A Wrap-Up of Earnings- ANI Pharm and Carbonite Jump, Criteo Sags

After a whirlwind week, we have a bit of a reprieve. Not only did we have nine companies report earnings, most experienced some degree of excessive volatility. I blame the whip-saw action on a few things:

  1. Nervous investors. The market is at all-time highs, and valuations share that record. Investors flip on the selling switch if a company delivers bad news. However, a new crop of investors who fear on missing out of the next rally rush into to buy on weakness.
  2. Revenue and earnings are running out of some steam. We’ve had four quarters of robust growth, which mathematically makes future percentage increases more difficult. Some estimates have become too optimistic.

This volatility is why I attempt to find companies enjoying some unique tailwind. Whether it is ANI Pharma’s (NSDQ: ANIP) ability to manufacture a complex generic drug or The Chemours (NYSE: CC) semi-exclusive lock on green hydrocarbon chemicals, stocks that are riding a secular wave outside of just a strong stock market should offer a buffer against market softness.

On tap this week are earnings from five more stocks. After this week, we’ll have just two left, Gap (NYSE: GPS) who reports on November 16, and Steelcase (NSDQ: SCS) a company whose quarter ends in November and will report mid-December.

Tuesday, Nov. 7: Jazz Pharma (NSDQ: JAZZ), Masonite (NYSE: DOOR)
Thursday, Nov. 9: Charles River Labs (NYSE: CRL), Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) and Ichor (NSDQ: ICHR)

Around the Portfolio:

After a few rocky quarters, ANI Pharmaceuticals delivered a winner. Revenue beat slightly, but improved profitability helped the company beat earnings estimates by $12c and gave management the confidence to increase fourth quarter guidance by $.16. The company now expects to earn $3.92 this year.

Most importantly, and the reason I’ve recommended the stock, is that the company is making steady progress in commercializing its corticotropin drug. It has secured a long-term commercial supply agreement with its Cortrophin® gel fill/finish contract manufacturer (“CMO”) and plans to initiate manufacturing Cortrophin® gel development batches in the fourth quarter of 2017.

As a reminder, the generic form of Corticotropin is sold by one company and generates over $1 billion in sales. It is very difficult to manufacture, which is why ANI’s progress on this front is so encouraging.

Big Five Sporting Goods (NSDQ: BGFV) reported an in-line quarter but lowered estimates for the next. I think the stock’s valuation reflects incredible pessimism regarding the company’s prospects, a notion supported by the fact that the stock initially rose on the news.

Despite lowering estimates for the fourth quarter, the stock bounced due to relief that September sales improved slightly and that numbers weren’t cut more dramatically. The stock has since limped along.

I am impressed with Big Five’s ability to hang on to good product margins and believe that as one of the remaining few brick and mortar sporting goods retailers, it will succeed. The stock is dirt cheap with a P/E (price to earnings ratio) of 7. The stock offers a 10% dividend yield- a payout hard to find for a company with a solid balance sheet.

Carbonite (NSDQ: CARB) continues to progress on its integration of DoubleTake software to deliver corporate-level backup and recovery services for data. Revenue came in as expected but bookings, a better indicator of future growth for a subscription business, rose 21%, higher than expected.

I like this stock as a play on the explosive growth of data and the requirement that companies and individuals have fast and easy methods to retrieve lost data. Carbonite’s easy to use and flexible software solution gives it a solid position in the market.

The Chemours Company  reported a good quarter Thursday night with revenue coming in slightly above estimates and earnings of $1.12 well above estimates of $1.04. Yet, the stock dropped almost 10%.

From the best I can tell, the stock is trading down due to concerns that pricing on the company’s Opteon refrigerant with automotive manufacturers is slightly below open market pricing.


Also, the quarter was helped by higher prices on the old version of refrigerant, a product being phased out due to environmental regulations. The bump in these prices is simply due to less availability and is not part of the company’s long-term strategy.


Its focus is on growing Opteon sales and profitability, goals the company is meeting each quarter. I think the worry is overdone and the stock is a great buy here, as the U.S. follows the same regulatory framework that Europe has in eliminating the use of old refrigerants. These need to be replaced by either Chemour’s Opteon product or Honeywell’s (NYSE: HON) version of a “green” refrigerant.


As a reminder, global environmental regulations require that no new R-22 refrigerant (the old refrigerant product) can be manufactured or imported into the US or Canada by January 1, 2020.


Criteo (NSDQ: CRTO) continues to deliver headaches. In its usual pattern, it beat earnings and revenue estimates for the quarter but provided revenue guidance less than expected for the next quarter. The difference this time is the magnitude of the low-balling.


I am currently reviewing some industry trends to determine if we should stick with this stock. In the meantime, I suggest a $35 stop loss. I recommended Criteo in March 2016 and enjoyed gains of almost 40% before watching them evaporate. More to come on this name.


Mueller Water (NYSE: MWA) reported a pretty boring but solid quarter. The company sees FY18 sales growth of 4%-7% and expects end market demand to be strong. It expects free cash flow (the amount of cash generated by the business after money spent on equipment to support it) to exceed net income driven by improved operating results.

 I still like Mueller as a play on the exponential demand for clean water solutions globally.

Steven Madden (NSDQ: SHOO) was kicked to the side in a harsh reaction to what I see as some temporary weakness in boot sales. The company reported earnings and sales in line with estimates. However, Madden has come in well above estimates for the prior two quarters; a pattern investors were obviously expecting to continue.

While it was not a perfect quarter, I see the 14% drop in the stock as an overreaction. Madden’s private label sales to Payless, declined due to Payless’s credit reorganization and should improve.

Sales of fashion sneakers continue to do well but boots, which make up a larger portion of third and fourth quarter sales, were weak. This weakness is partly due to warmer weather and partly due to how high sales were last year. Current estimates incorporate a double-digit decline in boot sales, so I think numbers are sufficiently conservative and the stock should jump as we move into the spring season.

Our calls do not expire until mid-December, but I am keeping a close eye on them.

Systemax (NYSE: SYX) delivered excellent results. Revenue grew 13% to $319 million and beat estimates by $14 million. Earnings were equally satisfying, more than doubling to $.32 and beating estimates by 10%.

CEO and President Lawrence P. Reinhold reiterated his confidence in its industrial markets,

“Industrial remains well positioned for the future. Our investments in operational improvements are showing solid returns, and we are strengthening our customer relationships. We remain focused on long-term profitability and continue to explore strategic acquisition opportunities that can support and accelerate our expansion efforts.”

Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC) reported solid numbers after the close last Thursday. Despite severe interruptions in production and shipments of its sand, gravel and crushed stone aggregates, the company met earnings and revenue estimates.

The company, which provides product to large industrial and government-funded construction projects has always been subject to lumpy demand, and the current environment is no exception.

Management noted that hurricane-related recovery projects and delayed construction due to the storms will provide a long and healthy tail of demand. However, that demand will not be immediate or entirely predictable. The giant increases in costs as a result of storms, however, will abate quickly.

I still like the stock due to what I consider a significant competitive advantage in an industry with high barriers to entry. Most investors holding the stock recognize that results for Vulcan can be volatile so I don’t expect more selling on this news.

Stock Talk

Tom B

Tom B

Hi Linda:
ANIP certainly had a wonderful Black Friday. I can’t find any news. Perhaps a buyout, as alluded to on Bloomberg months ago? I haven’t sold yet, but thanks for another winner!
Regards, Tom

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Hi Tom,
Yes, there was a rumor circulating on Friday that a bid may be coming. I saw a recap on a few sites but haven’t been able to find the root of the story (perhaps that’s the definition of a rumor!). I have some commentary in the weekly update that you’ll see later today but I still like the stock quite a bit.

The company is making great progress with its corticotropin generic, which I think is the crown jewel of its drug portfolio.

Best,
Linda

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