Statistics Canada reported today that employment in the Great White North rose by 50,700 in February, reversing course after a decline in January of 21,900. New jobs were spread between full- and part-time work.

The number of jobs added beat the median of 22 estimates compiled by Bloomberg News Service, 8,000, by more than six times. The actual figure was more than double even the high forecast of 25,000 new jobs.

Canada’s unemployment rate remained at 7 percent, as more people participated in the labor force.

Canada has added 336,000 jobs over the past year, employment growing by 1.9 percent, predominantly in full-time work. Over the same period the total number of hours worked also increased by 1.9 percent.

Ontario (35,000), British Columbia (20,000), Nova Scotia (3,000) and New Brunswick (2,900) posted job gains, while employment in Manitoba decreased by 3,200. Quebec was little changed.

Employment in resource-rich Saskatchewan was little changed in February, though growth of 4.3 percent over the past 12 months has pushed the provincial unemployment rate down 1.1 percentage points to 3.8 percent, the lowest since November 2008 and the lowest among Canada’s provinces.

In Alberta 4,200 new jobs were created in February, while 52,900 new jobs were added over the trailing 12 months, a 2.5 percent increase. Unemployment in the province remained steady at 4.5 percent, second only to Saskatchewan among Canadian provinces, as more people entered the work force.

Alberta’s gains were concentrated in professional services, trade, finance, insurance and real estate, while jobs were shed in public administration, manufacturing and oil and gas extraction.

Despite the increase in provincial jobs Ontario’s unemployment rate remained 7.7 percent. A year-over-year gain of 1.7 percent trailed the national average of 1.9 percent.

Unemployment remains highest in Canada’s eastern provinces, with New Brunswick (10.1 percent), Nova Scotia (9.3 percent) and Quebec (7.4 percent) posting the highest rates of joblessness.

Employment in services rose by 59,300 in February, while jobs related to goods production fell by 8,600.

Professional, scientific and technical service jobs rose by 26,200, as retail and wholesale employment increased by 13,200 and food service and accommodation by 21,100.

Private companies hired 29,200 workers in February, exceeding the 9,400 increase in public-sector jobs.

StatsCan reported earlier this week that the country had the smallest merchandise trade deficit in almost a year in January on higher exports of crude oil and bitumen.

The US Dept of Labor had more good news on the North American employment front, as Canada’s southern neighbor and largest trading partner added 236,000 jobs in February.

The US unemployment rate declined to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent and is at its lowest level since December 2008.

Job gains were the highest since November 2012 and were broad based, led by professional services (73,000), construction (48,000), health care (32,000) and retail (24,000). The median estimate among 90 analysts polled by Bloomberg was an increase of 165,000 jobs. The median unemployment rate estimate, based on 85 forecasts, was for it to remain unchanged at 7.9 percent.

Employment gains for January were revised lower, but December hiring was revised up, resulting in little change overall. The number of new jobs created in January was revised to 119,000 from 157,000, while December’s figure was revised up to 219,000 from 196,000.

The US economy has added an average of 191,000 jobs over the past three months.

In February the average workweek rose 0.1 hour to 34.5, while average hourly earnings climbed by USD0.04, or 0.2 percent, to USD23.82. Hourly wages have risen 2.1 percent over the past 12 months. All the hiring in February took place in the private sector. Business added 246,000 jobs, while government positions were cut by 10,000.

The Canadian dollar spiked upon release of the StatsCan employment data to an intraday high of USD0.9771 but has settled back to USD0.9724 as of 2 pm ET on Friday, March 8. The loonie has traded below parity with the buck for the past month, its longest stretch below USD1 since the early May to early August period of 2012.

There’s also more encouraging news from the Middle Kingdom, as China’s exports surged 21.8 percent in February, well ahead of analysts’ expectations of single-digit growth as companies shut down for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Imports fell 15.2 percent, a decline from January’s 28 percent growth, which suggested domestic demand might be weakening. But the February data is clouded by the holiday, when companies shut down for up to two weeks.

Outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao said earlier this week in remarks prepared for China’s annual parliament meeting that the country would do what was necessary to achieve its target of 7.5 percent growth this year.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1 percent this week, noting that it will likely remain unchanged for some time but hinting again that the next move will be “higher.”

But BoC Governor Mark Carney, who will depart June 1, 2013, in preparation to assume the leadership of the Bank of England on July 1, at the same time maintained the softer tone he adopted in January’s statement on monetary policy, saying inflation will “remain low in the near term” in an economy with “material excess capacity.”

Mr. Carney and company concluded, “The considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required.”

In January the BoC noted that a rate increase was “less imminent.” But Mr. Carney has signaled since April 2012 that the central bank’s next move would probably be to tighten policy.

At any rate, the longest period with no change to it benchmark in more than half a century will continue.

The BoC forecast in January that the Canadian economy will grow by 2 percent in 2013. In its statement this week it said it expects growth “to pick up through 2013,” led by household spending, exports and investment.

The Canadian dollar has softened to its lowest levels since late June 2012 on a combination of myriad factors, likely including the potential impact of the US “sequester” on North American trade and continuing high price differentials between Canadian crude and US crude as well as the BoC’s softer monetary stance in recent statements.

There are also probably technical factors at work that could pull the loonie even lower.

But based on longer-term factors, such as the fiscal health of the Canadian federal government, the position of Canada relative to resource-hungry emerging Asian nations and its everlasting relationship with what remains the world’s largest economy–one that continues to show signs of returning to a more normal economic condition and with which it forms the biggest bilateral trade relationship on the planet–this softness in the loonie represents a buying opportunity.

And going long dividend-paying Canadian equities is a great way to enjoy the rebound in multiple ways, through the impact of an appreciating currency on regular payouts as well as for the effect on capital-appreciation.

Bay Street Beat

It’s been a difficult stretch for longtime CE Portfolio Holding Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT). Management announced a 65 percent cut in its dividend on March 1, 2013, along with a reduced forecast for the full year.

The company has also slightly adjusted its development program in favor of earlier-stage power projects that entail upfront capital investment but with a longer lag time before those investments lead to cash flow.

The reaction in the market has been swift and severe. Management, in its quarterly conference call and during a follow-up interview with CE Editor Roger Conrad, essentially conceded that what it’s looking at is a wholesale swap of one type of investor–focused on high and stable dividends–for another that’s more concerned with growth.

Atlantic Power will continue to pay a dividend, at a rate that, in management’s estimation, is more aligned with projected cash flow from the company’s projects. But a subtle shift in emphasis on the development side means this is now a more aggressive, growth-oriented story.

Bay Street has been equally harsh in its handling of the company. Now as never before Atlantic Power will have to prove to investors and analysts the viability of its business model.

Here’s how analysts have reacted to management’s major announcement.

Scotia Capital maintained a “sector underperform” rating on the stock but slashed its 12-month price target to CAD6 from CAD10. Desjardins Securities cut the stock from “buy” to “hold” and halved its 12-month target price, from CAD16 to CAD8.

Macquarie kept an “underperform” rating but cut its price forecast to CAD7 from CAD10. BMO Capital Markets also held its rating at “underperform” but reduced its 12-month target price from CAD12 to CAD7. RBC Capital Markets maintained an “underperform” rating but slashed its 12-month target price from CAD11 to CAD7.

CIBC World Markets reiterated a “sector perform” rating but cut its 12-month target price from CAD12 to CAD7.50. TD Securities still rates the stock “hold” but with a new forecast of CAD7.21, down from 12.48.

The average 12-month target price for Atlantic Power is now CAD7.10, down more than 40 percent from CAD11.91 a month ago. Since Feb. 8, 2013, the date of publication for the February issue of CE, the stock has fallen 53.4 percent from a close of CAD12.25 to CAD5.70 as of the close of trading on Thursday, March 7, 2013.

Here are highlights of other changes made by Bay Street analysts to investment advice and 12-month target prices for Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings since the February 2013 issue.

AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF) was raised to “hold” from “underweight” at EVA Dimensions in the aftermath of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 earnings announcement. Scotia Capital, meanwhile, reiterated a “sector underperform” rating but boosted its 12-month target price for AltaGas’ stock to CAD30 from CAD28.

National Bank Financial initiated coverage of Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF) with an “outperform” rating and a 12-month target price of CAD18.

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF) was raised to “outperform” from “market perform” by FirstEnergy Capital Corp, with a corresponding 12-month target price increase from CAD32 to CAD34.

Raymond James initiated coverage of Brookfield Renewable with an “outperform” rating and a CAD34 12-month target price. The stock has been placed on the restricted list at BMO Capital Markets, Scotia Capital and Credit Suisse, likely in advance of Bird engaging the firms for investment banking purposes.

EVA Dimensions downgraded Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF) from “overweight” to “hold.” EVA doesn’t provide 12-month target prices.

Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE) was upgraded to “sector perform” from “underperform” at National Bank Financial, with a stable 12-month target price of CAD8. EVA Dimensions upgraded the stock to “hold” from “underweight.”

Jacob Securities Inc, meanwhile, cut Just Energy to “reduce” from “hold,” at the same time cutting its 12-month target price from CAD10 to CAD6.50.

Haywood Securities Inc initiated coverage of Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF) with a “sector outperform” rating and a 12-month target price of CAD60. EVA Dimensions raised Keyera to “underweight” from “sell,” which is basically a wash under Bloomberg’s standardization of Bay Street/Wall Street analyst-speak.

BMO Capital Markets downgraded Keyera to “market perform” from “outperform” but boosted its 12-month target price from CAD53 to CAD55.

Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA) was raised to “outperform” from “sector perform” with a corresponding increase in the 12-month target price from CAD31 to CAD35 at RBC Capital Markets. Macquarie, meanwhile, raised its 12-month target price for Pembina from CAD35 to CAD37, and BMO Capital Markets, though it maintained a “market perform” rating, raised its forecast to CAD32 from CAD29.

CIBC World Markets (from CAD30.50 to CAD33.50), Haywood Securities (from CAD32.50 to CAD34), FirstEnergy Capital Corp (from CAD32 to CAD34.50), TD Securities (from CAD28 to CAD32), National Bank Financial (from CAD34 to CAD36), Peters & Co Ltd (from CAD30 to CAD33), Canaccord Genuity Corp (from CAD31 to CAD35) and Scotia Capital (from CAD31 to CAD33) all maintained their ratings but boosted their 12-month target prices.

Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF) earned an upgrade to “buy” from “market perform” at Cormark Securities, with a substantial increase in the 12-month price target from CAD29 to CAD40.

National Bank Financial downgraded the manufacturer of portable grain-handling equipment to “underperform” from “sector perform” but held its price forecast at CAD32.50. EVA Dimensions cut the stock to “sell” from “underweight.”

Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF) earned an upgrade from “sector perform” to “sector outperform” and an increase in its 12-month target price from CAD8.50 to CAD9 at Scotia Capital.

Dundee Securities initiated coverage of Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF) with a “buy” rating and a 12-month target price of CAD49.50. That implies upside from the stock’s March 7 close of CAD38.88 of 27.3 percent.

IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF) was upgraded to “buy” from “hold” with a corresponding increase in its 12-month target price to CAD8.50 from CAD7 at Canaccord Genuity Corp. National Bank Financial upgraded the stock to “outperform” from “sector perfrom” but maintained a price forecast of CAD7.50.

EVA Dimensions cut Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF) from “hold” to “underweight.” Each of the other nine houses that cover the stock reiterated advice that translates to “buy” according to Bloomberg’s standardized language.

CIBC World Markets upgraded Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF) from “sector perform” to “sector outperform” but reduced its 12-month target price from CAD20.50 to CAD19.50.

Dundee Securities Corp initiated coverage of PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF) with a “buy” rating and a 12-month target price of CAD13. EVA Dimensions upgraded to stock to “overweight” from “hold.”

BMO Capital Markets maintained a “hold” rating but sliced its target price from CAD11.50 to CAD9. Macquarie kept its “neutral” rating in place but cut its 12-month forecast to CAD9.50 from CAD12.

Peters & Co Ltd reduced its target from CAD10 to CAD8 as it reiterated a “sector underperform” rating. Barclays, which rates the stock “equalweight,” reduced its 12-month target price to CAD9 from CAD13. Alta Capital Corp Inc still rates the stock “sector perform” but forecasts a price of CAD9.50 a year from now, down from CAD11.50.

Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF) earned a 12-month target price increase from CAD27 to CAD30 at BMO Capital Markets, which reiterated an “outperform” rating. RBC Capital Markets also reiterated an “outperform” rating and boosted its forecast, from CAD28 to CAD30.

CIBC World Markets reiterated a “sector perform” rating but increased its 12-month price target on Peyto to CAD26 from CAD25. Salman Partners continues to rate the stock a “hold” but increased its target to CAD26 from CAD22.50.

TD Securities, which also rates Peyto a hold, nevertheless raised its target to CAD26 from CAD25. Barclays maintained an “equalweight” call but boosted its forecast to CAD27 from CAD26.

Canaccord Genuity (from CAD27.50 to CAD28), Haywood Securities Inc (from CAD27 to CAD31), National Bank Financial (from CAD28 to CAD30) and Peters & Co Ltd (from CAD28 to CAD30) all maintained ratings that translate to “buy” according to Bloomberg but raised their 12-month target prices.

Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF) was downgraded to “market perform” from “outperform” by FirstEnergy Capital Corp, though the 12-month target price was raised from CAD55 to CAD57. Salman Partners also cut its rating, from “buy” to “hold,” but raised its target price, from CAD51.50 to CAD53.75.

BMO Capital Markets (from CAD55 to CAD57), TD Securities (from CAD60 to CAD62), Scotia Capital (from CAD54 to CAD56) and National Bank Financial (from CAD53 to CAD54) all maintained Bloomberg-ese “buy” ratings but boosted target prices.

RBC Capital Markets maintained a “sector perform” rating on Vermilion but raised its 12-month target price to CAD58 from CAD52. Alta Corp Capital Inc still rates the stock “sector perform” but sees it at CAD55 a year from now, up from a prior forecast of CAD52.

Peters & Co Ltd reinitiated coverage of Vermilion with a “sector outperform” rating and a CAD58 12-month target price.

Raymond James maintained a “market perform” rating on Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF) but reduced its 12-month target price to CAD40 from CAD45. Desjardins Securities kept a “hold” rating but cut its price forecast to CAD43 from CAD48. Cormark Securiteis Inc, meanwhile, still rates the stock “market perform” but sees it at CAD40 in 12 months, from a prior forecast of CAD48.

PI Financial Corp is still “neutral” on the stock but now sees it at CAD39.50, down from CAD46. BMO Capital Markets reiterated a “market perform” rating but reduced its 12-month target price from CAD45 to CAD42. Scotia Capital held a “sector perform” rating but has a new price forecast of CAD38, down from CAD43.

RBC Capital Markets, meanwhile, still rates the stock “outperform” but slashed its 12-month target price from CAD52 to CAD44.

EVA Dimensions “cut” the stock from “buy” to “overweight.”

Here’s how the CE Portfolio stacks up on Bay Street near the end of the reporting period for fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 results.

The number of analyst “buy,” “hold” and “sell” ratings for each company are shown, followed by the average 12-month price target among the analysts that provide such guidance.

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–6–2–1 (CAD37.07)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–6–3–0 (CAD17.66)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–1–5–1 (CAD14.25)
• Brookfield Real Estate Services Inc (TSX: BRE, OTC: BREUF)–0–1–0 (CAD13.50)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPFF)–6–3–0 (CAD32.72)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–8–3–0 (CAD27.00)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–8–5–0 (CAD34.20)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–3–5–0 (CAD23.07)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–4–3–0 (CAD40.96)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–4–2–0 (CAD10.50)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–5–5–1 (CAD11.59)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, NYSE: JE)–1–3–2 (CAD8.50)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–8–3–1 (CAD57.40)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–4–5–1 (CAD34.09)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, NYSE: PBA)–9–3–1 (CAD34.17)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–3–6–0 (CAD29.81)
• Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–4–12–2 (CAD23.46)
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, NSDQ: STB)–2–2–1 (CAD7.24)
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–9–1–0 (CAD25.06)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–1–2–1 (CAD13.63)
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–3–5–2 (CAD37.25)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–12–7–1 (CAD26.69)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–0–3–5 (CAD7.10)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–2–4–0 (CAD17.60)
• Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–2–3–0 (CAD8.10)
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–19–3–1 (CAD45.74)
• Extendicare Inc (TSX: EXE, OTC: EXETF)–2–2–1 (CAD8.17)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–3–7–0 (CAD7.80)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–9–0–1 (CAD17.82)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–1–0–0 (CAD8.00)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–5–4–0 (CAD19.06)
• PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–11–10–2 (CAD12.24)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–11–5–2 (CAD28.78)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–10–7–1 (CAD56.54)
• Wajax Corp (TSX: WJX, OTC: WJXFF)–3–7–0 (CAD42.44)