Big Five and Smart Sand dirt cheap in the wake of Amazon and oil and a shaky second quarter on tap
The market continues to digest political and economic news with a carefree air. Despite a continued sell-off in oil and increased uncertainty for Brexit and domestic healthcare and tax reform, the S&P has chosen to turn a blind eye to these matters and keep its laser focus on the earnings horizon.
Most public companies are just wrapping up their June fiscal second quarters. I’m a bit nervous heading into this earnings season. Valuations are high, and volatility has been remarkably low, a sign that investors are complacent.
Right now the overall estimate for the S&P 500 is for 6.6% earnings growth in the second quarter. While this is a strong absolute number, just three months ago the estimate was for almost 9% growth. Stocks tend to move lower when estimates are cut, not higher.
But as always, there are mini-bear and bull markets within the larger stock market. So while I stay aware of the bigger picture, my focus is on specific stock and industry news. I am toiling away to get some new trades out to take advantage of the big moves that should occur with second quarter earnings.
We scored two terrific gains last week. With the closure of these trades, I know that our “inventory” of names, especially on the options side, is quite low. I’m working hard to get new ideas out to you as quickly as possible!
We sold Impinj (NYSE: PI), a stock that does not fit the traditional reasonably priced growth profile of most Profit Catalyst Alert stocks. I recommended the stock last December when the first speculation hit that Amazon might use its wireless tagging technology. Deeper research unveiled a company with unique technology growing earnings more than 50%. After its big run, the stock is selling at 120 times 2018 earnings, a bit too rich for my blood!
We also sold the PRA Health Sciences (NSDQ: PRAH) calls for a 56% gain in a little more than a month. The stock jumped as high as $77 on Thursday after competitor Parexel (NSDQ: PRXL) was purchased by private equity. We still own the stock in the portfolio.
On a comparable basis, PRA would sell for at least the mid-80s. Adjusting for PRA’s higher growth rate, it would fetch triple digits. My target is $94 and is not based on the expectation that the company will be acquired but rather will move higher based on fabulous earnings growth.
Around the portfolio:
Big Five Sporting Goods (NSDQ: BGFV): Athletic retailers took it on the chin last week when rumors hit that Nike would allow distribution of some product through Amazon. If true, this would have minimal impact on Big Five.
I continue to like Big Five, which is down 15% since my recommendation. This small cap ($294 million) is being lumped in with more sneaker-centric companies. I think the sell-off is unwarranted and offers a great buying opportunity.
Nike represents less than 10% of Big Five’s merchandise, compared to 73% of footwear retailer Finish Line (NSDQ: FINL). The reason I like Big Five is partly its lower exposure to athletic footwear (28% of sales). Athletic footwear, particularly basketball footwear, can swing wildly based on the success of one new shoe introduction.
Big Five has a more balanced sales mix of 28% footwear, 52% hardware (think bats, baseball gloves, kayaks, fishing goods) and 20% clothing. It should continue to do well as competitors in the hard goods space exit the market.
The company will report earnings in early August.
Smart Sand: Crude oil continued its slide, dropping below $45, a level not seen since last summer. Perversely, the lower oil prices are a sign that demand for Smart Sand’s product is likely remaining high.
Oil prices are dropping because shale oil production has risen despite agreements in OPEC members to cut production. A recent chart in the Wall Street Journal shows the surge in shale production, particularly in the Permian Basin, an area to which Smart Sand has direct rail access. Remember, sand is heavy stuff and the further it needs to travel, the more expensive the proposition to a driller.
This stock is my worst performer by far, and I’ve been digging through all the news I can find to determine if there is some disastrous news on the horizon. Based on my analysis, I think the fundamentals for Smart Sand are sound. Obviously, the stock would act better if oil were to rise, but I do not see the current price of oil reflecting a doomsday scenario.
Stock Talk
Edward Getchell
Re June 20 alert vs this alert… I think you should have made it clear on June 20, for those holding PRAH stock at that time, that they should sit tight.
Ed
Linda McDonough
Ed,
Thank you for the comment. I will make that clear in future alerts.
All of the options trades I recommend are short term in nature simply due to their expiration dates. (I don’t often trade in LEAPS, which have a much longer time horizon).
Whenever I add a new stock to the portfolio, it is intended to be a longer term trade. I look for a move in 6-9 months for most names. I know that many subscribers also like to trade options so I include an options trade with each stock recommendation whenever that is possible. However, the options trade will almost always have a shorter holding period than the stock.
Best,
Linda
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David Miller
Can you please comment on what to expect from Amazon tonight.
Linda McDonough
David,
Although I mention Amazon in this post, I’m focusing on Amazon’s impact for Big Five Sporting Goods (BGFV). I’ll be watching Amazon for comments on how much it will spend on its distribution network and what new product categories it is adding. However, I don’t have a detailed model on the stock so don’t have an estimate for revenue and earnings.
Best,
Linda
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Edward Getchell
Hi Linda, Big Five Sporting Goods is now down around 40%. What do you think now, time to invest whats left of my Big Five investment into something more promising? Any suggestions?
With all the drilling rigs going back to work it is hard for me to understand why Smart Sand is down nearly 60%. Is there something besides market forces at work here?
Ed
Linda McDonough
Hi Edward,
Below is my post on Big Five from earlier this week.
Regarding SND, the whole group is under pressure because investors are worried about additional sand capacity coming online. I think the selling is irrational as it takes significant time and capital to get these mines open and SND has a good rail structure for getting the sand to where it’s needed. I’m sitting tight on this one as painful as it is.
Hello all,
Big Five Sporting Goods (NSDQ: BGFV) dropped this week after reporting a less than expected quarter. Big Five has been dropping due to poor results from many of its sporting goods competitors which I erroneously thought would cushion the stock if results were soft. I was wrong but have a hard time selling a stock that currently sells for 9x 2018 estimates and has a 6% dividend yield.
Although April and May were good months for Big Five, June comps dropped mid-single digits, primarily in camping and firearms. July comps are down low single digit as well. Lower estimates for the third quarter assume no real upswing in comps for the final two months.
One bright spot for the company is profit margins which were up year over year. I am giving the company one quarter to prove that the weakness in camping is due to wet weather (many California campgrounds were closed early in the summer).
I recommend subscribers place a $8 stop loss on positions.
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Melody Pfingsten
Linda, you never commented on if you were checking out sedg again. I held on and now we are in the money. Thank you,I think i will sell at 30 now. I too am holding on to snd as i did sedg and look it worked out!
Linda McDonough
Melody,
I apologize, I thought I did respond. I’ve been watching it and kicking myself for selling it at the low last year. I’ve been swamped with all of our other stocks but have been wanting to get up to speed. Nice work holding on- it’s been a true Phoenix rising from the ashes!
Best,
Linda
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Rob Tully
Linda, what are your thoughts on ICHR. Looks like an overreaction with the recent drop, but not sure if i should hold or get out before earnings this week.
Linda McDonough
Hi Rob,
I just posted comments on ICHR this morning in the weekly recap.
I agree that the sell off is an overreaction and that this is a great entry point. I think the sell off was because of the additional shares being sold. I don’t expect any incrementally significant news this week with the report as the company gave guidance in conjunction with the deal notice. I will let you know if there’s anything unusual with the balance sheet or cash flow but to date, Ichor has had clean financials so I don’t expect that.
Linda
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