LP (NYSE: WPZ). Both hit the cover off the ball thanks to strong management and dramatically better conditions in their commodity-sensitive businesses.
Navios lifted its distribution by another 1.3 percent (5.2 percent year-over-year) and still held DCF coverage to 1.59-to-1. That’s extremely sound for any MLP, particularly for one yielding more than 12 percent. And if management is half right about business conditions in the dry bulk market, it’s likely to go a lot higher still.
Williams saw its net income surge 121 percent and distributable cash flow soar 97 percent. Third quarter DCF per share surged 20 percent and management affirmed strong 1.1 to 1.3-to-1 forecasted coverage of the 10 percent plus distribution in 2010.
Both MLPs remain strong buys for those who can handle some commodity risk in pursuit of extremely explosive growth and huge yields.
We’ll be reporting our analysis of all Portfolio holdings as they’re reported. MLPs in each group will be recapped in the articles appearing on the MLP Profits website and e-mailed to you each week.
In the meantime, if you’ve built out your Portfolio of high-quality MLPs, sit tight. There are going to be ups and downs in the stock market. But there’s nothing like strong underlying businesses that are reliably increasing distributions to build wealth in any environment. And that’s what we have to look forward to.
If you’ve just come aboard, first decide what kind of investor you are. If what you really want is just a safe, reliably rising yield, choose from the Conservative Holdings. If you want to participate in what increasingly looks like a robust bull market for energy, mix it up with Aggressive Holdings or more conservatively with the Growth Holdings.
Note that most of the biggest investment mistakes are made in haste. Get comfortable with what you buy first and think about making your purchases in increments, rather than all at once.
That’s the kind of patient strategy that will keep you in what should be a very profitable game for a long time to come. And MLP Profits will be your guide.
Here’s when to expect the rest of the numbers.
Conservative Holdings
- Genesis Energy LP (AMEX: GEL)–November 5
- Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)–November 3
- Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP)–November 6
Growth Holdings
- DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM)–November 5
- Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP)–November 10*
- Inergy Holdings LP (NSDQ: NRGP)–November 4*
- Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP)–November 3*
*Bloomberg estimate
Aggressive Holdings
- EV Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EVEP)–November 11*
- Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY)–November 5*
- Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE)–November 4
- Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM)–October 29
- Regency Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: RGNC)–November 9
- Williams Partners LP (NYSE: WPZ)–October 29
*Bloomberg estimate
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