How Kroger’s analyst day could impact Post Holdings and Pinnacle Foods, why Criteo bounced 9% and more…

As the calendar flips to October, that means just one thing for Wall Street; all eyes are zeroed in on third-quarter earnings. The majority of public companies use a December fiscal year end and will be reporting September quarters over the next few weeks.

With the S&P 500 trading at record highs, this season’s earnings’ results may have an outsized impact on stock prices. Stocks have had a tremendous run based on optimism for economic growth in the U.S. and a continuation of subdued interest rates, both necessary legs to support higher equity prices.

However, this robust move, which has driven the S&P 500 up almost 14% year to date, brings with it fattened valuations. When a company is sporting a high valuation whiffs on a quarter, the punishment can be swift and painful.

Those that deliver robust earnings paired with increased guidance for future quarters should enjoy healthy gains.

My job is to figure out which stocks will beat and which will miss expectations. I am hard at work on this side of the keyboard working through Wall Street assumptions for revenue and profit growth for scores of companies.

I will update you each week with a list of companies in our portfolio reporting accompanied by any conference call information that is available. The first company I see scheduled is VF Corp (NYSE: VFC) which reports on October 23rd.

Keep your eyes out for new trade recommendations. We still have two weeks before the bulk of companies report, and I hope to have a few new ideas out for you before then.

Around the Portfolio:

Akamai (NSDQ: AKAM) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Guggenheim by bearish analyst Robert Gutman. He cited the stock’s cheap valuation and raised its price target by one dollar to $54. I am watching this stock closely for positive commentary as its last quarter was disappointing.

Both Columbia Sportswear (NSDQ: COLM) and VF Corp. rose last week on the backs of a Buy rating from Pivotal Research analyst Mitch Kummetz. His rating is partly based on the assumption that both companies are well positioned to address changing market dynamics because of their digital capabilities.

My bearish take on these two stocks does not rest on a poor online or digital marketing strategy but rather notes that this part of both VF Corp and Columbia’s business is too small to counteract the deteriorating brick and mortar portion of their model.

After being battered by a bearish report from Gotham City Research, Criteo (NSDQ: CRTO) jumped 10% last week, partly on a new analyst recommendation.

JMP Securities analyst Andrew Boone started Criteo with an Outperform rating, as he predicts it will benefit from increased programmatic adoption expected over the next three to five years. The analyst, who thinks the company’s data collectives are driving superior performance and that the Criteo Engine can continue to improve, set a $60 price target on the shares.

Recent put positions Post Holdings (NYSE: POST) and Pinnacle Foods (NYSE: PF) may see some softness this week when grocery store customer Kroger (NYSE: KR) hosts an analyst day on Wednesday, October 11.

In the face of rapidly shifting consumer preference in grocery stores, Kroger pulled its long-term guidance on its last quarterly conference call in September. Management promised more details on its goals and priorities at the up and coming analyst day.

I expect Kroger to focus on its Prep+Pared prepared meals and its Simple Truth private label brand. Shelf space is increasingly being taken away from the packaged foods the Post and Pinnacle sell to make more space for these product lines that customers are demanding.

I’ll be reviewing the transcripts to see what Kroger has to say about pricing and demand for the packaged foods that both Post and Pinnacle sell to them. I expect it will be negative.

Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) may get a lift from positive comments from industry consolidation. Bloomberg reported that a Belgian mining firm is considering acquiring SmartSand competitor Fairmount Santrol Holdings (NSDQ: FMSA). In response to a question about the possible merger analyst Ken Sill at SunTrust said he thinks that demand trends in the sector are strong and “sees value in the sand stocks.”

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