Weeding Out Integrated Devices, Good News for Truckers and More

I hope this Monday morning finds you and your family safe and sound after four days of Irma unleashing her wrath right on the heels of Hurricane Harvey. My thoughts are with those whose lives were damaged in any way by these two belligerent and ferocious storms.

Most of us who work with the stock market do our very best to prepare for financial hurricanes; we stress-test earnings models, research industries, analyze risk scenarios and constantly prune and tend to portfolios in the hopes that we can avoid a financial “storm”.

Of course, like the storms we’ve seen in the past weeks, there’s only so much a stock picker can do if the overall market gets swamped by a selling squall. However, there is an enormous amount of benefit from vigilant and constant weeding of a portfolio that can be done under “sunny skies”.

I’ve found it’s always better to prune stocks while the market’s moving up. Akin to cleaning your gutters in fair weather, the process of selling stocks is more productive and less emotional in a bull market.

My sale of Integrated Device Technology Inc. (NSDQ: IDTI) is the result of some serious weeding. The stock has been hard to get excited about, despite some very good automotive technology that it acquired via its purchase of ZMDI. Earnings have missed just slightly for several quarters, and some balance sheet items (account receivable in this case) keep moving in the wrong direction.

While it’s certainly possible the stock will move higher, I must always weigh the risk versus the reward, and the numbers are telling me the risks to owning Integrated are higher than the possible reward. I’m happy to get out of the stock at a slight gain.

Subscribers who still own Ambarella (NSDQ: AMBA), which I sold at a tough loss last week, have seen the stock jump 10% on the back of some positive news out from customer GoPro. I have been suspicious that GoPro had a second cheaper source of camera chips for its drones and the sequence of news from GoPro and Ambarella shows this is likely.

Ambarella reported on August 31 revenue that matched estimates but warned that demand is weak for its quarter ending October. Then last week, GoPro announced sales were better than expected for its new action camera launches. If Ambarella were selling the chips for those products, it would have already started shipping the chips to GoPro and would not have predicted a poor quarter. If Ambarella’s revenue hasn’t seen a revenue pop from GoPro’s higher sales, it is not coming.

Bottom Line: If you still own Ambarella, consider this 10% bump a gift from Mr. Market.

I also initiated three call positions on smaller trucking companies. I issued the recommendation a bit earlier than I originally expected for fear that Irma’s destruction might send the group skyward. To date, that has not happened so subscribers might have a chance to get involved at great prices.

All of the trucker stock trades are based on fundamentals that are improving even without the incremental benefit of more goods being shipped to hurricane impacted geographies. The expirations are chosen to coordinate with each company’s earnings date.

 

Around the Portfolio:

Criteo (NSDQ: CRTO), a stock quite sensitive to public opinion on online advertising, took it on the chin last week due to an industry report that accused Facebook (one of Criteo’s largest customers) of inflating demographic data to win more ad dollars from clients.

I remind subscribers that Criteo gets paid only when a real live consumer clicks or responds to one of its delivered ads. Advertisers should be willing to spend more money for ads delivered via Criteo as they know they will be more effective.

Analyst Matthew Thornton from SunTrust analyst says that Criteo has also probably been under pressure ” due to fears that Apple (AAPL) will extend its anti-tracking feature to Safari mobile at its event on 9/12.” However, after speaking with a privately held peer of Criteo, Thornton estimates that such a move would lower Criteo’s revenue by less than 8% in a worst-case scenario. Consequently, he thinks that Criteo’s stock could remain weak through 9/12 before rebounding after that date. The analyst keeps a $59 price target and a Buy rating on the stock.

Gap (NYSE: GPS) gave a positive and well-received update last week at a Goldman conference. CEO Art Peck noted that Old Navy and Athleta are both on track to hit exceed sales targets of $10 billion and $1 billion respectively, over the next few years.

The company will close underperforming Gap stores and Banana Republic stores while focusing on opening stores for stronger brands like Old Navy and Athleta. Analysts responded by reiteration buy ratings.

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik says Gap’s investor presentation today shows the retailer is taking the right steps to position its business for the long-term and that he believes the $10 billion revenue target laid out for Old Navy underscores the ongoing momentum at the brand. He reiterates a Buy rating on Gap shares with a $35 price target.

A bit more on Integrated Device Technology (NSDQ: IDTI):

Although I’ve just sold this stock today, I am sharing the bullish argument from one analyst.

Craig-Hallum analyst Anthony Stoss says he would be a buyer of Integrated Device as he believes the accelerating deployments of small cells are a positive trend for Integrated Device. His bullish call relies on demand for timing products to offset a weak communication’s end market, which he doesn’t see improving until late 2018.

On the company’s recent earnings call management backpedaled a bit on 2018 guidance, an indication that positive developments in some of its smaller product lines are not enough to offset the drop in the communications market.

Option position stocks Old Dominion (NSDQ: ODFL), SAIA (NSDQ: SAIA) and Werner Enterprises (NSDQ: WERN) should benefit from strong truckload trends.

Strong new orders for heavy-duty trucks in North America accelerated in August for the third straight month.Trucking companies ordered 21,200 Class 8 trucks, according to ACT Research, up 13% from July and 49% from a year ago.

Robust shipping demand comes as shipment rates and volume demand are accelerating. Part of this is due to healthier economic trends and consumer companies restocking low inventory but is also due to logistical issues with CSX (NYSE: CSX), who has been attempting to streamline its railroad but has had tremendous problems with idle trains.

DAT Solutions LLC says pricing on the spot truckload market for dry-van transport rose 11% last month. Less-than-truckload carrier Dominion Freight Line Inc. says its demand accelerated in August, with shipments per day rising 6.6% from a year ago.

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