ANI Pharma Delivers Holiday Cheer on Possible Buy Out and Why Ichor Sagged a Bit
Welcome back from the first of the big holiday weekends this season. It’s not just the shopping and chopping and holiday festivities that shift into high gear once Thanksgiving passes, the stock market enters its own version of holiday frenzy with the advent of December.
Once asset managers have year-end in striking distance, the stock market often slips into whirlpools of temporary irrationality. This can be due to managers selling stocks that are way up to lock in gains, selling those that are big losers to lock in taxable losses (to offset those just noted gains) and frantic jumps and bumps in stocks due to the diminished trading volume on many days.
I love these moments of aberrant trading and will be looking to pounce on some new ideas that I’ve been researching and looking for the best entry points. If it works for your lifestyle, make sure you are signed up for trading text alerts. While many of my stock ideas are not super time sensitive, options trading is often very volatile and receiving a timely alert for those trades is more important.
Around the Portfolio:
ANI Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: ANIP) delivered some holiday goodies last week. The stock rocketed up 18% on Friday due to renewed buyout rumors. I cannot discern the root of the rumor but do note the company added language to its most recent SEC quarterly filing that entitles management to some generous payout terms if the company experiences a “change of control.” This addition is new language and a clue that it is possibly discussing a deal with suitors.
As a reminder, I recommended ANI Pharma last February based on the blockbuster potential of its generic corticotropin drug that it has been advancing in manufacturing trials with the FDA. On the last quarter call management noted it had finalized and secured the supply chain of materials for this hard to make drug.
The stock is up 21% since the recommendation, primarily due to the boost last week. Before this movement, the stock was weighed down with the overall drug group. It is still below my $100 target and trading just below my suggested $78 limit price. This limit means I suggest buying the stock up to $78.
After a big week when it reported a robust third quarter, Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) trod water last week. I expect the stock to climb higher as investors collect positive nuggets regarding its holiday sales.
Just last week SunTrust analyst Pamela Quintiliano noted that Gap’s Old Navy looks like a holiday ‘winner’ based on her measurement of crowds in the stores over the holiday weekend. While these qualitative checks do not always produce an accurate assessment of a retailer’s eventual sales, they typically trend correctly, especially when a company, like Gap, has strong momentum behind its merchandising.
I’ve been digging for a reason that Ichor Systems (NSDQ: ICHR) was relatively soft last week. The stock fell 9% last Thursday on huge volume. I cannot find a single fundamental reason for the drop.
I did find some technical analysts, analysts who attempt to predict short-term action in stocks based solely on a stock’s chart (price and volume in particular), who noted that the stock is hitting a resistance level. These predictions, if popular enough, can become self-fulfilling prophecies. However, I am an avid believer that fundamentals, that is, how healthy a company’s business is, trump technical analysis. I will keep my ears open for any news that would sway my support of this stock.
Management of Steven Madden (NSDQ: SHOO) will meet with investors in New York on November 28 at meetings hosted by Buckingham Research. These meetings are typically closed-door sessions only for customers of Buckingham. I will, however, be watching the stock action closely to see if management is giving off any positive vibes.
It is illegal for management to provide any information in these sessions that has not already been publicly disclosed, but there is a wealth of “data” that can be collected by the tone and mood of management in these meetings.
Vulcan Materials (NYSE: VMC) might get a much-needed boost this week due to a positive mention in Barron’s financial magazine. In an article entitled, “If They Build It, These Stocks Should Rally,” author John Kimelman notes that skepticism regarding the administration passing any infrastructure spending may be overdone.
He quotes Geoffrey Segal, a senior vice president of government advisory and affairs at Macquarie Capital, a global firm that invests in infrastructure, who believes some form of infrastructure spending will be passed next year, “It’s not tax reform or Obamacare; it’s not politically charged,” he says. “It’s roads and bridges, and things that both parties agree are needed. Everybody wants infrastructure.”
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