A Call on Mylan

Buy to open the January 20, 2017 call on Mylan (MYL) with a strike price of $45 at $1.90 or lower. Symbol (MYL170120C45)

This is a longer term trade based on Mylan’s current valuation. While we may close the position well before the January 2017 expiration, it is not tied to any particular event and does not require immediate action.

Mylan has been battered, properly, over outrage regarding price increases of its EpiPen product. Our analysis shows that EpiPen price increases accounted for just $.17 of Mylan’s $4.30 in earnings last year. The stock trades at 7 times 2017 estimates versus a peer group average of 14. Mylan should grow earnings 16% this year and next.

Mylan has a valuable portfolio of products that are not dependent on price increases for profit improvement. Currently plans are being floated which would move EpiPen to a federal list of preventive medical services, a move that would eliminate the out-of-pocket costs of the product for millions of families. Drugs currently on this list are paid for entirely by the Federal government or insurers which would allow Mylan to reap the higher price while eliminating the burden for patients.


Regardless of the approval of this plan, I expect the focus on Mylan’s stock over the next four months to shift towards its growth prospects and away from Epi-pen pricing.

Stock Talk

Jon D.

Jon D.

Hi Linda,
Thanks for an exciting new opportunity!
I am in at $1.82
Wishing you a good weekend

Ivan

Ivan

Thanks Linda
Me too for 1.82

Melody Pfingsten

Melody Pfingsten

The texting is a much better format.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Excellent! Thanks for the follow up. I’m happy to hear it’s working.
Linda

Melody Pfingsten

Melody Pfingsten

What is Patrick industry. Seems it is a pick today but I received no alert nor do I see it on website. I see it added to the portfolio today.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Melody,
PATK is a supplier to the RV industry, similar to Drew Industries (NYSE: DW) that is in the portfolio. GMS is the other new name that has been added. It is a supplier to the housing industry. Both buy alerts should be coming out soon, I think the portfolio update was faster than the alert.
Best,
Linda

Jon D.

Jon D.

MYL is looking good today Keep waiting??

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Jon,
Yes I suggest holding on. Certainly there will be some bumps up and down so some may choose to trade around this one but I’m keeping the position until we see the stock move higher. Outside of political events, the next official news event for MYL is a late October earnings release.
Best,
Linda

Jon D.

Jon D.

Thanks Linda,
Thats up a lot in one day. Not to say more another day is even better!

black arrow

black arrow

Happy New Year Linda, Here we are in January and I noticed the MYL Jan call suddenly went up a bit, of course I look forward to MYL rising more; no doubt you do as well. Any recent developments you know of which may give us the boost in price we wish for?

Thanks

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

It’s been a long wait for MYL to come around but I’m thrilled it’s finally showing some life. The company announced three new drug approvals in the last few days. The most significant is a generic Concerta. The branded sales for this drug were about $1.6 billion last year. Most importantly it show the company is not entirely dependent on its EpiPen business for growth. I think the drug group will see a big bounce next year. NVS, where we also own calls (purchased at a better pivot point), has begun to rally as well.
Happy New Year!
Linda

black arrow

black arrow

it seems like a long wh ile ago I got in MYL. This may seem like a dumb question but – I bt at 1.82 in September so should I be looking for a price higher than that? Yes it is a dumb question – sorry of course or else I would just lose.

I did not notice NVS I guess is it stll a good time to enter a position in Novartis if price is close? No rush after all mkt is closed on Monday.
Cheers and thanks for the reply

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

The price on the MYL calls dropped so quickly it made sense to wait it out and see if the stock rallied. The stock needs to be above $45 for us to make out profitable on this trade but there are still almost three weeks until expiration. The January NVS calls that I purchased are already in the money. You might think about buying some with a higher strike price. I am working on more pharma calls as I think this group is very oversold.
Best,
Linda

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