Stock Talk – March, 2017

Stock Talk

Paul Mclaughlin

Paul Mclaughlin

Wanted to invest in Traveling Spoon but Once I click the link to go to SeedInvest I cannot find the ‘invest’ option nor is Traveling Spoon in the Browse Start-Ups

PDAM

PDAM

Jim,
yesterday on the internet came out an information as follows: are option traders betting on a big move in Himax? Because the March 24/2017 $ 4.50 put had some of the highest implied volatility of all equity options today!
What’s your view or opinion on this information, a move upwards or downwards?
Thanks for your update!

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

HIMX has been the subject of several large options trades over the past few months, none of which have panned out thus far so I wouldn’t read too much into this one. Options are a zero-sum game and are often used in tandem with equity trades as insurance so it is impossible to know what the motivation is for this particular contract. Presumably, the sellers of that put contract are expecting it to expire worthless while the buyers aren’t going to make any money off of it unless the share price for HIMX drops below $4.50 within the next two weeks. HIMX is up 50% over the past month and gained another 2% today so it’s hard to say why someone might think those put options are likely to pay off with so little time remaining.

Todd Steffen

Todd Steffen

Jim – I’ve been watching AMD for a while and am new to this service. Has it been considered or researched? It seems to have broad market support at this point.

Thanks – Todd

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

I have considered AMD, and recommended it a couple of years ago in one of our other services, Breakthrough Tech Profits (nee Smart Tech Investor). Since then it has shot up in value, which is great for investors that bought it then but at this point it appears overvalued to me, and only makes sense if it is acquired later this year. If not, then its share price could fall back to is intermediate-term support level near $10.

Jay Hall

Jay Hall

Jim,
I signed up for Breakthrough Tech Profits and now I am seeing Systematic Wealth and I don’t know which one might be the best match for someone that is interested in growing his trading account with an strong focus on options. If you had to chose one over the other which would you chose and why?

Thanks, Jay

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Jay. BTP is not intended as a trading service, even though we have booked some very nice short-term gains during the past year so I don’t know if it is exactly what you are looking for. SW is intended as a trading service, but it does not recommend specific option contracts (however, several SW subs share their specific options strategies on the website so you can look at those if you aren’t sure how to execute our advice). For those reasons, I suggest you also consider Velocity Trader, which is both a trading service and is built entirely around options: https://www.investingdaily.com/velocity-trader/. Thank you.

Maria R

Maria R

Hi Jim:
I am not sure what you mean by a trading service. It is meant for fast turn around for traders and BTP is for investors?
Thank you for your patience.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Yes. The stocks recommended in BTP are intended for longer-term holding periods, while the stocks and options trades recommended by SW, VT and OFI are intended for relatively short holding periods.

Derek: Las Vegas, NV

Derek: Las Vegas, NV

Jay, also check out Options for Income.

Options for Income is a conservative put credit spreads service and Velocity Trader is a aggressive call debit spread service. I’m a member of both and would recommend either one.

Derek

Maria R

Maria R

Hi Jay, I agree with Derek, OFI and VT are very good.

PDAM

PDAM

Dear Jim, on Feb/23 you mentioned that HIMX would trade probably between 6.50-7.50. Now we are over 8.00! What’s your view and recomendation how to handle/act with HIMX? Holding it until …….? Thanks for your explanation!

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

It appears somebody is accumulating a large position in HIMX, most likely a mutual fund or another type of institutional investor. If so, then once that position is filled the stock will most likely flatten out until the next quarterly earnings report comes out in May. HIMX is currently above my buy limit of $7.50, so at this point I only recommend buying on dips below that level. But until hits my target price I will continue to hold it.

Mark M

Mark

Hi Jim,
Am I reading your open trades chart wrong? For HIMX it’s showing a buy limit of under 15, and above you are stating 7.50 buy limit? Can you please clarify for me so i don’t read your “open trades” chart wrong? Thank you.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

You’re not reading that wrong, but the table is in error as $15 is our target price and not the buy limit. I’ll correct it. Sorry for the confusion.

M

Med

Is it the same for IMMR : 12$ is the target & not buy limit ? Thx..!

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

No, in this case $12 is the buy limit for IMMR. When we first recommended it last year it was above $10 and has since pulled back but we still think it could be a $20 stock within two years.

Sheree Yang

Sheree Yang

ARGS has dropped so much, now you are removing it from your list. Does that mean it’s time to dump?
I’ve lost so much money on it. Can you continue to give us status for those who want to hold it for a chance for recovery?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Yes, I will continue to follow ARGS even though it will no longer be held in the BTP portfolio. The company still possesses some intellectual property that it could sell, and it’s still possible that the ADAPT trial could be resumed if the cause of the failure can be rectified.

M

Med

Jim, Your opinion on argos gven the latest news..?
ARGS: +81.5%; To continue ADAPT trial despite IDMC recommendation to discontinue study;
they will meet FDA in May..

Thx

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

ARGS has now become a high-stakes bet on the outcome of that meeting with the FDA next month. Depending on the outcome of that meeting, the stock could either double or drop in half immediately. My take on the press release this week is that the company disagrees with the way the IDMC interpreted the trial data and is making a case for a more nuanced interpretation. I don’t know how valid their alternative interpretation is from a medical perspective, but if it turns out to be correct then this may be an opportune time to buy the stock.

PDAM

PDAM

Dear Jim, HIMX is now at aprox 9.28 and you recomend to hold on until it reaches your targetprice 15.00 in the 2nd half of this year in one of your recent comments.
What do you foresee how HIMX will go from the now US$ 9.28 to your targetprice 15.00 ??
My main question/worry is: could we get another bog downtrend befor it goes up more? what’s your opinion on this?
Thanks for your reply and explanation,
best regards, PDAM

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

The big date for HIMX will be during the week of May 10th when it releases its next quarterly earnings report and forward guidance. Until then I don’t see why its share price might take a big drop, but of course that’s always possible with a small-cap tech stock. One way to protect most of your gain is to place a stop order a little below its current price, which would only be executed if HIMX trades at or below that price.

John B

John B

Jim where can I see your updated targets for the three little gems?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Igor Greenwald is taking over portfolio management duties for BTP, so he and I are currently reviewing all of its holdings and will be making some revisions to them later this week so please be on the lookout for that alert. Thank you.

PDAM

PDAM

Jim, 6% down now at back to US$ 8.73. Any explaation for this pullback?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

HIMX had a big run up over the past couple of months, so a pullback is not surprising. I have seen no new information over the past couple of days to explain this week’s price behavior (other than this generally positive article from Barron’s: http://finance.yahoo.com/m/087a04f1-3e90-3137-b039-3d581fc589f7/himax%3A-3d-sensing-supplier-to.html). HIMX is a particularly volatile stock, so don’t read too much into its short term ups and downs.

PDAM

PDAM

Dear Jim: HIMX now at US$ 8.29!! What is your opinion now on HIMX and what do you recommend to do with it?

PDAM

PDAM

Jim: well your previous words are correct that this stock can drive you crazy, down to 7.98 and now again at 8.37. If it is possible for you then please give us some feedback or opinion what’s going on and what can we expect in the coming weeks with HIMX?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

I have no idea how the stock might trade over the next few weeks, but as we get closer to its next quarterly earnings report due out the second week of May its trading range should tighten up. We recommended HIMX on the belief that it is a likely takeover target later this year, so the short term trading in it does not influence our reason for buying it.

PDAM

PDAM

Dear Jim, today HIMX came out with a PR-note with a strategic investment in EMZA Visual sense.
Further there is an information on internet that macquarie/thefly.com/aussi investment bank gives an outperform for himx with a target of $40 ???
Any sugestion from you on these comments/information? Or any changes in your target price of $15 for himx?

PDAM

PDAM

Jim: HIMX ended today at $ 8.00 !!! What now???

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

I’m not Jim but I can tell you that it’s now at 7.66 and that no one can know future share prices, or the reasons they move the way they do on most days. Himax is a longer-term bet and if something happens important enough to change our outlook on the stock we’ll be sure to let you know, promise. I’ll also volunteer that while looking at share prices daily is an occupational hazard I can’t avoid, it’s a good idea for almost everyone to not look for as long as possible. Frequent quotes will not improve your decision making; in fact they’ll hinder it. Please check out this excellent book for more: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ref=reader_auth_dp

PDAM

PDAM

Igor: Well we are back down now to 7.50, it’s always afterwards talking but a sell advise on HIMX would have been correct when it was above 9.00!

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

Yes, the same way it would have been correct before any decline, I suppose

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