Copper Wealth
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On to the issue . . .
Chile isn’t just a popular destination for individual investors.
Last year foreign direct investment (FDI) into Chile reached USD26.4 billion, a 52.7 percent increase over 2011.
In terms of FDI inflows, Chile was second only to Brazil in Latin America and showed the seventh-highest growth rate in the world. It’s also important to note that Chile’s FDI inflow growth came against a backdrop of slowing overall global investment. While FDI inflows into Latin America and the Caribbean rose by 7.2 percent last year, global inflows actually declined by 18 percent to USD1.3 trillion, making Latin America one of the few regions foreign companies were willing to sink their cash into.
Investments in the country’s mining sector accounted for 56.7 percent of those inflows, with Chile’s services sector a distant second at 18.5 percent of FDI.It’s not surprising that mining would be Chile’s most popular investment sector, considering that copper is the country’s major export. In fact, it’s one of the largest copper exporters in the world.
Still, investment in Chile’s mining sector is a clear vote of confidence in the global economy recovery; mining is an extremely capital intensive business and companies are slow to put their capital at risk without the expectation of a pay off.
And paying off it is.
Housing starts in the US jumped to 954,000 in December, a nearly 37 percent increase over the 697,000 starts in December 2011. The number also beat the consensus expectation of 851,000 starts by 12.1 percent. Overall, housing starts last year jumped by 28.1 percent. That drove a huge pickup in demand for copper pipe and wiring in the US, even as construction in China surged thanks to growing private investment and the construction of more than 6 million housing units by the government.
At the same time, American auto sales hit their highest levels in years in 2012, with sales growing by 14 percent last month alone. Global sales by all automakers are estimated to have grown by nearly 7 percent last year.
Improved auto demand plays a huge role in copper demand, since it is a major component of engines, radiators and brakes. A car typically contains nearly a mile of copper wiring. The growing popularity of hybrid vehicles is also helping demand. While a typical car contains around 45 pounds of copper, a hybrid contains closer to 100 pounds, given its greater reliance on electricity.
Repairs to global electrical grids following natural disasters such as the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and Super Storm Sandy in the US is also driving wire demand, in addition to investment in grid improvement.
As a result of that growing demand, copper prices have been steadily improving for about a year, up from a low of USD316 in late 2011 to about USD375 today. While that’s a far cry from the USD440 high a couple of years ago, I would be surprised to see copper prices get there again by early next year, assuming we at least maintain the current economic status quo or even see improved growth from here.
That will continue to benefit Chilean exports which have surged over the past three months, largely due to improved copper demand.
That, in turn, is providing jobs and pushing incomes higher for the average Chilean. As a result, consumer spending in the country has been steadily rising over the past several years, as you can see in the chart below.
Improving commodity prices and growing consumer spending are creating impressive opportunities in the Chilean markets. Still, most Chilean equities are currently trading at a discount to their Brazilian peers, despite the fact that the Chilean economy is expected to grow by nearly 5 percent this year versus Brazil’s forecast growth of 3 percent.
As a result, based on the more favorable valuations in the face of greater growth, Chile should be a great haven for investors for the rest of this year; some of my favorite plays are in this issue’s Stock Spotlight.
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