It’s been a rough few weeks for my options trade suggestions. I’m sure this is not new news to anyone but it merits some discussion.

I have noted before and will reiterate that options are notoriously difficult beasts. In order to generate a profit, you must first choose a price you think a stock will reach (the strike price) and then the time frame in which this will occur (the expiration). Then, of course, there is the million dollar question of when exactly to buy the option.

I attempt to limit these risks as much as possible. I create and maintain financial models on each and every option (and stock) that I suggest. Many of the option trade suggestions are timed to coincide with an event. For the truckers, that was earnings, for Facebook (NYSE: FB) and Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), they are conferences and earnings dates.

The truckers all delivered terrific earnings but the stocks tanked. What happened? My best guess is that the stocks had run up hard into the earnings events. The market was volatile, interest rates are creeping up and some chose to rotate out of what is considered a cyclical group.

This is partly why I chose further out expiration dates on some. Despite being correct on fundamentals, an analyst or portfolio manager can be wrong on the stock movement. And if you’re keeping score, many (including myself) can simply be wrong in the analysis.

I believe my quarter century of experience analyzing stocks aids in finding profitable stock and option ideas. On stock ideas when I am wrong, it is easier to exit the position. I purposely focus on profitable, well-financed companies which tend to retain value better than other stocks.

On options, the value can geometrically grow or shrink overnight. When the value falls dramatically in a short period of time, my experience has been that despite the risk of them expiring worthless, the chance of the stock rebounding (or falling in the case of puts) is often a better bet than selling for pennies.

That is a long-winded way of saying- I feel your pain. I am diligently working on new ideas and monitoring those already in the PCA portfolio. Every person I know working with the market has dealt with these ego-bruising episodes. The good news is that they do not last forever. In the meantime, I will keep you updated on all news moving the portfolio.

Around the Portfolio:

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) rocked the retail world with a sloppy fourth-quarter earnings report. This helped push Big Lots below the suggested $57.50 strike price. These put options are basically trading flat with my entry price.

I don’t see the disappointment in Walmart’s e-commerce sales as correlated to Big Lots at all but am happy to take the drop in the stock. However, a recent announcement that Walmart is selling a private label mattress line (named Allswell) will compete directly with the Serta mattresses that have been driving gains in the company’s furniture segment.

Big Lots should report earnings in the first week of March. I will alert you when the date and call information is available.

Emergent BioSolutions (NYSE: EBS) reported a much better than expected quarter but lowered first-quarter estimates due to a shift in deliveries of BioThrax, its anthrax vaccine. As a reminder, the company received a $100 million 2-year contract from the federal government in March 2017.

Large orders like this tend to be lumpy (delivered in larger batches) so I am not concerned about a bigger demand issue. I sold the March $50 calls on February 16 but will keep you up on any news events. These calls expire on March 16th so if they don’t come back to life by the end of this week, they will quickly lose time value and should be sold.

Facebook will present at a Morgan Stanley media conference on February 28th at 3 PM (EST). I expect soft trends in Facebook’s user base to be discussed and send the stock lower.

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) had its price target raised to $150 from $99 at Morgan Stanley. I don’t have access to the full report but this is a significant increase in target and I expect should revitalize the group (including SAIA (NSDQ: SAIA) and Werner (NSDQ: WERN), where we still own calls).

Unfortunately, the Old Dominion February calls expired worthless. This is always a risk when purchasing options and I suggest subscribers tailor positions to reflect this risk.

Target (NYSE: TGT) launched a new home brand last week. The brand, named Opalhouse, will be available in stores and online beginning April 8 and features more than 1,300 products in bedding, bath, decor, tabletop, and furniture, with most items priced under $30.

The company will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2017 financial results the morning of March 6.  Later that morning from approximately 11:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. (EST) management will discuss its strategic and financial plans and provide guidance for the company’s expected fiscal 2018 financial performance.

Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) got hit last week coincident with a poor outlook from competitor U.S. Silica (NSDQ: SLCA). While most of the profit pressure Silica suffered from seems due to a recent transportation acquisition, it also warned of weak orders in January.

Management noted that orders have picked up in February and that they believe the dip was due to extreme weather.

Smart Sand won’t report its fourth quarter until mid-March but we might get some insight from a presentation by management at a brokerage conference on Feb. 28. My checks with industry participants point to continued strong sand demand.