A Good Report
No yield is worth its salt unless it’s sustainable. That’s a lesson heedless yield chasers learned all too painfully during the bear market, as the profligate slashed payouts and saw their share prices crater, some to oblivion.
Unfortunately, it looks like other investors are going to be taught the same lesson in coming months.
This week we updated How They Rate to reflect third quarter earnings results. The somewhat shocking result is more than a third of the 110-plus master limited partnerships (MLP) tracked are rated “sell.” If you own any MLPs not in our Aggressive, Conservative and Growth portfolios, make sure you know where they stack up from our earnings comments and advice.
Fortunately, if you’re sticking to our picks you have little or nothing to be concerned about based on third quarter results. In fact, as the portfolio tables show, we’ve actually increased our buy targets for several to take into account their first-rate numbers.
Here’s how the Growth picks stacked up on their important numbers. Note the Conservative and Aggressive picks have been reviewed the past two weeks. Growth picks fall somewhere in between the virtually recession-proof Conservative energy infrastructure picks and the energy-price-playing Aggressive picks. Their success depends on management navigating the risks of the latter for boost growth.
DCP Midstream Partners LP’s (NYSE: DPM) most important number is “adjusted EBITDA,” which is basically cash flow after excluding special items. The third quarter tally was $30.2 million, up 69.7 percent from 2008 and enough to cover the distribution by a comfortable 1.43-to-1 margin.
Like all Growth picks, DCP Midstream combines stable, fee-generating assets with operations where returns are affected by swings in commodity prices. The MLP hedges the majority of its commodity price risk, with the notable exception of the portion of East Texas LLC assets, where most of the throughput is unhedged.
This makes for overall profits that are more volatile than those of our Conservative picks but that have considerably more upside from a rally in commodity prices. Nine months’ standardized distributable cash flow covered the payout by a 1.1-to-1 margin.
By far DCP Midstream’s most important division, Natural Gas Services was a major bright spot, with adjusted EBITDA up 30.8 percent on the addition of a system in Michigan with boosted natural gas liquids (NGL) volume. The positive impact of reduced operating costs offset the negative impact of hurricanes, lower gas throughput volumes in places, and the effect of lower commodity prices on profit spreads.
Wholesale propane logistics operations swung to a cash flow gain on a boost in per unit margins and a 6 percent boost in throughput. Finally, NGL Logistics also posted a bigger gain thanks to a new pipeline interconnect.
One of DCP Midstream’s greatest strengths is the power of its parents, Spectra Energy (NYSE: SEP) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). Both are asset-rich and have proven willing to do valuable drop-downs transactions, handing DCP Midstream cash-generating assets at agreeable prices. More are likely going forward, though Spectra does have another MLP–Conservative Holding Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP)–to pass along assets to.
Looking ahead, the big picture for DCP Midstream is continued growth of fee-generating assets, with the potential for a growth spurt when energy prices bounce back. Management increased its growth forecast to $95 million to $115 million, with an estimated $50 million to $100 million on organic projects, or additions to existing assets. And in the meantime, there’s the yield of well over 9 percent. Buy DCP Midstream Partners LP up to 27.
Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) posted a drop of 25.9 percent in its third quarter distributable cash flow from 2008 levels. The key was lower natural gas prices, which hurt spreads realized on fees from operating its Texas pipeline system.
That was the bad news. The good news is the MLP’s asset buildout continues on track, with a venture with Conservative Holding Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) very promising. The Tiger Pipeline will provide further fee-based income going forward as well.
Even the commodity-price-depressed third quarter tally managed to cover the distribution by roughly a 1-to-1 margin. The winter heating season is ahead, which will help the propane business and should gas spreads as well. Finally, the company ended a long time distraction by settling what was once a $150 million plus suit by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for about $5 million.
We would, of course, be concerned if Energy Transfer’s assets began to underperform for other reasons besides weak commodity prices, or if its access to capital seemed to unravel. The immediate market reaction to the results was some selling, though the units remain basically in the same range they’ve held since their dramatic recovery last spring. We remain convinced, however, that the business fundamentals are continuing to strengthen and that will show up in cash flow in coming quarters.
Until that happens, we don’t expect much dividend growth. But the yield of more than 8 percent and the MLP’s solid business are more than enough reason to buy Energy Transfer Partners LP up to 45 if you haven’t yet.
Inergy LP (NSDQ: NRGY) won’t report its third quarter earnings until November 30. But the propane distributor has nonetheless given us a pretty good indication of what to expect by lifting its quarterly distribution to 67.5 cents per share effective with the November 13 payment. That’s the 32nd consecutive quarterly increase and the 1.5 boost from the prior quarter represents a robust 6.3 percent lift from 2008 levels.
The units have begun moving higher over the past couple months. But still yielding close to 9 percent and on track for more dividend growth ahead, Inergy LP is a buy up to 32.
Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP) will report third quarter results in the coming days. However, unlike other LNG-focused MLPs, it’s set to continue producing steady cash flow. That’s because its business is focused on tankers, which can take their cargo anywhere in the world where demand is solid.
The tankers are also locked into long-term contracts, which eliminates the potential for a cut off of cash when times are tough, as they certainly are now.
In stark contrast, a more popular LNG play, Cheniere Energy (AMEX: LNG), is focused on terminals, which are frankly not taking in cargo now with US gas prices so low. The result there was catastrophic third quarter and a distribution that’s still very much at risk. The difference: While Cheniere Energy is a sell, Teekay LNG Partners LP is a buy up to 27, even after a powerful gain from our initial entry point. And it continues to pay a 9 percent-plus dividend as well.
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