I am unable to place the LNN trade on Fidelity. I get this error both in ATP and the website:

Error:(125603) The limit price entered is too far above the last trade price for this option security. Please use the following guidelines when entering a buy limit price above the last trade price : If the last trade price is less than $3, the limit price can be no more than a $1 above the last trade price; If the last trade price is $3 or greater, the limit price can be no more than $3 above the last trade price.

At 8:56am CST, the entry price for all three recommendations have already surpassed. Waiting to drop to get in

Fidelity only allowing 10 cent increments on LNN. Do other brokers do this? So annoying! Either do 3.40 or 3.30, which do I choose? Decisions, decisions! It would probably fill at 3.40 right away.

What’s up with SYX???????

Just curious over all… was there a news or something? Whole market is bleeding and so am i 🙁

Lindsay Corporation put is now at 3.80. Is the rule to drop this trade or do we have a percentage rule we can deviate from Lindas recommended limit price? My impression is that we do not increase the limit order and instead wait. But we cannot wait very long for this trade.

TITN filled at $2. Only one of these 3 to fill so far.

I increase the limit by .05 on all three.

ACGO filled at $2.05 @ 11am today

Linda,

Do you work PCA like Jim does OFI/VT in that if one person reports a fill at your price (or close) then into the portfolio it goes?

Lisa

A quick update on Lindsay Corp (NYSE: LNN)

LNN beat earnings estimates by 15% but beat revenue by only $2 million or 1%. The company had a much larger than expected restructuring charge, which makes me suspicious that perhaps some costs were re-allocated or re-categorized to this “one-time” expense bucket.

Infrastructure sales were stronger than expected, due to the delivery of two large orders that had been sitting in backlog. Infrastructure orders include the zipper system barriers that you see during major road projects. These are very profitable sales so it’s possible this was the reason for the earnings beat.

The real key to how the stock moves is future guidance. If this quarter’s beat is subtracted from the rest of the year, that won’t help the bull case.

Management should quantify guidance and certainly provide a current backlog number on its 11 AM conference call.

Backlog was $90.2 million in the prior quarter. I would consider it bearish if this number drops significantly, which would imply new infrastructure orders are drying up and future earnings may be weaker due to the pulling forward of these profitable projects.

Irrigation sales and profits were lackluster, as expected.

I will post an update after the conference call. The stock is flat in pre-market trading.

Final scorecard as follows:

AGCO filled at $2.05
LNN at $3.30
I only got 1/2 my order of TITN at $2. Midpoint is now at 2.60. I suspect it won’t fill but since it is not until September I will leave it open for a while longer.

LNN aug $95 P midpoint is 2.90. Is it still ok to buy?

AGCO filled @ $2.0 on TASTY

AGCO filled @ $2.00 TOS

AGCO filled @ 1.90

I canceled my order at the close of wed (original rec. stated to fill by wed) and I see everyone is filling after that.

Where’s the update promised after post-conference call that happened yesterday. The stock is rising and the option is now $2.20-$2.30 – which is great if the stock falls in the future.

Hello all,
I have spent some time analyzing LNN’s historic backlog trends, which took a bit longer than expected. What I wanted to pull out is quantifying orders booked in the quarter versus new orders added to the backlog.
New orders dropped 15% this quarter, the largest decline in at least two years. This is particularly concerning as the May quarter is LNN’s largest quarter of the year for orders being added to the backlog.
My interpretation from the conference call is that management is giving a soft guide down on earnings due to the earlier than expected booking of some infrastructure revenue.
I do think the August 95 puts are a good buy at this level.
Best,
Linda

So what’s happening with SYX and LNN?
Buy? Hold? Sell?

I feel like i am in the teilightt zone here. Since the LNN put recommendation has been made the stock is up several points and the option is down about 50%. No real ananysis or guidance from Linda as to why that is or how to manage the trade – execpt a few minutes ago when she said the puts are a good buy “at this level”. The problem is “at this level” is approx 50% below the original recommended trade so we still have no information about how to manage the original recommendation.
i realize options are volatile and that losses are inevitable and etc. It’s just that specific information seems to be lacking on the LNN rade

Linda: Thanks for your reply and additional information. I understand why options go up and down and that they are volatile. No one expects (or at least no one should expect) perfect timing, although it probably appears that way at times.
My concern was that your July 2 analysis made no mention of the fact that the options were down by a material % and/or that you expected the underlying to decline prior to expiration. The conclusion on July 2 was that the trade was still a “good buy” at these levels, but these levels were signifiantly different than when the trade was first recommended…so i was hoping for analysis that applied to the original trade, which you so kindly provided this morning and which i appreciate. Thanks. Frank

AGCO price cut to 60 from 68 by JP Morgan

TITN has not filled. Is at 2.60 – any new guidance? thanks

Wallace,
Sorry for the delay. Your post got lost in the mix. I suggest passing and waiting for the next trade. The option is up quite a bit from the buy level suggested. There will be more ideas coming.
Best,
Linda

Linda,

Trump just announced 12 billion in farm aid. Thoughts on if that will affect our positions ?

Phil

Phil,
This is a psychological positive for the farm/ag group but after reading reactions from farmers who are worried about the long-term plan for their businesses with tariffs in place. This aid will help keep them in business but I think most will still be hesitant to invest in new equipment. AGCO reports on July 31st and TITN on August 30th. Both puts will still be active at that time. However, I will be watching closely to make sure they don’t move against us too much.
Best,
Linda

Linda,

Thank you for the response. My thought process went to the numbers. China purchased 14 billion in soybeans last year. That doesn’t even cover other crops they purchase. While it will help the farmers temporarily, it is just that. They’re smart enough to know that unless the tariff war ends they better save their pennies. I actually increased my AGCO put position during the temporary upswing in the stock. Calm heads prevail.

Thanks again Linda

Phil

Hey Linda,

AGCO is showing nice profit. Should we bank it, What are your thoughts? Do you think the stock price has potential to drop further low?

Thanks.

DJ,
I’ve been watching this one closely. The stock was downgraded to neutral by JPMorgan this week. This is a pretty negative downgrade so I’m hoping it will continue to droop. That said, each subscriber has their own risk tolerance and I never disagree with booking a profit.
Best,
Linda

Hi Linda, Ozark Bob here. We sat together at the Alexandra conference. I bought the CC call and have been watching CC tank. Are you still optimistic short and long term? They’ve had such good results that this slide doesn’t make sense to me. I just bought a lower call (44) position for January. Your thoughts on the company, please.

Linda,

Do you think management’s presentation on Thursday at the Laguna conference will provide any insight?

Phil

Hi Linda

AGCO Put is 50% loss right now. Entered at $2.09 and current price is $1.00 – Did i miss something?

Linda,

Thank you for the detailed response.

Phil

Happy Reading

INSIGHT-Trump trade war delivers farm boom in Brazil, gloom in Iowa
BY Reuters
— 12:59 AM ET 10/11/2018

By Jake Spring and Tom Polansek

LUÍS EDUARDO, Brazil/BOONE, Iowa, Oct 11 (Reuters) – The Bella Vita luxury condominium tower rises 20 stories over the boomtown of Luís Eduardo Magalhães in northeastern Brazil. Its private movie theater and helipad are symbols of how far this dusty farming community has come since it was founded just 18 years ago.

Local soybean producers shell out upwards of a half-million U.S. dollars to live in the complex. Nearby farm equipment sellers, car dealerships and construction supply stores are bustling too.

Meanwhile, nearly 5,000 miles to the north in Boone, Iowa, farmers are hunkering down. At a recent agriculture trade show here, Iowa corn and soybean grower Steve Sheppard reflected the cautious mood.

“I’m not buying any machinery, I’m not spending any money,” Sheppard said.

Two countries. Same business. Two very different fates. The reason: China.

A growing trade war between the United States and China is re-ordering the global grains business. In response to Trump administration tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing this year imposed levies on U.S. agricultural products. Among them was a 25 percent tariff on soybeans, the single most valuable U.S. farm export. U.S. growers sold $12 billion worth to China last year alone.

The fallout has been quick. China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans, has scaled back purchases of U.S. grain to feed its massive hog herd.

It is turning instead to Brazil, which has ridden the wave of Chinese demand for two decades to become a global agricultural powerhouse. Brazilian soybean exports to the Asian country jumped 22 percent by value between January and September, compared to the same period a year ago.

Brazilian producers are not only selling more grain, their soy is fetching $2.83 more per bushel than beans from the United States, up from a premium of just $0.60 a year ago, thanks to stepped up Chinese purchases.

Prices for U.S. soybeans, meanwhile, recently sunk to decade lows that farmers say are below the cost of production. The slump has made the agricultural sector a drag on an otherwise healthy U.S. economy. The Trump administration said in July it would spend up to $12 billion in taxpayer funds to help U.S. farmers offset trade-related losses, although the aid package could shrink.

Many American farmers, overwhelmingly conservative voters who helped propel Donald Trump to the presidency, are standing by their man. They believe he will eventually negotiate a better trade deal with China, whose appetite for soybeans is so vast that it cannot completely wean itself off U.S. grain.

But for the time being, Trump trade policies are handing precious market share, money and momentum to Brazil, the United States’ most formidable agricultural competitor. Some fear the lost ground will be hard to reclaim.

“Bad news on tariffs in the U.S. is good news for them,” Robert Crain, general manager for the Americas for equipment dealer AGCO Corp ( AGCO ), said about Brazilian farmers in an interview at the Iowa show.

BOON TO BRAZIL

Like their U.S. counterparts, Brazil’s farmers produce much more grain than is needed at home. Foreign customers are responsible for the country’s agricultural boom. Nearly 80 percent of Brazil’s soy exports now head to China.

The city of Luís Eduardo Magalhães is a testament to the importance of this international trade. Located in the state of Bahia, with farms stretching in every direction, the formerly unincorporated rural area in less than two decades has swelled to 85,000 people. That is bigger than Sioux City, Iowa’s fourth-largest city. Major employers in Luís Eduardo, as most locals call the city, include fertilizer factories, seed producers and processors of soy and cotton. The area “relies 100 percent on agriculture,” said Carminha Maria Missio, a farmer and president of the local growers union.

While Brazil’s overall economy is stuck in a ditch, the nation’s farm sector rolled to 13 percent growth last year. The John Deere ( DE
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) dealership in Luís Eduardo saw its sales rise 15 percent in 2017 and is expecting double-digit growth again this year, managing partner Chico Flores Oliveira said.

The local real estate market is surging too. Another new luxury condo tower is slated to open next year. Single-family homes are sprouting throughout the city. Prices for prime farmland are up 37 percent since 2012, according to consultancy Informa Economics IEG FNP.

Brazil’s total soy area is expected to expand to a record 36.28 million hectares this season due to robust Chinese demand, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.

Farmers here also are bullish on this month’s presidential election in Brazil. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who is leading in the polls, favors rolling back fines for farmers who deforest illegally or break other environmental laws. Like Trump, Bolsonaro, is wary of China. But producers here trust him not to blow it on trade.

“Rural producers support Bolsonaro emphatically,” said Congresswoman Tereza Cristina, head of the powerful agriculture voting bloc in Brazil’s Congress. “We have access to him…and I am certain that he is smart and sensible.”

U.S. FARM BELT PINCHED

The outlook is much gloomier in Iowa, the long-established heart of U.S. agriculture.

It is the nation’s top corn-producing state and the No. 2 producer of soybeans. But its access to some global markets has suffered under Trump.

The president walked away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement that would have opened valuable markets such as Japan to more American ag products. His renegotiation of the NAFTA accord had Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. corn, exploring other suppliers, including Brazil. Now the Chinese are pulling back.

Boone lays smack in the state’s center, surrounded by miles of row crops, hogs and poultry. Farmland values here fell 12 percent from 2012 to 2017, according to Iowa State University. Worries about the U.S.-China trade war loomed over the recent Farm Progress show, which comes to town every other year.

Equipment dealer Lee Randall jotted down prices at an auction of used tractors and implements at the show. Prices have dropped on trade tensions and low crop prices, he said, shaking his head as a green and yellow Deere & Co ( DE
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) combine sold for $118,000 and another fetched $82,000.

“Five years ago you could have added 30 percent to every one of these pieces,” said Randall, whose business, Randall Brothers, is based in Ohio.

Nearby, Brett Begemann, chief operating officer for Bayer Crop Science said farmers were likewise scrutinizing purchases of seeds and chemicals. The trade dispute is making it difficult for Bayer to predict 2019 earnings for its agriculture unit.

A two-hour drive north of Boone in Algona, Iowa, a town of about 5,500 people, farm doldrums are crimping business at the local Deere and Harley-Davidson Inc ( HOG
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) dealerships, the operators said.

“Ultimately this area lives and dies by the farmer,” said Jim Wilcox, an owner of the Harley store.

Farmers’ woes are showing up on bank balance sheets as well. The proportion of the region’s agricultural loans reported as having repayment problems was up in the second quarter, reaching mid-year levels not seen since 2002, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Rodney Jensen, who farms near Algona, regrets not making deals to sell soybeans from his autumn harvest when prices were higher. Like many, he is storing his crop, waiting for better times.

He worries China will not buy as much U.S. soy as it used to, even if the two nations patch things up.

“It’s been pretty pessimistic around here,” Jensen said.

(Reporting by Jake Spring in Luis Eduardo Magalhães and Tom Polansek in Boone, Iowa; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Marla Dickerson)

Thanks for posting….gives me a few new ideas to work on. The AGCO puts are still underwater but have until November.
I’m looking for more U.S.-centric shorts to add.
Best,
Linda

Linda,

Following up on my previous “rant” I purchased the AGCO 55 put at a $2.00 average across several accounts. When the price swung in the opposite direction I purchased the AGCO 60 puts (equal amount) for $3.50 average. I am well in positive territory. Also paid extra for the AGN 190 puts. Needless to say …

Phil