Beats by Smart Sand and Masonite and a Big Week in Store for Retail Plays
I’ve been noting the volatility in the market that’s not getting picked up by the averages. This week’s Barron’s financial magazine notes that last Tuesday’s all-time high in the Nasdaq included less than 30% of stocks rising.
In addition to the lack of breadth, that is the number of stocks participating in the rally, the reaction to less than ebullient news for stocks has been swift and harsh. Every day I take note of the stocks moving the most. A 15-20% one-day decline, something usually warranted for a disaster, has been a common occurrence for a tepid quarter this earnings season.
I think the market is undergoing some major rotation and anyone who whiffs on a quarter is quickly sent to the penalty box. I never advocate rushed decisions and always analyze what happened when a company misses or guides down on a quarter. If the impetus is a one-time event, I will usually give a company one more quarter to prove itself.
However, when the market is so extended, you will likely see me selling positions faster than usual. Just today I recommended selling Criteo (NSDQ: CRTO) and Charles River Labs (NYSE: CRL).
In retrospect, I should have sold both sooner.
Criteo has been causing headaches ever since Apple introduced its newest version of the ad-blocking software to the Safari browser. Criteo has dealt with similar obstacles in the past, so I trusted management when they reassured investors that their ad delivery system would see minimal impact on revenue.
The quarter last week was fine, but the company lowered its outlook due to the effects from Apple. This reduction in conjunction with a shift in some of its products will make it difficult for Criteo to return to the mid-20’s growth rate necessary to support the stock’s valuation.
On Charles River Labs, it was a totally different situation. The stock hit my $102 target late in the summer but continued to march straight up, despite no material increase in estimates. It’s a rock solid company, so I held on and enjoyed the ride.
Come last week a minor tweak down to fourth quarter revenue growth sent the stock spinning. I suggest booking the 37% gain (not shabby but a lot less than the 61% we had before last week). I’ll be looking to revisit this name if it gets cheap enough.
I also introduced three new bullish retail option trades on Friday. These are quite time-sensitive as all three companies report earnings this week. I’ll give you an up to date report on each as they report.
Now that earnings season is winding down, I have a list a mile long of new names I’m looking at for the portfolio. I expect to have some terrific new buy recommendations shortly. Good growth stocks trading at reasonable levels are hard to come by these days, but I’m confident there’s some glitter in the pile.
Along with call position stocks Dicks Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS), Target (NYSE: TGT) and Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM), retailer Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) reports this week.
Tuesday, Nov. 14: Dicks Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) 10:00 AM (EST)
Directions: A webcast will be available via the company’s website. Also, the call can be accessed by dialing (877) 443-5743 (domestic callers) or (412) 902-6617 (international callers)
Wednesday, Nov. 15: Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) 8:00 AM (EST)
Directions: A webcast will be available via the company’s website.
Thursday, Nov. 16: Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM) 5:00 PM (EST)
Directions: A webcast will be available via the company’s website.
Thursday, Nov. 16: Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) 5:00 PM (EST)
Around the Portfolio:
Janney Capital analyst Ken Trbovich recommends being a buyer of Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: JAZZ) shares following the company’s “mixed” Q3 report, as he continues to see Jazz being excellently positioned for long-term sustainable growth given the recent launch of Vyxeos, the expected approval, and launch of JZP-110 and line extensions for Xyrem.
JPMorgan hosted a call with management CEO Bruce Cozadd last week and expects re-accelerating growth in Xyrem sales a strong launch of recently approved Vyxeos. With the shares trading at 11 times her 2018 earnings estimate, JPMorgan analyst Fye continues to see Jazz as a “compelling opportunity.”
Masonite (NYSE: DOOR) jumped 12% last week when it reported earnings of $1.00 versus a $.92 estimate. Revenue beat by $7 million. After a disappointing June quarter, investors celebrated this victory.
It’s too early to tell if Masonite is out of the woods regarding the weak demand that hurt results earlier in the year. I’m holding on to the stock but lowering my price target to $75.
Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) delivered in spades this quarter. It reported Q3 EPS $.17, almost twice consensus of $.10. Revenue was 17% higher than estimated and grew 260% from last year. Most importantly the company announced that its train capable rail yard would be fully functioning by year end.
Selling sand is as much a logistics puzzle as a mining one. Smart Sand got clobbered earlier this year due to investors’ fear that competing sand mines were slated to open closer to customer sites.
Smart Sand is also leasing mine acreage in various drilling basins across the southwest to deliver high-quality sand to customers at the lowest and most efficient cost. The stock is followed by just two brokerage firms. Hopefully this basket of bullish news will grab the attention of more investors. The stock jumped 24% on the terrific quarter.
Steven Madden’s (NSDQ: SHOO) weakness is a buying opportunity, says Susquehanna analyst Sam Poser. He notes the company met consensus in a difficult operating environment and remains best-in-class regarding speed-to-market with clean inventory that positions it for long-term profitable growth. Poser reiterated his Positive rating and $48 price target.
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