Earnings Season Hits Full Tilt- A List of Best Bargains Right Now

We are in the eye of the storm for the second quarter earnings season. We had three companies report last week (Akamai and put position stocks VF Corp and Columbia Sportswear) and have NINE on deck this week.

I’ll list the schedule below. I note next to each symbol if the company reports before the market opens (BMO) or after market close (AMC). I have an earnings model on each company in our portfolio and run through the income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to see if there are any surprising trends. I also listen or read through the transcript of every call.

If things are going according to plan, I may not comment. However, I do my best to post a quick update if a stock moves dramatically. If you don’t see a comment on one of our stocks, feel free to post a question on the Stock Talk board, and I’ll respond as quickly as I can.

For subscribers interested in options trades, if you haven’t purchased the suggested puts yet for VF Corp (NYSE: VFC) or Columbia Sportswear (NSDQ: COLM), I think they are incredible bargains. Both stocks fundamentals are tracking badly, and the puts are trading well below my entry point. You can see the detailed symbols for these puts on the portfolio page.

Earnings Report Schedule
Monday: STS (BMO) and IDTI (AMC)
Tuesday: BGFV (AMC)
Wednesday: CC (BMO), CRTO (BMO) and VMC (BMO)
Thursday: ANIP (BMO), CARB (AMC) and MWA (AMC)

Around the portfolio:
Akamai (NSDQ: AKAM) reported a clunker of a quarter last week. Although the report was good for the current quarter (beat eps and revenue slightly), the company lowered the outlook for the third quarter. While the guide down is not huge, some investors are getting impatient waiting for Akamai’s media business to turn around. I think the sell-off is way overdone. Akamai generated $225M in cash this quarter and sports mid-30 percent margins. The six large media customers who have been shifting their traffic in-house now represent less than 10% of revenue. I think the stock is a great buy here on the drop.

ANI Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: ANIP) was initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Genuity. Analyst Dewey Steadman started coverage with a Buy rating and $60 price target. The company’s launch pipeline is strong and could drive “significant near-term growth,” the analyst contends. Look for earnings from ANIP on Thursday.

Columbia Sportswear (NSDQ: COLM), a stock where we hold a put position, reported earnings last week. The stock initially popped 7.5% due to a small revenue beat, but it reversed itself as investors digested the news that Q3 will be down significantly due to a delay in orders from retailers. Similar to put position VF Corporation, Columbia’s fourth quarter will make or break its year.

I think it is unlikely the company has a strong fourth quarter. As it stands, product margins dropped almost a full percent from last year, an indication that it had to markdown product to entice retailers to buy. Also, the company has lost its COO, SVP of Global Sourcing and CFO in the past six months.

I specifically recommended the January 2018 puts as I suspected management might try to put a bullish spin on its business as it waits with baited breath for Q4 orders.

Ichor Holdings (NSDQ: ICHR) purchased Cal-Weld for $50M. Cal-Weld is a leader in the design and fabrication of high precision purity and industrial components, sub-systems, and systems. Its customers are from many industries, with particular concentration on high technology segments including semiconductor, solar, nanotech, MEMS, bio-med, defense, aerospace, research and alternative energy. The acquisition is projected to add $.07-.10 to Ichor’s non-GAAP eps for the third quarter and $29-.39 on an annual basis.

Jazz Pharmaceutical (NSDQ: JAZZ) entered into a license agreement for the rights to develop, manufacture and commercialize products using XLp’s PASylation Technology. This technology extends the plasma half-life of selected product candidates. Under the terms of the agreement, Jazz will gain access to XLp’s PASylation technology to enable construction of molecules intended to extend both the circulating half-life and the duration of therapeutic effect.

Supreme Industries (AMEX: STS) missed revenue and earnings estimates by 15% when it reported just this morning (Monday). While I am disappointed, the company’s orders tend to come in lumpy, which makes forecasting quarters quite difficult. In addition, the stock is thinly traded, which can exacerbate price movements.

I think the stock is a screaming buy. Much of the weakness this quarter is due to a higher proportion of trucks sold to leasing companies, which require fewer bells and whistles and produce lower margins for Supreme.

Management noted that its backlog of orders, which is up 17% from last year, contains a better mix of more profitable trucks. Also, the company passed an initial trial period to supply delivery trucks to Costco and is discussing expanding this relationship. Costco would be a huge new customer for Supreme.

Stock Talk

Guest User

Guest User

can we have feedback on ICHR and IDTI ?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Hello,
Thanks for the question. I apologize for the lengthy response. The summary is that fundamentals are on track for both companies and I still like both stocks. Here’s the longer version:

Ichor (NSDQ: ICHR) pre-announced a strong quarter last Tuesday in conjunction with a new acquisition and a secondary of 5.5 million shares being sold by insiders. Revenue will equal $165 million, $23 million higher than estimates and earnings will equal $.62, $.12 higher than estimates. While the company’s purchase of Cal-Weld represents some of this upside, the company’s basic business is still delivering higher than expected results.

My guess is that the stock is selling off due to the news of the secondary. Of the 24 million total shares outstanding on Ichor, only half of those are in the float or available to trade. The secondary of 5.5 million shares is large in comparison to the float.

But that doesn’t concern me. Ichor is a fairly small cap stock (roughly $500 million) and many mutual funds or large institutions cannot buy the stock due to the limited number of shares. Trends in revenue and earnings growth look great and I think the additional shares could actually bring more buyers on board to the stock.

Integrated Device Technology (NSDQ: IDTI) reported a solid quarter. Revenue and earnings beat estimates by about 1%, not a huge beat, but an improvement from some of its recent misses.

It takes a long time for Integrated’s customers to come on board. The company must submit prototype chips which then must be tested aggressively to ensure full functionality. Based on the numbers presented, it looks like new orders are arriving.

Most importantly, industrial and automotive customers, whose orders are more predictable, grew 35% sequentially and now make up 13% of total sales. Guidance for the next quarter frames current revenue estimates of $199 million.

Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock to Underperform after earnings as the analyst is growing impatient for large revenue increases. Yet it is telling that he is keeping his $27 target. The stock has been a slow grower but I think it will hit a pivot point as the industrial and auto customers make up an increasingly bigger portion of revenue.

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