Stock Talk – January, 2014

Stock Talk

Mark Hays

Mark Hays

Have you determined the best way to play the Kurdistan oil situation? In your opinion, does it make sense to invest in Kurdistan Oil? I was looking at the following stocks: Genel Energy, Gulf Keystone and Oryx Petroleum.

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

Mark, my personal style is to avoid companies that introduce extra geopolitical and/or currency risks into the mix. Further, if they trade on foreign exchanges, the financials aren’t always as transparent. High risk, but potentially high reward. Just depends on your style. Of those you mention, I would favor Genel Energy as the most solid of the three.

Kent

Kent

Re: The three portfolios

Robert – In the Industry column of the portfolios, what is the difference between “Pipelines” and “Midstream”?

Many thanks,
Kent

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

There’s no fundamental difference, though, as I look at it, the two picks described as “Midstream” are more involved in “Gathering & Processing” like TRGP than in long-haul transport like the other “pipeline” plays we recommend. But EQM, for example, does gathering as well as interstate transport, just like WMB. I’d treat these designations as interchangeable.

Byron Redburn

Byron Redburn

I see BP and others in Alaska advertising they are going to be drilling over 200 wells in the “near” future. How realistic is that? Alaska would be producing sour crude, yes? for US refineries. If so, how soon can big oil start pushing more oil down the pipeline, in your view? Or is it just rhetoric for the voters in Alaska?
Thank you
Byron

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

Yes, Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude is sour.

There is a lot of competition for drilling rigs, so how soon they can drill 200 wells is debatable. But, with the change in the law in Alaska, I know companies will be allocating more money to developing oil in Alaska. I think the politicians are overly optimistic about what these changes will deliver. My expectation is that the decline in crude oil production in Alaska may slow, but I don’t see the decline reversing direction. We won’t really have a good idea of the impact for 3 to 5 years when a lot of these new projects would begin to pay off.

Look at the evolution of oil production in the US as the fracking revolution took hold. The production decline slowed, flattened, and then reversed direction over a period of several years. The situation in Alaska won’t be as dramatic, but it will take several years to determine the impact of the change in the law.

Mark Roeser

Mark Roeser

What information do you have on SDR? I owed it for a while and received some good dividends and was realizing some good growth in share price and then they tanked from 15 to where they are now. I got out with only a 1,000 dollar loss. I have read about the stock and it appears that the companies problem is mis-management. Are you all following this company and do you have anything to report about it or have you in the near past. I am a new customer and when I search the site I am not finding any comments on this company. Thanks guys. I enjoyed to live event yesterday. Good job.

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

Mark, we inherited some Sandridge companies when I took over here, but we dumped them because we were very unhappy with management. If you look at the March 11, 2013 issue of The Energy Strategist, we have an analysis in “Is Sandridge Just Another Fossil?”

Since Tom Ward has been dumped — with a platinum parachute despite the horrible performance investors had to suffer under his management — there is reason to hope that they might pull themselves together, but he didn’t leave the Sandridge companies in good shape financially. We try to stay away from investments with baggage, and this one will have baggage for a while.

Mark Hays

Mark Hays

I ‘m thinking about selling my KMP and KMI and rolling the money over to Targa Resources and Devon Energy. What are your thiughts?

Robert Rapier

Robert Rapier

Mark, Targa Resources is one of our Best Buys, and Devon is a Buy as well. I own Devon myself, as I think it has been undervalued for a long time, and it’s bound to make a move up as the company appears to be making the right moves. But it may take a few quarters for investors to recognize that Devon has turned a corner. So if I had to bet, I would bet you will be ahead a year from now if you made those moves.

J W

J W

to egor:
dear egor
on the energy chats could you please spell out the company names at least once in each post before using the stock symbol. as i’ve gotten older my memory ain’t what it use to be.

jw

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Thanks for your suggestion, will do.

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