Stock Talk – March, 2014

Stock Talk

Edward Getchell

Edward Getchell

We never hear anything these days about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. What is its status, do we care, will it play a role in the Russia/Ukraine flareup, do we need it anymore or is it just another government bureaucracy that won’t go away, etc.?

Thanks for all your hard work and guidance.

Ed Getchell

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

The biggest issue with the SPR is that because oil imports have fallen, it has effectively “gotten bigger” as it now covers more days of imports.

But ironically, a new article from Steve Levine argues that we should flood the market with oil from the SPR to punish Putin. The downside of that is that it would decimate our domestic oil companies temporarily.

Michael Messinger

Robert A Giunco

Do ExxonMobil shareholders have anything to worry about with respect to the turmoil in Ukraine? Obviously BP has properties in Russia but I am not sure about ExxonMobil. Thank you.

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

ExxonMobil does have assets there, but they are not as exposed as BP. I did see a recent article mentioning the risks to both of these companies over the situation in Russia.

Reclar

Reclar

HP has gone over it’s buy price. Any thoughts on increasing it or cause for concern.
Thank you

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Thanks for your interest. We’re still very committed to Helmerich & Payne, which has the best land rig technology and therefore commands premium pricing. I’ll try to review the holding and the target in an upcoming issue.

Walter T

Walter T

Recently you listed SDRL as one of your “Best Buys”. It is really struggling. What is your recommendation for the stock today?

Thanks,

Walt T

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

We’re sticking with it. The fleet is new and mostly booked for next two years, the dividend secure and this would be the wrong time to bail out.

Walter T

Walter T

JONE keeps dropping. I am not one that tends to trade in and out of a stock. But this one is troubling because it is a recent IPO. I have read your responses to other. I just wonder if there are any new assurance you can provide.

Thanks, Walter T.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

It’s always tough to see one’s investment lose value but the earnings report was in-line (production was 3% shy of wall street consensus, i understand); and it’s now trading at a cash flow multiple of 4, with 30% growth from said cash flow. This is a time to consider adding, not selling.

Walter T

Walter T

Thank you Igor for both of your responses. When I wrote I was unaware your commentary would be released this morning.

Walter T>

Mark Hays

Mark Hays

Looking at APU. What will propane prices do in the next 2 years?

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

Mark,

It is always strongly influenced by just how cold the winter is, but I think the long-term trend will be up for the same reasons I think natural gas will trade higher. Propane exports are expanding, and that makes the domestic market tighter and more susceptible to unusually cold winters as we saw this year.

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’d only add that APU’s margins have been very resilient to changes in the commodity price of propane over the years. They have decent retail pricing power.

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