New Trades on the Horizon and Keep Cool with The Chemours Company Despite Downgrade
Although I love the action of earnings season, it is in the lull between quarters that I get my best research done. With a bundle of new information, I can analyze the most recent trends in revenue and profits from hundreds of public companies to find new trade ideas.
Keep your eyes peeled for some new trade recommendations this week. I have a few that I am very excited about and am putting the finishing touches on my analysis.
In my research process, I quickly discard most of the names due to valuation concerns or lack of robust patterns in their numbers. I whittle the list down to a pile of super interesting stocks and then start giving each company’s income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement a real workout to ensure all the metrics support my thesis.
This long and running list of tickers eventually morphs into Profit Catalyst Alert trades. They are split between longs and shorts.
You will notice all of my long stock recommendations are based on the fundamentals specific to that company. I usually include a call option recommendation for all long trades for subscribers who prefer the leverage of options trading.
Many of my options-only trade recommendations are based on broader industry-wide patterns. This is where I uncover a lesser known bias in a group that I believe will move the group in the near term. These options trades can either be bullish (via calls) or bearish (via puts). I attempt to time those trades to some future event, either an earnings call or industry-specific conference.
You can see under the closed trades tab that many of these options trades are incredibly profitable in a short period of time. Of course, I can’t promise each new trade will result in similar numbers but the thought process is the same.
Once the market quiets down in between the chaos of earnings reports, I have the necessary time to work through each one, and I am making significant progress.
Around the portfolio:
Although I officially sold the Air Transport Services (NSDQ: ATSG) calls last week, I am aware that some subscribers were not able to sell in a timely fashion. Fear not. The stock rocketed up last Monday above the $25 strike price, and I chose to book the gain.
These calls do not expire until March 2018, and I expect them to trade higher as the stock creeps back above the strike price. I am still very bullish on Air Transport Service’s future. I will keep subscribers up to date on the movement in the calls.
The Chemours Company (NYSE: CC) had quite a week. The stock dropped a bit more than 3% due to a downgrade to neutral by Goldman Sachs. Analyst Robert Koort lowered his price target to $64 from $55 due to concerns over Ti02 pricing. Ti02 is a specialty chemical sold by The Chemours that is used in coatings for automotive, architectural and industrial applications.
I’ve noted several times that the new MiFID regulation taking place this January is causing sell-side brokerage analysts to deliver more radical stock ratings to prove their worth. I think this downgrade is a misplaced effort.
At its December 1st analyst day, management supported mid-teens earnings growth for the foreseeable future and gave little indication that pricing for Ti02 or more importantly that trends in the environmentally green refrigerant market are softening.
The Chemours is up 75% since my recommendation last February. I certainly do not want to let that gain slip through our hands. However, The Chemours Company’s unique position as one of the two global suppliers of Opteon, a green refrigerant that is being mandated globally, should propel its profits.
You can be sure I’m keeping my eye on these trends and will alert you if I change my opinion.
Barclays Bank initiated coverage of PRA Health (NSDQ: PRAH) with an Overweight rating and $94 price target. Analyst Jack Meehan believes the integration of data into clinical trials is going to become a “need to have” service for big pharma and biotech customers.
Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) continues to haul itself up. Brokerage firm Seaport Global initiated a Buy rating on the stock last week with a $15 target. While this target is well below my $22 target, it is refreshing to see some optimism on a stock that I believe has been unfairly beat up.
Fears of fracking sand oversupply knocked the stock down 44% since my March 2017 recommendation. Yet the company has reported spectacular earnings each quarter and should continue to prosper with its unique grade of sand and its improved logistics to deliver sand efficiently to customers.
Stock Talk
MODERATOR: Lisa G
I received neither an email nor a text for this. Do we not get those if it is not a buy or sell alert?
Derek: Las Vegas, NV
No, Lisa, we don’t.
Derek
MODERATOR: Lisa G
Thanks Derek.
Derek: Las Vegas, NV
Hey, I was just thinking, you should get the end of the day Wealth Society email. In that email, you will see all the days articles, but we don’t get a special text or email for articles like we do with trade alerts.
Derek
MODERATOR: Lisa G
Yes, I got that which is when I realized I had not received an email or text about this. The frustrating thing is that when 2 alerts come out in one day (whether OFI, VT or this) only one email/text alert frequently comes out. There are not always 2.
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Linda McDonough
Lisa,
Be sure you are signed up for text alerts for trades. The weekly update is emailed to subscribers but I post it on the site first, so there is usually a lag between the time it is posted and you see it in your mailbox.
However, trade alerts are emailed and texted almost immediately. Many subscribers find it helpful to receive the text alerts, especially for the options trades where prices move quickly.
Thanks for the questions and Derek- thanks for the help!
Best,
Linda
MODERATOR: Lisa G
Linda,
I have text alerts set up and always have. But I am not allowed to have my phone in my office so those don’t do me much good. I rely on timely emails and checking the website. With OFI and VT, new trades are always posted at night so I can set them up before I go to work. But PCA is not like that so it is more hit or miss for me, and probably others like myself who work, as sometimes it is impossible to set up a trade during the workday.
Lisa
Linda McDonough
Lisa,
Thank you for the feedback. I will take that into consideration and perhaps send out the trade alerts the night before with price parameters.
Best,
Linda
MODERATOR: Lisa G
Linda,
If possible that would be great. I know that things can change overnight and it can make it difficult. Thanks for considering that.
Lisa
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John H Flagg
I’m just trying to start–Help
Linda McDonough
Hi John,
Welcome. Thank you for trying out the service. I think you’ll find it quite valuable once you find your way around.
I suggest starting with the New Member Guide which can be found under the “More” menu above.
On the main page is a list of stocks and options trades that I am currently recommending. Any stock with a green buy button is trading below my suggested limit price, those with a gray button have traded above the suggested limit price. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still valid buys but just that your upside might be a bit more limited.
Please let me know if you have any further questions. I’ll give a thorough update on all the options trades next Monday. Currently, the four I would still recommend for purchase are CELG, BIVV, EBS and ATSG.
Best,
Linda
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