Earnings Season Home Runs
The World Series for stocks comes four times a year because there are four earnings seasons. And the fourth-quarter earnings season carries a bit more weight than quarters one through three as that is when most companies provide their outlook for the coming year.
Because stocks are mainly valued on a fiscal year’s earnings, guidance for 2017 plays a critical role in the direction stocks take.
This earnings season has been incredibly busy for Profit Catalyst Alert. With the stock market racing upward, I chose to sell three of our most profitable positions. Boat maker Brunswick, which had been in the portfolio for just over one year, gave us a 45% gain. Camping World and Patrick Industries, both players in the RV market, gained 45% and 41%, respectively, in less than six months.
Readers will note that I have now sold all stocks associated with the RV market. LCI Industries (previously named Drew Industries) was sold last November for a 38% gain. Although I don’t expect disaster for the RV market, some industry data indicates slowing growth. Most of the stocks in this group are fully priced, and a deceleration in growth will knock them down. Witness Patrick Industries, whose stock dropped 5% last week despite beating numbers. My put recommendation on Winnebago is a bet on this group unwinding. But overall, PCA cashed in on the surge in RV business nicely.
I added four new stocks to the portfolio. Two are drug stocks, ANI Pharmaceuticals and Jazz Pharmaceuticals. While I’ve been feeling like the drug stocks were ripe for a bounce, both companies have a catalyst to spur their share prices higher. For ANI, it’s the filing of a new generic of Acthar, a high-priced steroid, and for Jazz, the catalyst is expanded indications for its narcolepsy drug. Both stocks are up slightly since I added them, but I expect them to go much higher.
I also recently added Chemours Co. and Ichor Systems, both special situation stocks. Chemours makes a specialty coolant that doesn’t exacerbate global warming. The coolant is used to supplant traditional hydrofluorocarbons, whose use is mandated to be reduced. Ichor is an initial public offering that gives investors a great way to play the development of new 3D NAND and 7 nanometer chips that Intel and Micron are developing. Long-time subscribers know I’m always scouring the newborn IPO market for yet-to-be recognized values.
Our option trades either delivered a bang out of the gate or wilted. I offered subscribers an option choice on both Chemours Co. and Jazz Pharmaceuticals when I first recommended them. I will continue to do that when appropriate. Some stocks do not trade options, and others do not trade ones liquid enough to allow for good entry points. Both trades did extraordinarily well. Two days after my recommendation, Chemours announced a favorable legal settlement that spiked the stock, and the calls were sold for a 115% gain. The Jazz calls gained 67% in less than a week.
The PayPal call closed in the money but at a lower price than it was bought, and the Caterpillar puts expired worthless. The Caterpillar trade was an especially bitter pill as the company gave poor guidance but the bull market lifted it higher. The Post Holdings put was sold at a slight loss. Put options on Winnebago and call options on H&E Equipment are still in the portfolio.
I will continue to alert you to important conference calls for our stocks. Almost every public company holds a quarterly conference call, but not all are expected to generate exciting plays. I will continue to pick and choose those most relevant to our portfolio. Sometimes, it will be a call of a customer or competitor; for example, the Patrick Industries call was suggested to see how Winnebago’s business might be doing.
To new subscribers, welcome aboard, and to those loyal fans, thank you for your continued support. As always please post any questions or comments on the Stock Talk board, and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
This spring, please consider joining me at the Investing Daily Wealth Summit held in lovely Alexandria, Virginia, April 6 to 7. Details can be found at https://www2.investingdaily.com/olp-weso-summit.
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