Earnings Galore: Air Transport Takes Off and Amazon Hopes Buoy Impinj
Whew! Last week is one of the busiest earnings weeks that I can remember. Profit Catalyst Alert had ELEVEN companies report earnings last week. For some, I’ve already posted comments in Stock Talk but I’ve covered all of them here in this week’s update.
In addition, we sold our Spectrum Brand puts for a nice 42% gain. If any of you still hold them, they were trading at $4.80 at the end of the week, 5.5% higher than where I sold them.
Please forgive the length of this update. I didn’t want to shortchange any of our portfolio holdings as many had really terrific quarters with robust outlooks.
This week we have six more companies reporting. The calendar looks like this:
- Monday May 8: DOOR after the close, call on May 9 before the open
- Tuesday May 9: JAZZ after the close
- Wednesday May 10: VMC and CRL both before the open
- Thursday May 11: SND before the open and ICHR after the close
Here’s the earnings recap:
Oh how I wish all our stocks took flight like Air Transport Services Group (NSDQ:ATSG). The stock rocketed 23% last week on increased demand for its package delivery aircraft.
Revenue and earnings rose 23% and 33% respectively. The company continues to convert passenger airplanes into cargo planes for lease. As the company fulfills its contract with Amazon and brings on more inventory of these highly coveted planes, earnings will continue to rise.
Estimates continue to creep up and my $28 target will likely move closer to $30 as analysts boost their numbers. Despite the stock being up 60% from my recommendation point, I’m keeping it a buy.
ANI Pharma (NSDQ:ANIP) reported a quarter slightly less than expected but is bullish going forward due to new product launches. Most importantly the company gave much more detail regarding its new corticotropin product which it hopes to present to the FDA by year end. This is earlier than anticipated and the company is moving forward quickly to gear up production volumes.
I think the stock is a great buy on the dip. Estimates have been rising since I initiated my $100 target so I feel comfortable that the stock will eventually move higher. I attribute part of the weakness to uncertainty over the Healthcare bill and pressure on generic pricing. Although ANIP gets three-quarters of its revenue via generic drugs, it has seen little price erosion due to exclusive supply agreements for hard to find raw materials. The primary driver for ANI Pharma’s 100% growth in generic drugs in the quarter was new product introductions, not price increases.
Big Five Sporting Goods (NSDQ:BGFV) left me scratching my head last week. The company reported a fabulous quarter, $.24, 70% higher than estimates. It beat on all metrics, sales, margins and earnings. Guidance for the second quarter was strong also.
The company continues to do well partly due to the demise of The Sports Authority and smaller competitors. As the last man standing, Big Five should continue to do well selling to customers who prefer to shop in physical stores. I do not expect 100% of sporting goods purchases to migrate online and see Big Five as a big winner.
Oddly after a huge jump to $18 after the close, the stock opened down on Wednesday after earnings. Estimates continue to increase and now look for 53% growth in 2017 to $1.18 and 10% growth in 2018. The stock trades for a tiny P/E of 11 times. Management continues to spend conservatively, the balance sheet looks great, and, oh, by the way, the stock has a 4% dividend yield. I recommend subscribers buy on the dip.
Carbonite (NSDQ:CARB) gave a solid quarter performance and increased the low end of estimates for the year. Revenue and earnings beat estimates slightly. The most impressive news is the company’s cash flow, which jumped $15 million from a $7 million use of cash to generating $8 million. We’ll be monitoring trends as the company works to integrate its recent purchase of Double-Take software.
The Chemours (NYSE:CC) reported a fabulous quarter. Earnings were $.75, 50% higher than the $.50 expected. Adoption of the company’s Opteon low global warming refrigerant is taking off. The stock sold off a bit after the quarter on fears that revenue was boosted by one large customer stocking up.However, management confirmed that demand is stable and inventory in the channel is not inflated. The Chemours is trading with a P/E of just 11 on 2018 estimates of $3.58. I’m reviewing my own internal estimates but think this stock is a great buy as fundamentals are even better than I had predicted.
Put position Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) reported a better than expected quarter but stole earnings from the second quarter by postponing spending plans. Delays in promotions helped boost earnings but will now cut into the second quarter as spending starts. The stock is up due to optimism from management about its laundry products, particularly in club stores. The CHD puts do not expire until July so I’m holding on to them as I expect the stock to revert down.
Criteo (NSDQ:CRTO) reported a decent quarter. Revenue and earnings came in slightly above expectations. Revenue growth is slowing to the mid-20 range from a burst up to the mid-30’s in prior quarters. This was due to some new product introductions.
I am lowering my target to $65, a level that still represents 23% upside from today’s price. Although the slower growth has been expected by analysts, I’ll be watching the stock closely to see how investors digest management’s updated metric.
Put position Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE:EPC) was incredibly frustrating. Edgewell’s quarter was slightly better than expected but guidance was horrible. I think the stock is up because the shaving business was not as bad as Gillette had been broadcasting. That said, it is in decline and future quarters look even worse. The company kept annual guidance only after lowering its tax rate estimate and shares outstanding materially. Sales will be worse than expected and profits worse.
Unfortunately, these puts expire in two weeks. I think the stock will reverse some of its move upwards and am closely watching to see if other investors read through the purposely foggy outlook.
Impinj (NSDQ:PI) beat revenue and earnings estimates just slightly. Revenue grew an impressive 47% and adjusted profits equaled $.01. Management reiterated that 2017 will be an investment year, which means expenses will grow at least in line with revenue as the company builds up its sales force and back office.
The stock dipped after the close but jumped after the company’s conference call when an analyst asked about the industry event for PI’s technology, RAIN, that is being co-hosted by Impinj and Amazon. Clearly, the stock is being buoyed by hopes for a deal with the biggest retail customer in the world.
While an Amazon contract would likely give the company a huge boost to revenue, I like its prospects as they stand. It is rolling out a large new customer and is adding customers in healthcare and transportation, which insulates the company from retail cycles.
Despite Integrated Device’s (NSDQ:IDTI) stock dipping on the results, I think the quarter marked a turning point for the company. It’s cloud business, which makes up 36% of sales, grew 5% sequentially and should see stronger growth in the second half of the year.
The automotive business, which I am most excited about, now makes up 11% of revenue. As this segment continues to make up a bigger part of Integrated’s revenue, its success will pull up overall profits.
I acknowledge the stock has been a difficult one as it works through softness in some of its older chip lines but I think investors will do well holding onto this name. However, I would put a $20 stop loss on half positions to protect yourself if the stock drifts lower.
Stock Talk
Linda McDonough
Subscribers-
Masonite (NSDQ:DOOR) reported a weak quarter this morning. Although pricing held up, volumes were down versus last year, partly due to a big shipment to Home Depot last year. Management was upbeat, however, saying sales had improved each month in the quarter.
I’m reviewing my model but am inclined to give the company a one quarter grace period based on the strong housing numbers I’m seeing. That said, I would put a $72 stop on half a position. I don’t expect the stock to go that low but want to protect any gains you have.
Martin Vetter
Thanks, Linda, for your recommendation on how to manage this investment.
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Linda McDonough
Another update for the portfolio:
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ:JAZZ) first quarter was a bit sloppy but I recommend subscribers buy the stock on the dip. After market close, the stock was trading down to $155, still higher than my official $149 buy limit, but a good entry price. Full year estimates remain at $11.00.
Sales missed by $1 million, a miss of less than 1%. Sales of the company’s lead drug Xyrem, for narcolepsy, were up less than expected due to Medicare and Medicaid patients skipping doses as they work their way through deductibles.
However, sales of new product, Defitelio, used during stem cell transplantation, is doing very well. In addition, Jazz has several late-stage product trials that look very promising and cancer drug Vyxeos, is awaiting FDA approval. I think the stock could race higher as investors assess the potential of these new drugs.
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