Buy Targets and an Aggressive Addition
Nothing is a buy at any price. The converse is a bit of spot-on timing can dramatically increase your return. Elliott and I set buy targets on our recommendations in MLP Profits so you’ll capture the opportunities for value and avoid paying too much for the rest.
In the early days of this service, nearly a year ago, our targets were frequently well above market prices for many recommendations. Battered during the panic that began in mid-2008 and lasted into March 2009, even high-quality master limited partnerships (MLP) traded at extremely low valuations and lofty yields upward of 10 percent.
That’s no longer the case, as a quick glance at the Portfolio tables reveals. On the plus side, readers who’ve been with us from the beginning are sitting on some hefty profits. In fact, chances are virtually anyone who’s established an MLP position on our recommendation is sitting on a sizeable gain. Even Targa Resources Partners LP (NSDQ: NGLS), which we added last month to replace Williams Pipeline Partners LP (NYSE: WMZ), is already in the black.
On the other hand, though our recommendations have consistently boosted distributions, those same capital gains have left our picks at higher prices–bearing lower-percentage yields. Even our Aggressive Holdings picks now yield an average of between 8 and 9 percent. Meanwhile, all of the Conservative and Growth picks pay less than 8 percent, with Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP) selling for barely 5 percent.
There are a handful of MLPs in our How They Rate universe that still yield in double-digits. Unfortunately, most are potential graveyards of capital.
Capital Products Partners LP (NSDQ: CPLP), for example, pays out 10.1 percent based on current prices. Capital Products, however, slashed its distribution almost 50 percent with its May payment and may have to cut again due to tough conditions in the product-tanker sector.
StoneMor Partners LP (NSDQ: STON) is still dealing out at a nearly 11 percent annualized rate. But the owner of cemeteries continues to cover its payout only thinly. Cheniere Energy Partners LP’s (NYSE: CQP) general partner remains near bankruptcy, and its facilities are almost wholly idle, as low US gas prices and abundant shale reserves discourage import of liquid natural gas.
Adding Encore
The high yield exception is Encore Energy Partners LP (NYSE: ENP), which pays out a 10.3 percent yield that it covered by a 1.5-to-1 margin in 2009. We’ve rated the units a buy for some time; this week we’re adding the MLP to our Aggressive Holdings.
Encore is somewhat riskier than our other producer MLPs, in that management reduces the distribution twice during the financial crisis in response to falling energy prices. That last was a cut from a quarterly rate of 66 cents to 50 cents with the February 2009 payment. Since energy prices bottomed, however, management has ratcheted up the distribution twice, and more increases appear to be on tap later this year.
Management continues to grow its low-cost production on a highly predictable basis. Fourth-quarter output, for example, rose 8 percent over third-quarter levels. Reserves and production are 67 and 68 percent oil, respectively, a major plus in an era of high prices for liquids and low prices for gas.
We’ll get a better look on when to expect distribution increases when Encore announces its first quarter 2010 results on May 6. Based on management’s recent statements and strong oil prices, however, it’s shaping up to be a solid year.
Reserves and production growth appear to be exceeding guidance and the company’s additions of carbon dioxide (CO2) reserves are setting the stage for solid growth at certain properties where it uses “carbon flooding” to boost output. This unconventional method of drilling is used primarily to get the most out of mature wells where the geology is well known and is therefore both low-cost and predictable.
The MLP also differs from our other producer holdings in that it’s been willing to sell certain properties to apply cash elsewhere. Management projects the sale of its Barnett Shale properties and subsequent purchase of the Conroe field will boost output 7 percent this year, strengthen the balance sheet and improve cost effectiveness.
Distribution coverage was a robust in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on an average wellhead price of $67.51 per barrel and gas prices of $4.48 per thousand cubic feet. Both figures should show improvement in the first quarter and into 2010, though gas remains far cheaper than oil.
Encore’s demonstrated ease raising capital in recent months is promising for financing future acquisitions economically. Trading at a market capitalization roughly equal to a conservative valuation of proven reserves, Encore Energy Partners LP, a new addition to the Aggressive Portfolio, is a buy up to 22.50.
The ideal place to get funds for buying Encore is from the proceeds of the sale of half your stake in Aggressive Holding Navios Maritime Partners LP (NYSE: NMM). Navios is up well more than 100 percent since we added it back in June 2009. We’re maintaining that recommendation at this time, despite the pullback of the past couple days.
As its robust first-quarter profits attest, Navios is a superbly run outfit. The MLP’s 1.2 percent distribution increase announced this week is conservative–but it’s also the third consecutive quarterly boost. And it’s likely to be followed by more increases this year.
Fully 100 percent of existing cash flows are locked in under contract for the rest of the year. Moreover, 84.6 percent of cash flow is locked in for 2011, 79.7 percent for 2012. That’s an extraordinarily high percentage of secure income in this very cyclical industry, and it continues to be augmented by the addition of new ships to the fleet.
Were Navios forced to sign contracts right now for the shipping capacity opening up next year (15.4 percent of current total), chances are it would get less than its 2010 average contractual daily charter-out rate of $27,980. That’s because market rates are still below that level. The MLP’s average daily charter-in rate of $13,449 is similarly above current market levels.
On the other hand, these rates are rising again. And management’s conservative strategy of locking in long-term contracts in what’s basically a laddered way limits the impact of a bad year for contract renewal rates on overall revenue. That’s a stark difference between Navios and other shipping companies, which are literally at the mercy of the ebb and flow of dry-bulk shipping rates.
As for operating statistics, first-quarter numbers showed strong improvement over the prior year. For starters, Navios added four operating vessels, bringing its total to 13. Fleet utilization was steady at 99.51 percent, so the result was a 32.8 percent jump in operating days.
Coupled with a 4.2 percent boost in time charter equivalent per day rates to $27,222, the results were an 82.1 percent increase in cash available for distribution and a 68.8 percent increase in distributable cash flow generated. That covered distributions by a solid 1.2-to-1 margin. Finally, fleet growth is already fully funded, which positions the MLP for strong cash flow growth ahead.
The knock on Navios: It’s trading in a range that’s 15 to 20 percent above our buy target after staging one of its most impressive bull runs in its history. Investors seem to be ignoring the cyclicality of the business, and the fact that first-quarter 2011 cash flows could fall if dry-bulk rates don’t rise markedly over the next six to eight months. The recent extreme volatility in the units is another worrisome sign that they’ve gotten ahead of themselves, at least in the near term, and are due for a rest.
Ultimately, we see Navios units going a lot higher. That’s why we continue to recommend you hold half your stake, despite today’s high unit price and the opportunity to walk away with a substantial profit.
This is a far more valuable company than it was at its initial public offering (IPO) in November 2007, when it came on the scene with four vessels. And it’s only now getting back to its IPO price of $20 a share. But when something comes this far this fast, there’s often a pause before the assault on higher highs. Let’s lock in some of our profit now.
Note that we’re raising buy targets on two other Aggressive Holdings: EV Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EVEP), to 34, and Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY), to 25.
EV has increased its distribution for the 13th consecutive quarter since its IPO in late 2006. More important, management continues to put the pieces in place for further growth in output, reserves and cash flows. The focus is on operating efficiency and the LP has numerous opportunities for asset “drop downs” from parent EnerVest that will up cash flows going forward. First-quarter earnings are projected for a May 11 announcement and are expected to show strong gains. EV Energy Partners LP is a buy up to 34.
As for Legacy, it will release quarterly results on May 5 after the markets close. Unlike EV, it hasn’t raised its distribution since the August 2008 payment. But neither has it been forced to cut, thanks to management’s generally conservative hedging and production policies. That, in turn, is in large part due to 27 percent ownership of the common units by management, which closely allies the interests of those who run the MLP with its equity owners.
Legacy deserves a raised buy target in part due to continued strength in oil prices but also because of continued advances growing output in its core Permian Basin production region. The target for 2010 is $200 million in acquisitions, of which $14 million were made in the Permian last month. And with a very conservative balance sheet, the MLP is in great shape to do a lot more this year. Buy Legacy Reserves LP up to 25.
We’re not raising buy targets for either Linn Energy LLC (NSDQ: LINE) or Regency Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: RGNC), mainly because neither trades above our current recommended entry point.
Linn reported solid first-quarter numbers this week, with average daily production exceeding management’s projections and operating expenses of $1.63 per thousand cubic feet coming in well below guidance of $1.96. Cash flow also came in well ahead of guidance, as did distribution coverage of 1.26-to-1, based on distributable cash flow.
Linn continues to demonstrate great skill in finding new production opportunities, financing them in a low-cost way, squeezing out operating costs and hedging output at favorable prices. The MLP moved into a new operating area in northern Michigan during the quarter with a $330 million deal, an affirmation that it not only survived the downturn in the energy markets but is well positioned for profit.
Linn now has hedged 90 percent of its expected output through 2013 and has established hedges for 32 percent of production for 2014 and 2015 as well. Reserve life is approximately 20 years, and the MLP has boosted its percentage of natural gas liquids and oil in the ground to 50 percent, leveraging it further to liquids rather than natural gas.
All that is extremely promising for Linn’s long-term future, as expanding production and anticipated margin increases are for 2010. Our expectation is for an eventual resumption of distribution increases, made possible by increases in coverage rates over the next several quarters. Energy prices are still the critical part of the equation.
But for a low-risk bet on energy, it’s hard to beat Linn Energy LLC, a buy up to 28.
Regency Energy Partners LP remains a buy up to 22.
Conservative and Growth
The upshot is all of our Aggressive Holdings are now below our buy targets. Again, these are essentially bets on energy prices, albeit in producers that are decidedly on the conservative side for the industry. All of them, however, have demonstrated they’re in top position to profit from what we expect to be continued strength in energy prices, even as they’ve demonstrated staying power despite the very tough conditions we’ve recently witnessed.
Growth Holdings combine exposure to energy prices with strong fee-based businesses, while Conservative Holdings are basically 100 percent fees. As a result, there’s a good deal less volatility, and dividends are considerably more secure. That’s fundamentally why they score better on our MLPP Safety Rating System than Aggressive Holdings.
On the other side, there’s also less potential to profit from rising energy prices. Consequently, it’s more difficult to justify raising buy targets on a Conservative or Growth holding that’s come a long way in a short time.
Two weeks ago we raised buy targets on two Conservative Holdings, Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD), to 35, and Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP), to 70. We’re raising Enterprise Products’ target once again, to 36.
Both MLPs have since justified our faith by posting blockbuster first-quarter earnings numbers. Last week Elliott gave the run down on Kinder’s strong results and accompanying distribution increase to a quarterly rate of $1.07 per unit. Management now anticipates its earlier end-year payout estimate of $1.10 per unit will prove conservative. That’s plenty of reason to expect this first-rate, fees-first MLP to blast well on past our buy target. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP is a buy up to 70.
This week, it was Enterprise’s opportunity to wow investors, with its first string of numbers since the death of Dan Duncan, founder and chairman of the company.
As we’ve noted numerous times in the past, earnings per share calculated under generally accepted accounting principles is basically a useless number for MLPs. Happily, the underlying numbers were even more impressive than the headline number that was, quizzically, picked up in the media.
First, Enterprise boosted its gross operating margin by 11 percent, thanks to a combination of increased volumes of natural gas liquids (NGL), crude oil and petrochemicals shipped, as well as higher NGL fractionation volumes. Coupled with solid cost controls, that added up to $580 million of distributable cash flow, a third consecutive quarterly record. Distributable cash covered the distribution by a very strong 1.4-to-1 margin. That enabled the MLP to retain 27 percent of it, or $156 million, in addition to boosting the payout for the 23rd consecutive quarter (5.6 percent year over year).
The key to higher volumes was the addition of fee-generating assets via construction and acquisitions. Enterprise’s pace of expansion has actually accelerated in recent months, thanks to the scale obtained from the merger with former affiliate TEPPCO Partners LP. The most recent deal was the $1.2 billion acquisition of midstream assets serving the Haynesville Shale trend that are scalable, meaning they can be expanded rapidly to meet growing demand.
Enterprise is also benefitting from the competitive advantage of the US petrochemical industry in global markets. That’s dramatically boosted demand for its midstream assets, which are essential in many areas for getting product to buyers. And it’s increased opportunity to add more infrastructure as producers move to meet demand. The construction of a new 75,000 barrel per day NGL fractionator at Mont Belvieu in Texas is on schedule to start up in early 2011. Fees in this business have risen five-fold since 2005 and look headed higher.
Not surprisingly, given these opportunities, Enterprise’s capital spending continues to be focused mainly on growing the enterprise. First-quarter spending levels were $321 million on growth and just $33 million on maintenance capital expenditures. That mirrors plans to spend $2.8 billion for the full year (including the $1.2 billion purchase announced this month), versus just $250 million in maintenance that management now says it will “have to hustle” to spend.
Just as robust CAPEX is the key to rising cash flow and distributions, so is low-cost capital essential to funding it. And from a unit price at historic highs to 10-year debt selling at barely a 100 basis point premium to US Treasury notes, there’s no shortage of cheap funding.
Throw in the Duncan family’s pledge to reinvest at least $50 million in distributions in May and $150 million for 2010 and you’ve got an overwhelmingly bullish case for Enterprise–as well as a reason for newcomers to buy it despite its nearly 50 percent rise over the past 12 months. Buy Enterprise Products Partners LP up to 36.
We’re also raising buy target on Sunoco Logistics Partners LP (NYSE: SXL), to 68, a point where it too rates a buy again for those who don’t already own it. The units traded at nearly $72 per in anticipation of this week’s earnings announcement and have since backed off sharply. Some advisors termed the results “weak.” We see rather a classic affirmation of the old saw “buy the rumor, sell the news” playing out, with basically expected numbers failing to excite traders who have basically bailed.
Earnings per share of $1.06 for the first quarter were below the consensus estimate of around $1.46. Distributable cash flow, meanwhile, was also lower at $53.2 million versus $89.8 million the year before.
The most relevant number, however, was the 2.3 percent boost in Sunoco’s distribution, a 9.9 percent jump over the prior year. That suggests management is convinced that the shortfall in the headline numbers is indeed going to prove short-lived. The boost is the 27th in the past 28 quarters and still leaves the MLP with superior dividend coverage of 1.6-to-1, leaving the door open to further growth this year.
Looking more closely, the apparent rebound in North American refining is starting to reverse last year’s decline in Sunoco’s business serving that sector. Meanwhile, operating income from the ultra-steady terminals business rose solidly. The crude oil pipeline system’s fees were affected by an unusual contango in the futures prices of black gold last year. That was offset, however, by increased pipeline capacity and should show up as higher earnings next year.
Like Enterprise, Sunoco’s capital spending is weighted toward growth rather than maintenance, with $22.3 million targeted for the former in the first quarter versus just $4.4 million for the latter. The MLP expects to spend $175 to $200 million on expansion CAPEX in 2010, excluding acquisitions. That suggests we’ll see a lot more fee generating potential, which will show up as energy market conditions continue to normalize.
As for cost of capital, the record-high unit price makes equity capital cheap to issue. Meanwhile, management has restructured the incentive distribution rights with the general partner to improve the cost of capital. And the MLP’s 10-year notes have a yield-to-maturity of just 5.1 percent–or just 139 basis points above US Treasuries.
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP is as valuable a franchise as ever; the recent dip is good reason to buy up to 68 if you haven’t yet.
Rounding out the Conservative picks, we’re holding our buy targets on Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP) and Spectra Energy Partners LP (NYSE: SEP) at levels that are below their current prices. We may yet see some justification for raising either, or both.
Magellan, for example, appears to have resumed distribution growth, boosting its quarterly rate to 72 cents per unit from a prior rate of 71. It may give us more reason for an upgrade when it releases first quarter earnings on May 4.
For now, however, the yield is still barely 6 percent, and our buy target for Magellan Midstream Partners LP remains 47.
As for Spectra, it, too, continues to raise its distribution like clockwork, boosting the payout last week to 42 cents from 41 cents per share. Even at that level, however, the yield is still only a little over 5 percent, or less than a percentage point above the yield on general partner Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE).
Again, we may see something with the first quarter earnings release on May 5 to justify at least some kind of boost. But nearly 20 percent above our buy target of 27, there’s no reason to buy Spectra Energy Partners LP now.
Nor is there any reason to move on DCP Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: DPM) and Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) now. The pair may indeed give us reason to boost our target on June 3 and May 6, when they’re projected to release first-quarter numbers, respectively. Both are holding their distributions flat at the moment, however, just as they’ve done now for more than two years. And given the big gains they’ve made for us thus far, there’s every reason to be patient rather than diving in.
We’re also holding buy targets steady for Targa Resources Partners LP (NSDQ: NGLS) and Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP). But that’s entirely because they continue to trade below them. Both MLPs, in fact, have increased their worth as businesses.
This week Teekay increased its distribution a solid 5.3 percent, the result, in management’s words, of “the incremental cash flow contribution from several vessels that have been acquired over the past year. That bodes well for its expected release of first-quarter profits on May 14.
Targa, meanwhile, completed a previously announced asset drop-down from partner Targa Resources of natural gas gathering and processing plants in West Texas and coastal Louisiana. These assets are likely to fund a distribution increase, which could be verified by a solid first-quarter earnings report on May 5. We’ll have more on both as they release their numbers.
Two Growth Holdings did earn boosts in their buy targets. We believe strongly that you’ll do better holding individual MLPs rather than a fund like the closed-end Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return (NYSE: KYE). But for those who want a diversified play that can be held in an IRA without filing a K-1, Kayne is still your best choice.
The fund’s portfolio lists many MLP favorites, including Kinder Morgan Energy Partners and Enterprise Products. As with all funds, the main drawback is its premium to net asset value, which right now running on the high side at around 9 percent. Put another way, you’re spending $1 to get 91 cents worth of assets.
The good news is the dividend yield is still solid at a little over 7 percent and it’s still best in class, with a portfolio similar to Tortoise Energy Infrastructure (NYSE: TYG) but selling at only half the premium to NAV. Buy Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return up to 27.
Finally, Inergy LP (NYSE: NRGY) gets a boost to its buy target after raising its distribution for the 34th consecutive quarter. The increase to 69.5 cents per unit equates to a 6.1 percent year-over-year and, more importantly, augurs much more to come.
We’ll get a pretty good idea of how much to expect when the propane/midstream energy company releases its first quarter results on May 4. Until then, Inergy LP is a buy up to 39 for those who don’t already own it.
Here’s a listing of when remaining MLP Profits Portfolio earnings reports are slated to come in. We’ll have a recap for you in the week they’re reported, punctuated by Alerts when warranted. Until then, stick to our buy targets.
Conservative Holdings
- Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL)–May 6 (confirmed)
- Magellan Midstream Partners LP (NYSE: MMP)–May (confirmed)
- Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SXL)–May 5 (confirmed)
Growth Holdings
- Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP)–May 6 (confirmed)
- Inergy LP (NSDQ: NRGY)–May 4 (confirmed)
- Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return (NYSE: KYE)–(fund)
- Targa Resource Partners (NSDQ: NGLS)–May 5
- Teekay LNG Partners (NYSE: TGP)–May 14
Aggressive Holdings
- Encore Energy Partners LP (NYSE: ENP)–May 6 (confirmed)
- EV Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EVEP)–May 11
- Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY)–May 5 (confirmed)
- Regency Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: RGNC)–May 10 (confirmed)
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