Portfolio Report Card
Earnings season is a hectic time. As an analyst, I juggle plugging numbers into the quarterly earnings models I keep for every one of our stocks and scrutinizing the companies’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission while listening to conference calls. Stocks typically make their most dramatic moves during earnings season, and the second quarter proved no exception.
This season was particularly frustrating, as some terrific numbers did not inspire the big jumps in price I expected. I attribute this to nervous institutional investors, many of whom are in charge of portfolios that have below average returns. With interest rates on the cusp of moving higher and a contentious election underway, I expect more market volatility.
But as I explained in my first earnings report card last May, I grade each company objectively and quantitatively, giving me a hard-and-fast data point to guide my targets for and opinions about each stock. After reviewing the latest report card for Profit Catalyst stocks, I am pleased with the growth for each one.
The second quarter this year was a decent one for the Profit Catalyst Alert portfolio. All but two holdings earned a B or better, with two of our favorites, Criteo and Drew Industries, getting an A- for beating estimates by double-digit percentages and raising numbers. (Earning a straight A is a Herculean task requiring at least a 20% earnings beat, a revenue beat and an increase in future estimates.)
Both companies soundly beat estimates, Criteo by 18% and Drew by 16%. Investors, however, gave Drew’s earnings a warmer reception because of management’s incredibly bullish commentary on the RV market. Criteo’s number was equally impressive, but guidance was not increased dramatically for the second half of the year.
Air Transport Group, Charles River Labs and Lydall all earned a B+. Each one of these companies should enjoy good momentum for the rest of 2016 and into next year. Air Transport Group, which has been investing in new planes for Amazon’s lease agreement, will start to enjoy higher profits once these planes are in the air. The CEO of Charles River Labs, who recently spoke at several brokerage conferences, called its WIL Research acquisition “by far the best deal” the company has ever done and noted the growth potential from all the new customers brought on board. Meanwhile, Lydall can look forward to gains in profitability from its recent purchase of geosynthetics company Texel. It makes synthetic products used to stabilize terrain.
SolarEdge and Vera Bradley both earned a solid B, a huge feat considering the headwinds these companies face in their respective industries. SolarEdge, the largest loss in the portfolio, continues to deliver fabulous earnings and generate oodles of cash. However, it is caught in an industry down draft of negative news, so we are selling it, reluctantly. Vera Bradley was able to grow its profit margins with a better product mix and should see revenue accelerate into the holiday season with its new marketing campaign.
Brunswick earned a B- only because its earnings beat was quite small. The company continues to diversify its business away from the most cyclical boat revenue. Another B- performer, Masonite officially beat earnings by 14 cents per share, but after backing out a 20-cent gain from lower taxes, I must dock the company for missing estimates. Still, the miss was due to investments in advanced manufacturing processes for faster door delivery, a capability that should boost earnings in future quarters.
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