A Trifecta of Good Reports
The market is behaving oddly calm after a presidential upset that nary a pollster had predicted. In a perverse way, the fact that Trump has shared few details regarding his economic plans gives the market more time to digest the election surprise. Unlike most newly elected presidents, it appears that Trump will not enter office with a firm plan in place.
The presidential choice was not the only surprise from election night. Many predicted a democratic shift in the Senate, which did not occur. A republican sweep was not on the radar. With republicans in the majority, it is likely legislation will begin to move along versus the gridlock experienced over the past four years. This easier path to legislation plus the lack of detail regarding Trump’s proposals will keep the markets jumpy over the next 12-24 months.
As I predicted last week drug stocks are seeing huge gains today as fears of pricing regulations fade away with the Clinton loss. We have some calls on Mylan, purchased some time ago, and are analyzing which drug stocks offer the most value at this level. I still see heightened pricing pressure and possible regulatory risk in the sector so I’ll be leaning towards option trades to limit absolute dollars at risk.
Sitting tight is usually the best strategy when chaos controls the market. I’m making sure I have my buy list ready for stocks that may get sold off and my sell stops in place for those that gap up and offer great exit points.
A couple updates on holdings:
Air Transport Services Group (NSDQ: ATSG) finally broke out of its holding pattern when it reported earnings on November 3. Revenue of $193 million rose 36% and beat estimates by $10 million. Earnings of $.14 were up 40% and in line with expectations. Demand for its perfect for package delivery sized planes remains strong. Amazon will take on another five 767-300 planes in early 2017 with a second customer coming in with a new order for five 767-300’s to be delivered in the second half of 2017. Earnings have been slightly depressed due to a pilot shortage which has resulted in above normal pay rates. Air Transport management sees that incremental expense diminishing in 2017 with newly recruited pilots coming on board.
Camping World (NYSE: CWH) reported its first quarter as a public company. Earnings leapt 18% as the retailer of new and used RVs saw a boom in lower priced trailers to first-time, younger buyers. This demographic is bringing a whole new wave of demand to RV manufacturers. Sales of roadside assistance and service plans, which generate significantly higher profits than RVs, rose 11%. Product profit margins rose from 27% to 28% due to improved profits on service plans and higher insurance sales. The company paid of $200 million of debt with proceeds from its IPO, which inspired credit upgrades from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s and will reduce interest in future quarters.
Masonite (NYSE: DOOR) slammed the door on bears when it reported its third quarter earnings on November 9. Subscribers may remember the stock dropped hard in August when increased investments in its manufacturing facility caused the company to miss estimates. Those investments have already begun to pay off with profits rising 43% to $.89 and beating estimates by $.18. The stock jumped 10% on the news and is now up 16% since its recent low. I expect Masonite to continue to climb higher as profits expand from more profitable doors and increased volume from home builds and remodels.
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