Infrastructure Puts Win Big and Food Trade Looking Good
There’s never a dull moment in this stock market.
After the GOP’s failure to pass the Health Care bill last week, the stock market is losing faith that President Trump will be successful in passing tax and infrastructure bills. I recommended selling the Aecom (NYSE: ACM) and the Jacobs Engineering (NYSE: JEC) puts first thing this morning for gains of 67% and 70% respectively.
Also, I’m getting my buy list ready. I’ve been accumulating a pile of good stocks that I’d like to add to the portfolio but have been hesitant to do so until the market corrects a bit. We may see that opportunity soon so keep your eyes peeled for new buy alerts.
Our bearish trade on the food group is working out well. General Mills (NYSE: GIS) reported a clunker last Tuesday. Although earnings beat estimates by a penny, revenue missed targets and the company warned of increased promotion and sagging demand for its processed foods.
Conagra (NYSE: CAG), who reported later that week, followed a similar script, discussing continued weak demand.
The group was then downgraded to Underperform by Sanford Bernstein. The report is one of the most negative I’ve seen. It lays out a very bearish scenario where a confluence of demographic and industry trends will hurt earnings of food companies for multiple years. Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) was one of the stocks downgraded and we cashed out of our position with a 64% gain.
We still hold the Kroger (NYSE: KR) and McCormick (NYSE: MCK) puts which I expect to sell soon. Kroger management was equally cautious at its investor presentation but was buoyed a bit by an industry report suggesting food deflation had hit its nadir.
U.S. Concrete (NSDQ: USCR) hit us with a clunker late last week. In a creepy move, the company announced a change of its auditors AND the resignation of its CFO via a SEC filing without issuing a press release.
Not issuing a press release with such important news is a red flag. In addition, the CFO’s departure, which was agreed upon on March 24, is effective April 1. This super short transition time is highly unusual for a CFO who just joined the company in February 2016.
While it’s possible this is simply a personality clash, the coincident change of auditors leaves me too queasy to keep this position. We sold U.S. Concrete with a 4% gain.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: JAZZ) had more positive news last week. The company reported results from two large multi-center Phase III trials for its JZP-110, its drug candidate treatment for excessive daytime sleepiness in patients with obstructive sleep apnea.
A Phase III trial, in which a drug’s efficacy must be proven, is the most critical phase of drug development. If all goes according to plan, the company will file a new drug application (NDA) with the FDA in late 2017. Analysts believe this patient population could drive sales to $1 billion for this drug.
As always, I’ll send alerts for any new trades and will post updates with new information on our current positions.
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